When everyone has footage and no one can verify it, the loudest voice wins, notes Prem Panicker who begins a daily blog on the War in the Middle East.
'Was the five-day pause ever meant to hold, or was it simply another instrument of signaling, of positioning, of buying time in a war where even the pauses are tactical?' asks Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
What we are watching is something different: A fog manufactured and maintained by the people who started the war, so that the question of why it was started never has to be answered, observes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the war in the Middle East.
Alliances fight wars effectively only when they share an endgame. If Israel acted without US knowledge, then the military alliance is operating without real coordination at the level of strategic targeting. Neither picture is reassuring in a war that is no longer regional in its consequences. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
The pause gives the US time to breathe, to regroup, to move its expeditionary force into position without risk of interception along the way. It gives Iran nothing -- on the ground, attacks against its infrastructure continue apace. Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
The question is no longer whether the war will expand. It has. The next few days will tell us whether the war stabilises around Hormuz or whether the Strait itself becomes the trigger for a far larger rupture. What to watch for over the next 48 hours is simple: Any move by the US toward direct naval control of the Strait; any credible Iranian attempt to disrupt or mine shipping lanes and, critically, whether energy infrastructure in the Gulf continues to be targeted.If those lines are crossed in tandem, the war will no longer be containable within the region.
Israel and the United States had a plan. Iran punched back. And now the Gulf is reeling, the world is beginning to feel the pain and, as on date, no one in Washington or Tel Aviv appears willing to admit that the punch has landed, notes Prem Panicker, continuing his must-read blog on the war in the Middle East.
'There is no independently verified imagery or battlefield evidence to support Pakistan's claim.'
United States development aid to countries are now inspired by military doctrine and patterned on the Nine Principles of War, found in every American soldier's manuel, according to the USAID administrator.
'It is no accident that politicians strive to control sports bodies, and get their names associated with popular sports, sometimes by renaming stadiums after themselves,' observes Devangshu Datta.
The days of a thousand cuts are over. These mini wars will remain under the threshold of undeniable war, but will escalate closer to that threshold when their big brother pushes in. Chinese aggression has changed the matrix, the strategies, and surely the objectives too, warns David Devadas.
'Could the Chinese have taken a leaf out of our book?' 'That their unprecedented build-up is their attempt at coercive diplomacy with India?' 'And if so, what is it that they could be expecting as a quid pro quo?' asks Shekhar Gupta.
'Perhaps the most important political trend affecting armed conflict in the 21st century, will be in the relationship between civilians and those who fight on their behalf,' points out Lieutenant General Anil Chait (retd), who served as chief of the Integrated Defence Staff and Central Army Commander.
The strategic illiteracy on display in the arguments put forth on the Rafale deal before the Supreme Court is breathtaking, argues Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
'India has both the wherewithal and the will to fight the enemy, but is living in a make believe world of its own since it is yet to accept that it is indeed at war,' says military historian Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
The strategic success of the surgical strikes has not matched their brilliant tactical achievement, says Shekhar Gupta.
