A likely easing in inflationary pressures in the forthcoming months will reopen the window for the RBI to once again prioritise growth and ease its interest rates.
It would be a good idea to create independent oversight committees for each regulatory institution and indeed, even for their appellate bodies, says A K Bhattacharya.
In case the repo rate keeps trending downwards, borrowers can expect a downward revision of their MCLR-linked loans.
During March, the rate of inflation slowed to the weakest in four months and was below the long-run survey average
Net sales growth for the quarter ended December (Q3FY20) was 4.5 per cent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis for companies that have declared their results so far, compared to an 8.4 per cent rise in the first half of the financial year. This indicates that there could be a further rise in days' sales of inventory.
The reform priorities are clear: enhance savings, improve productivity. Just 25 basis points of moving interest rate up or down would not boost investment: Former RBI Governor Y V Reddy.
To a specific question on the change in RBI's stance from "neutral" to "accommodative", Das said it means that there will not be any rate hike from here on.
If this turns into reality, India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be the lowest since 2012-13, which could severely hit job creation and income growth in the near term.
While efforts are being mounted on a war footing to arrest its spread, COVID-19 will impact economic activity in India directly through domestic lockdown. The second-round effects, it said, would operate through a severe slowdown in global trade and growth.
Patra, as executive director of the central bank, was the principal advisor to the Monetary Policy Department since July 2012.
'Prime Minister Modi stated several times that we shall not let this challenge go away without converting it into an opportunity to undertake systemic reforms.' 'And hasn't that been reiterated in action?'
It further pointed out that the twin balance sheet problem -- at the end of banks and corporate -- more attractive interest rates for borrowers in the bond market and from non-banking financial institutions are other reasons for slow bank credit growth.
Growth impulses, while improving, remain fragile, and a rate hike will be disruptive to interest costs.
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has been pursuing hawkish monetary policy stance to keep inflation under check.
Prices of food articles contracted by 3.47 per cent in June on a yearly basis. Vegetable inflation stood at (-)21.16 per cent.
The 6-member Monetary Policy Committee, headed by Reserve Bank of India Governor Urjit Patel, in its fifth bi-monthly review, kept the repo rate unchanged at 6 per cent and reverse repo at 5.75 per cent.
A weak dollar overseas also aided the rupee rise while fresh sell-off by foreign funds in domestic stocks capped the currency's gains, forex dealers said.
The final and most significant reset in the relations between the government and the RBI is the manner in which the process of appointing the governor and deputy governors of the central bank has been changed.
Reversal in the declining economic growth trajectory is clearly the need of the hour and all steps should be taken to bring about this change.
A two-year extension at the helm of the RBI still looks a real possibility
The broad market depicted strength. 1,525 shares rose and 1,131 shares fell. A total of 156 shares remained unchanged
Since last month, the realty (down 23%), auto (down 16%) and finance (down 14%) indices have underperformed the market by falling over 13%, as against 8% decline in the benchmark indices
Delivering a public speech hours after the RBI launched a rescue act for Yes Bank on March 6, Governor Shaktikanta Das reiterated the RBI's affirmation to do whatever was needed to combat the coronavirus impact. On that day, India had only one confirmed COVID-19 infection, the World Health Organisation was five days off from declaring it as a pandemic and the financially debilitating lockdowns were not even on the horizon. Das' promise on efforts to mitigate COVID-19 impact appeared as a footnote in news reports from the event.
If imputed inflation for April and May is used, then you have inflation of over 6 per cent for two consecutive quarters, which is a worrying signal for the RBI.
Rajan said the process of dialogue with the government did not reach a stage where he could have agreed to stay on
CII suggested the policy measures required to ease the tight liquidity situation by cutting CRR by at least 50 basis points.
The supply-side driven inflationary pressures, from food or fuel prices, would be mitigated by a neutral stance and a prolonged pause on rates, says Gaurav Kapur.
The bond market expects at least 25 basis points cut in the June 6 policy.
Given the pressure from India Inc and the banking fraternity, it is surmised that the portfolio rejig will take place before April.
RBI targets to keep inflation at 4 per cent, (+/- 2 per cent), and its rise beyond this comfort zone will put pressure on the central bank to hike rates.
During the month, inflation in vegetables shot up to 35.99 per cent, as against 26.10 per cent in October. Likewise, the prices of cereals and eggs grew at a faster pace of 3.71 per cent.
'Banks are being encouraged to lend instead of parking their resources with the RBI and earn risk-free interest income,' points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'Three external members of the first MPC are respected researchers with excellent academic background, but there is no harm in considering academicians with diverse backgrounds such as finance and labour along with economists for this body,' recommends Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Currency scarcity weighed on manufacturing performance where growth of new work flows slowed
RBI governor Das flags growth slowdown, deputy raises alarm on inflation
As the government plans to take sector-specific steps to tackle the slump, Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman will soon hold talks with representatives from various sectors to get and take steps so that the confidence of those sectors can be restored.
'If there is an RBI majority in the committee, there is no question of a veto.'
Chetan Ghate, Pami Dua and Ravindra Dholakia have been appointed for 4 years
If banks cannot charge interest from borrowers during the moratorium, who will bear that cost? Should the depositors subsidise the borrowers by foregoing interest on deposits? In that case, we will turn banking on its head! notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Governments that do not respect central banks' independence will sooner or later incur the wrath of the financial markets, ignite economic fires, and come to rue the day they undermined an important regulatory institution; their wiser counterparts who invest in central bank independence will enjoy lower costs of borrowing, the love of international investors, and longer life spans, said Acharya, who will return to the New York University's Stern Business School in August.
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