January 2021 more than recovered the loss of employment of the past three months, notes Mahesh Vyas.
The outlook cut is based on a weak premise since the economy is expected to rebound this fiscal but a wake-up call was needed.
The finance minister did very well for equity market investors but not so with families, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
It is important to increase employment in general. It is even better to increase good quality jobs. Strategically, it is important to move people from farms to factories to improve overall labour productivity. It is important to improve job opportunities for women, for urbanites and for the educated. The Budget does not contain ideas to do any of this, points out Mahesh Vyas.
Those who lost jobs in December were women, graduates, post graduates, salaried employees, observes Mahesh Vyas.
'The cost of the lockdown so far is the loss of about 11 million jobs.' 'It is important that a fresh lockdown does not make this worse,' asserts Mahesh Vyas.
The count of the unemployed mounted to 38.7 million in December 2020 compared to 27.4 million in November, registering a massive increase of 11.3 million, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
The cut in wages by companies whose operations were not shut by the lockdown was more likely opportunistic than out of business compulsions to survive the lockdown. If this is true, then it is worth wondering what kind of opportunism was this? Was it to make a quick buck or was it to use a crisis to engineer a structural change that was necessary, asks Mahesh Vyas.
'By November 2020, men recovered most of their lost jobs, but women were less fortunate: 49 per cent of the job losses by November were of women.' 'The recovery has benefited all, but it benefited women less than it did men,' notes Mahesh Vyas.
Governments seem to be a lot more wary of imposing a draconian lockdown this time. Some lessons seem to have been learned. So, it may be fair to assume that these lockdowns will do less harm. But they will hurt the recovery process, which is still incomplete, warns Mahesh Vyas.
The country's demographic dividend is dissipating, with seriously adverse consequences for young India, asserts Shankar Acharya, former Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India.
These companies provide better quality jobs and so it is particularly reassuring to see these jobs grow faster than the overall growth of jobs in India, says Mahesh Vyas.
The addition of a million jobs as promised by Tejashwi Yadav would make a big impact. But the electorate needs to raise its expectations, notes Mahesh Vyas.
Keeping the employment rate from slipping is challenging. To merely keep the employment rate unchanged, the economy has to generate additional jobs. It needs to run to stay where it is, points out Mahesh Vyas.
The labour participation rate tells us how many of the working age population are willing to be employed. If this proportion keeps falling as it evidently is, it does not bode well for India's growth story. It renders all stories of a revival in the economy as a myth, warns Mahesh Vyas.
The recovery seen in the increased economic activity till September or October is running out of steam. Labour statistics indicate a substantial slowing down of the economy in November, notes Mahesh Vyas.
There were 86 million salaried jobs in India during 2019-2020. In August 2020, their count was down to 65 million. The deficit of 21 million jobs is the biggest among all types of employment, points out Mahesh Vyas.
The investor is voting for safe investment avenues and is not impressed by the lucre promised by Dalal Street, says Mahesh Vyas.
Indian households database Consumer Pyramids answers why two years of high inflation did not matter to the consumers of the country.
This is one of the largest monthly increases in the labour force, observes Mahesh Vyas.
While the lockdown hit employment in all age groups, it hit the employment of youngsters who are less than 29 years of age much more. The lockdown also hit women more than it has affected men, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
'The economic impact of this lockdown is evidently huge.' 'Its impact on the livelihood of vulnerable sections of the society is immeasurably bigger,' observes Mahesh Vyas.
The biggest loss of jobs among salaried employees was of 'white-collar professional employees and other employees'. Among these are engineers including software engineers, physicians, teachers, accountants, analysts and so on, who are professionally qualified and are employed in some private or government organisation All the gains made in their employment over the past four years were washed away during the lockdown, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
'The impact of economic shocks on the labour markets is usually on the young who delay their entry in response to a fall in job opportunities,' says Mahesh Vyas.
'People are getting back to work.' 'The worst seems to be over.' 'It is very likely that the recovery is mostly among the informal, self-employed, workers who cannot afford to be away from work for too long,' notes Mahesh Vyas.
The continuation of the new investments boom and the greater success in completion of projects imply that the investment boom is on, and this augurs well for growth in 2010 and beyond.
'The high unemployment rate being witnessed today is not only the highest in three years but is far more debilitating for the economy than the similar unemployment rates witnessed in 2016,' says Mahesh Vyas.
'Over 27 million youngsters in their 20s lost their jobs in April.' '33 million men and women in their 30s lost jobs in April,' points out Mahesh Vyas.
The employment that is returning is mostly essential services required by Indian households. Most urban Indian households cannot function without a retinue of maids, cooks, drivers, cleaners, notes Mahesh Vyas.
Evidently, households see a brighter future after the Budget, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
Apart from signalling the shape of things to come, the stock markets are seen as an important source of funds for investment - so their health can be critical.
A change in the desire to buy consumer durables is perhaps the most important indicator of an economy changing direction, explains Mahesh Vyas.
An overwhelming proportion of the unemployed declare their nature of occupation as students. In the quarter ended December 2021, 77% of the unemployed who were actively looking for jobs were students. This syncs well with another data, that 77% of the unemployed are between 15 and 24 years of age, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
Unemployment was worse only in the pre-demonetisation period, according to the data, at 9.6 per cent in August 2016.
'The 5.3% growth in wages per employee is the lowest growth in nine years,' points out Mahesh Vyas.
'Wage earners are shrinking. In both, the organised and unorganised sectors. And, entrepreneurs are growing.' 'But the increase in entrepreneurship is of a kind that does not create salaried employment or daily wage employment,' says Mahesh Vyas.
Eighteen months after the economy was battered by the Covid-induced lockdown, employment has not recovered to its pre-pandemic levels, points out Mahesh Vyas.
Neither the CAA nor the proposed NRC are important enough to stake the well-being of so many or stake economic growth. Getting growth back on track is more important, notes Mahesh Vyas.
It was women who unambiguously bore the brunt of the lockdown joblessness, says Kanika Datta.
It keeps getting harder every day for the government to drive its narrative that ample jobs are being created. They sound increasingly silly as they try to defend the indefensible, says Mahesh Vyas.
© 2026 Rediff.com - Investor Information - Advertise with us - Disclaimer - Privacy Policy - Sitemap - Feedback - About us - Terms of use - Grievances