Inflation and interest rates seem to be on top of everyone's mind at the moment.
'The large scale and widespread shrinking of the labour force in November, the peaking of unemployment in October and the fall in lead indicators in October and November point towards a worsening of the slowdown of the Indian economy in the third quarter of 2019-20,' says Mahesh Vyas.
The BJP needs to worry about the kinds of professions it has landed up glorifying -- chai vendors, pakora vendors and now guards. These are not professions that any one of its voters would like to cherish, points out Mahesh Vyas.
Indian economy is expected to grow by 7.4 per cent in 2003-04 and the next year is also likely to be good for the country, according to a top official of Centre for Monitoring Economy.
It's high time we now turn the popular question on its head -- when there is no growth in jobs for several years, how can the real GDP grow at 7 per cent per annum, says Mahesh Vyas.
Rural and urban regions present different labour participation and employment levels. These differences also are not tuned to India exploiting its demographic dividend, says Mahesh Vyas.
If everyone had decent meaningful jobs, the rally maidans would be largely empty and, save for the Akhara babas and curious foreigners and the devout senior citizens, not very many would spare time for the Kumbh Mela, says Mahesh Vyas.
The independent institute advising the PM on jobs seems to have missed the point that the challenge is to create net additional jobs, says Mahesh Vyas.
The key to job creation is to increase labour participation - draw more people into the labour force and to provide them formal jobs in the organised sectors. Self-employment is not job creation, says, Mahesh Vyas.
The steady rise through most of July implies a greater demand for jobs. And most of this demand is being met, says Mahesh Vyas.
The recent improvement in consumer sentiment is almost entirely a rural India story. Much of the corporate sector reposes faith in rural India to fuel its growth, observes Mahesh Vyas.
The fall in urban sentiments in June is worrisome, observes Mahesh Vyas.
'If the 7 million estimate is true, then either our understanding of the past was all wrong or the economy has changed dramatically but so surreptitiously that we did not even notice it,' says Mahesh Vyas.
Can 3 crore out of the 8.9 crore young male population of the nine states set off on a pilgrimage that extends for about a month? If yes, then what can we infer regarding the state of the young working population in these states, asks Mahesh Vyas.
The Union Budget seems to have elicited a starkly opposite view from rural India compared to urbanites, says Mahesh Vyas.
Hopefully, the small recovery in the labour force and employment seen in the September-December 2017 wave will gather momentum in the coming waves, says Mahesh Vyas.The challenge, says Mahesh Vyas, is to find the corresponding jobs for these aspirants.
More people felt optimistic about their economic condition in November than in the same month a year ago, says Mahesh Vyas.
Only vaccinations can eliminate the threat of new waves, help raise sentiments and allow sellers and buyers to participate aggressively in the much awaited economic recovery, observes Mahesh Vyas.
It is necessary that at least three million additional jobs (if not more) are created every year to ensure that there isn't an increase in the stock of unemployed, says Mahesh Vyas.
'In India, a large proportion of the labour force does not have a regular job.' 'People are mostly employed as daily wage workers, agricultural labourers, small farmers and self-employed traders.' 'These move in and out of "jobs" fairly rapidly.' 'It is the high proportion of these workers in India that makes unemployment volatile,' explains Mahesh Vyas.
The elections held in April-May 2019 will be an important determinant of future growth and investment.
Nothing in India's recent history suggests that India can provide 8-9 million jobs a year, let alone generate 50 million jobs in any reasonable time, notes Mahesh Vyas.
India Inc closed FY15 on a positive note.
The lockdown has taught companies a lesson or two on running business with fewer human resources. These lessons are unlikely to be forgotten, observes Mahesh Vyas.
The biggest worry is not the shrinking of the labour market, but the collapse of good jobs.
Concerned by the continuous downward revision in the monthly net enrolment numbers, the EPFO has begun counting people quitting their previous jobs and joining a new one as an addition to the net payroll. According to experts these people cannot be counted as those who got a new job.
'Usually, urban wage rates are 50 per cent higher than rural wage rates. But, this could be narrowing very rapidly now,' points out Mahesh Vyas, CEO, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.
Users of employment / unemployment statistics can enjoy the benefits of -- initially the speed of private enterprise and then, the stamp of official statistics with a hopefully small time lag, says Mahesh Vyas.
The 30-day moving average of the unemployment rate had climbed up much ahead by January 6, to 7.8%, says Mahesh Vyas.
The central government's deposits with the RBI had fallen to just Rs 100 crore as of June 8.
The study says the entire supply chain of goods and services will suffer a massive liquidity shock.
Rising unemployment rate reflects a rise in the labour participation rate, which in India's case has been worryingly low.
'Of the 9.5 million unemployed who stopped looking for jobs, nearly seven million were young.' 'Is it possible that the young decided to continue with studies rather than look for jobs?' asks Mahesh Vyas.
As of the week ended July 2017, the unemployment rate was 3.1 per cent. This is the lowest unemployment rate recorded. Rural unemployment was also very low at 2.8 per cent.
'Falling labour participation rate is common in the ageing populations of the developed world.' 'But India is a country with a young population.' 'It is imperative that the labour participation increases.' 'We need a larger labour force to increase our per capita income level,' points out Mahesh Vyas.
Sticky labour laws and a difficult business environment have led to employers shifting their new hiring in favour of contract labour where social security is much lesser, says Mahesh Vyas.
Violence is just too stark, too TRP friendly and so it gets a lot of attention in the media. But the crime of discrimination is much worse because it is much greater, it attracts no attention and it has no recourse, says Mahesh Vyas.
'It does not look like unemployment is a priority for the government.' 'If there was one external factor which could have made an impact on low investment and low jobs, it was the Budget and it has not made any difference.' '2020 is going to be a difficult and challenging year.'
There is an attempt to brush aside the results of all surveys that point to a deteriorating jobs situation. This is counter-productive, says Mahesh Vyas.
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