The S&P BSE Midcap and the S&P BSE Smallcap indices have managed to stay afloat in a volatile January that saw the frontline indices hit their respective 52-week high levels and then slip. While the S&P BSE Sensex has lost over 2 per cent thus far in January, the S&P BSE Midcap and the S&P BSE Smallcap indices have gained nearly 2.5 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively during this period.
Amid chaos, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam general council meeting in Chennai on Thursday rejected all the 23 proposed resolutions and announced that the one and only demand of the GC members is to bring in a system of a single leadership for the party, favouring joint coordinator Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS).
There is nothing to suggest that the DMK stands to gain from the AIADMK split nor is there anything indicative of an extraordinary advantage for the BJP, independently or in the company of the AIADMK, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
Nifty50's earnings growth, estimated at 20 per cent by global research and brokerage firm Jefferies for financial year 2023-24 (FY24), will be amongst the top three in the Asian region, and is likely to outperform peers. Asean 40 index with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth and Straits Times Index (STI) with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth are the only two other indices in the Asian region that are likely to outperform India, suggests the recent Jefferies report, coauthored by Mahesh Nandurkar, their managing director along with Abhinav Sinha and Nishant Poddar.
The Wall Street major Morgan Stanley has upgraded India to "standout overweight" citing that the relative economic and earnings growth is improving and the macro-stability setup looks sufficient to withstand the higher real rate environment. "India remains standout overweight. "We increase our overweight stance on Indian equities and as our most-preferred emerging market," the brokerage said in a note on Friday.
The power struggle in Tamil Nadu's main opposition party, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, appears set to go on for a long time with sidelined leader O Panneerselvam (OPS) approaching the Election Commission and the influential Edappadi K Palaniswami camp refusing to budge.
A new era of Indian equity market outperformance compared to China "appears to be dawning", according to Morgan Stanley. The firm has upgraded India to overweight in its Asia Pacific-excluding Japan (APxJ) list, making it their most preferred market not only in the region but also in the global emerging market (GEM) pack. India now holds the top position in this category, with an overweight of 75 basis points, a significant increase from nil previously.
Even without Shah's TN visit and the rest, the increasing bonhomie between the BJP and the AIADMK factions in the state have become more visible than ever in the post-Jaya era, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
'The BJP plans to win 10 (Lok Sabha) seats (in Tamil Nadu) and the alliance (with the AIADMK) 20 seats in 2024.'
The Rs 17,000 crore-share buyback programme of India's top software services exporter Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) will open on December 1. The buyback, where investors can sell to the company their shares at an offer price of Rs 4,150 apiece, will close on December 7, TCS said in a regulatory filing on Tuesday. The information technology bellwether is aiming to repurchase up to 4.09 crore shares (1.12 per cent of the total equity share capital) at Rs 4,150 apiece in a buyback valued at Rs 17,000 crore.
There is a sudden realisation in party circles that prolonged court cases could damage its standing, both among the cadres and voters, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
'One quiver cannot have two different kinds of arrows.' 'The party cannot progress with two leaders.'
The BJP game-plan: Take the top slot, or a close second, either for the 'Lotus' or the larger NDA, if it can and push the AIADMK to the third place, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
The BJP has nothing to lose after a point. For the DMK it is a difficult choice, as it would not want to give too much of space to a 'national party' lest the 'Dravidian duel' of the past decades should be lost forever, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
ITC stock slipped over 4 per cent on Thursday (February 8) after British American Tobacco (BAT) said it could sell some of its stake in the company, recovering partially in trade. The stock of the cigarette-to-hotels conglomerate traded at Rs 420 levels, rising 1.3 per cent in intraday deals as compared to the S&P BSE Sensex that traded flat for most part of the day. The development, meanwhile, saw Jefferies downgrade the stock to 'hold' from 'buy' earlier with a target price of Rs 430, down a huge 17.3 per cent from its earlier price target of Rs 520.
The meeting of the newly-elected MLAs to elect the legislature party leader, the second within three days, reportedly saw exchanges on who should lead the party in the House with one section pitching for Palaniswami and the other for coordinator O Panneerselvam.
'When they completely surrender to the BJP or the BJP has completely taken over the party, what's the point in the AIADMK surviving and doing business in the state?'
Due to unseasonal rains, the second quarter of financial year 2023-24 (Q2FY24) was disappointing for the room-air conditioner (RAC) segment and Q3FY23 was also slow. While general consumption demand was low in Q3FY24, the low base and the pent-up demand from the first half of financial year 2023-24 (H1FY24) seem to have driven an off-season demand for RACs.
Hindustan Unilever's Q3FY24 performance was lacklustre, with both sales and operating profit barely moving from the year-ago period due to price cuts and higher advertising costs. Besides weak demand, the FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) major is facing increased competitive pressures, particularly from regional players, which, coupled with a slow recovery in rural markets, could put revenues under pressure going forward. Margins are expected to remain range-bound as benefits from falling raw material costs are expected to be neutralised by rising promotional budgets.
Stalin still enjoys a lot of sympathy and empathy as someone wishing well for the state, but not full-throated support as in 2019 and 2021, notes N Sathiya Moorthy.
'The Nifty index looks to be 20 per cent overvalued as per our model after moving up more than 10 per cent in the last two months.'
Analystsare showing optimism in Sensex EPS growth after double digit growth in the second quarter of current year.
'If he has not achieved 'Congress mukt Bharat' even now, the question of his creating a 'DMK mukt Tamil Nadu' does not arise,' points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
Brokerages have maintained their ratings and target prices on FSN E-Commerce Ventures, the parent company of Nykaa, after the fashion and beauty online retailer posted in-line numbers during the October-December quarter (Q3) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24). They have, however, cut earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) estimates after weak demand weighed across line items in Q3. "While revenue growth was healthy at 22 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), gross margins declined 90 basis points (bps), weighed by higher discounting in own brands and lower ad income.
A division bench, comprising Justices M Duraiswamy and Sundar Mohan, set aside an order of a single judge, which nullified the July 11 General Council (GC) meeting of the AIADMK.
O Panneerselvam should not be surprised if the current controversy that he has kicked off is used to rid him of the party coordinator's post, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam's dominant Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) camp on Monday slammed rival leader O Panneerselvam (OPS) as a symbol of 'betrayal' and said the upcoming general council meet shall decide whether OPS would continue as party treasurer or not.
rediffGURU and financial planning expert Colonel Sanjeev Govila (retd) will answer your personal finance-related questions.
The board of Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) on Tuesday approved a proposal to issue shares worth Rs 12,841 crore to parent company Suzuki Motor Corporation (SMC) for acquiring Suzuki Motor Gujarat (SMG). The Gujarat manufacturing plant - with an annual capacity of 750,000 units - is owned by SMG, a wholly-owned subsidiary of SMC. The shares issued to SMC will raise its ownership in MSIL from 56.48 per cent to 58.19 per cent--India's largest carmaker stated in a notice to BSE.
Amid cooling raw material prices, the crude-oil linked companies, which includes paint and tyre firms, have been on a roll over the past one year. Shares of related companies have gained up to 84 per cent, as against a 14 per cent rise in the S&P BSE Sensex. Analysts, however, believe stretched valuations in both these sectors could trigger a de-rating.
The order passed by Justice G Jayachandran on Wednesday, in effect held invalid the July 11 GC meeting.
The Madras high court on Thursday ruled that no unannounced resolutions could be taken up at the meeting of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam general and executive councils in Chennai, restraining the camp led by joint co-ordinator Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) from initiating any such move over the possible single leadership issue.
With both the factions pledging their support, the BJP believes that the natural corollary is for them to now merge and retain the two-leaves election symbol, a view shared by the prime minister as well.
'We are not worried about raids. We have nothing to hide.'
For now, the DMK can be expected to sound the bugle for Opposition unity at the national level, predicts N Sathiya Moorthy.
Crude and gas supply concerns have eased amid reports that Israel and Hamas have struck a peace deal. The International Energy Agency estimates oil demand may drop slightly in calendar 24 but Opec probably has enough pricing power to maintain $80/ barrel Brent prices. Russia's share of India's crude imports remained strong at about 35 per cent in September 2023.
Large Indian IT services companies are expected to report "muted" sequential show in a traditionally strong second quarter, as macroeconomic challenges continue to weigh on global discretionary spending, say market watchers. The big earnings week for tech heavyweights is up ahead, with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) scheduled to announce its results on October 11, and both Infosys and HCL Technologies on October 12. Wipro is slated to declare its Q2FY24 results next week, on October 18.
Even as the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam's general council meeting got underway in Chennai on Monday morning, endorsing Edappadi K Palaniswami as the interim general secretary, the rival O Panneerselvam faction staged a well-planned coup at the party headquarters in Royapettah, central Chennai.
Analysts have turned cautious on Cipla, as the recently issued form 483 by the US FDA with eight observations to its Pithampur (Indore) plant is expected to delay the launch of the company's key generic - Advair - in the US. The Indore plant contributes around 5 per cent of Cipla's revenues, as per analysts' estimates. While the respiratory product, which is used to treat asthma, had cleared the pre-approval inspection of the regulator at the Indore unit; the final approval could be unlikely until the company clears the recent US FDA observations, analysts say.
It should not surprise anyone if either of the contending parties in the 'TN speaker's case' comes up with a submission for referring the matter of 'speaker's powers' to a Constitution Bench. In political terms it could buy more time for the Edappadi camp, to settle down and stabilise itself, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
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