India, the world's fourth largest economy, is set to maintain the 'goldilocks' phase with tailwinds of good growth, low inflation and robust banking performance as well as reform initiatives poised to sustain the economic pace witnessed during 2025.
Wholesale price inflation extended upward momentum for the second straight month, recording at 0.83 per cent in December 2025, driven by an uptick in prices of food, non-food articles, and manufactured items on a month-on-month basis, government data showed on Wednesday. Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation returned to positive in December, after witnessing a deflationary trend in the previous two months.
In a world fractured by uncertainty, India stands out for its policy consistency, paired with sustained ambition, points out Pritam Banerjee.
The forthcoming Budget could think of maintaining public capital expenditure at 3 per cent so that domestic resources are available for private investments, points out N R Bhanumurthy.
'Economic activity appears to have peaked in the second quarter of FY26, with industrial output, exports, and business confidence all softening from October 2025.'
Retail inflation inched up to 0.71 per cent in November on rising prices of vegetables, protein-rich items, and fuel, government data showed on Friday. The consumer price index (CPI)-based retail inflation had fallen to a record low of 0.25 per cent in October, mainly due to lower prices helped by GST rate cuts and a favourable base.
The key question is how much of the latest growth record represents recovery from the 2020-2021 downturn, and what is the sustainable growth rate now, asks T N Ninan.
Wholesale price inflation (WPI) came in at (-) 0.32 per cent in November, driven by an uptick in prices of food articles like pulses and vegetables on a month-on-month basis, government data showed on Monday.
Sanjay Malhotra has made structural changes to banking regulation to bring down costs and increase efficiency. Plus, he kicked off a benign interest regime. But there are challenges ahead.
From the Sensex firms, State Bank of India, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Maruti, HCL Tech, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra and Infosys were among the major winners. However, Hindustan Unilever, Eternal, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, and Sun Pharma were among the laggards.
Gross GST collections increased by 6.2 per cent to over Rs 1.84 lakh crore in June but slipped below the Rs 2 lakh crore mark recorded in the previous two months. Gross GST collections stood at Rs 173,813 crore a year ago, as per government data released on Tuesday.
India's macroeconomic health is in a "relative goldilocks situation", and although the risk of higher landed oil prices, due to insurance cost surges and closure of choke points due to the brief Israel-Iran war, has receded, it is "too soon to sound the 'all clear' for the rest of the year", the Finance Ministry said on Friday.
Rising crude oil prices, traction in China equities and inflation concerns back home are casting a shadow on the Indian equity markets in the short term, believe analysts at Jefferies. They said this could see the markets remaining range-bound in the near term before the next leg up.
According to Japanese financial services major Nomura, despite slowing external demand, the domestic growth cycle is improving.
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Private banks' net profit grew 26.3 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 48,982 crore in the first quarter ended June 2024 (Q1FY25) owing to healthy growth in credit and other income. The gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) increased with the end of dispensation granted during the pandemic, according to the data compiled by BS Research Bureau for listed 18 private banks.
'The attempt to build a negative narrative about India's economic performance is disingenuous.' 'For the investors as well as the targeted beneficiaries of welfare schemes, the ground reality is very different,' argues Rajiv Kumar, vice-chairman, NITI Aayog.
Indian economy is set for a 'goldilocks' period -- used to describe a timeframe of high growth and low inflation -- while it can become Asia's fastest growing economy in 2016, Japanese financial major Nomura said.
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'Valuations of midcaps and smallcaps have reached very high levels, and hence to that extent leave little margin of safety.'
The rising market poses a dilemma for investors on whether to continue buying, reduce equity holding, or exit equities altogether.
'With China falling out of favour, India is where investors see the demographic and digital dividend apart from the benefits of reforms playing out.' 'Your prime minister has also done a great job of sharing this story with the world.'
'India is likely to do better than other emerging markets.'
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From environmental clearance to regulatory approval, from land acquisition for greenfield projects to displacement of tribals, it's been a season of scams, deep mistrust and hostility among companies, bureaucrats, regulators and politicians.
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India is set for decent growth in 2015.
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The North-West is expected to be hit the most.
It had upped India's rating to Baa2 from Baa3 and changed its rating outlook to 'stable' from 'positive', saying the reforms would help stabilise rising levels of debt.
India's credit and banking are neither too big nor too small.
RBI says, it cut rates as growth was not happening at ground level.
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We are much better placed than in 2013 with our overall fundamentals much stronger - higher foreign exchange reserves, a more favourable growth-inflation mix and an institutional framework for targeting inflation, says B Prasanna.
Just when stocks are seen as invincible, we should worry, warns Akash Prakash.
Any correction in Indian equities is an opportunity for investors to put in money for the long term
Rbi cut rates for teh third time to ease economic situation.
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