The sharp correction in equity markets has taken a toll on mid-and-small cap stocks that have underperformed their large-cap peers. Thus far in calendar year 2022 (CY22), the mid-and-small cap indexes on the BSE have slipped over 8 per cent and 7 per cent respectively, as compared to a fall of around 6 per cent in the S&P BSE Sensex. While investors dumped mid-and small-cap stocks as the markets remained choppy over the past few weeks, analysts still expect these two segments to see good investor interest from a medium-to-long term perspective.
Despite the wobble in the markets over the past few weeks, Indian equities remain expensive as measured by several yardsticks. India's market capitalisation-to-GDP ratio, for instance, has touched a multi-year high. The ratio is currently at 116 per cent, based on the FY22E gross domestic product (GDP) number, above its long-term average of 79 per cent.
Faster account opening, which allows investors to start trading without ever leaving their homes or visiting a physical branch of their local brokerage has played a role in the surge.
Hindustan Zinc (HZL), a subsidiary of Vedanta, announced an interim dividend of Rs 21 per share last week, resulting in an outflow of Rs 8,863 crore. The announcement has turned the spotlight on India Inc's dividend-paying policy - more so for reasons driving the generosity of firms. An analysis of BSE 500 companies by Business Standard Research Bureau shows that some of the top 20 dividend-paying companies in 2021-22 (FY22) include Vedanta, Tata Consultancy Services, HZL, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), Indian Oil Corporation (IndianOil), Hindustan Unilever (HUL), Reliance Industries (RIL), and Bajaj Auto, among others.
The outbreak of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus and unprecedented lockdowns in China have roiled its equity market and also that of Hong Kong. After the crisis-hit Sri Lanka, China and Hong Kong are the worst-performing stock markets in Asia on a year-to-date basis.
However, rural demand continued to remain a concern for FMCG companies during the quarter.
A seasonally-strong quarter, with no immediate impact of the second wave and continued acceleration of digital transformation will allow the IT services sector to report a robust Q1 this financial year. However, key metrics to look out for will be attrition rate and margin lever as they will be impacted by salary hikes. Analysts expect growth for the quarter to be broad-based, with sectors like banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI), retail, manufacturing, hi-tech and life sciences driving revenue growth. Analysts across brokerage houses are pegging revenue growth in the range of 1.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent.
'We continue to believe that the global economy will narrowly avoid a recession, despite expecting the US, Canada, and most of Europe to fall into recession at some point over the next year or so.'
Paytm founder and chief executive officer (CEO) Vijay Shekhar Sharma will receive his stock grants only after the company's market capitalisation (m-cap) stabilises at its initial public offering (IPO) level, the financial technology (fintech) major said on Wednesday. Paytm's stock price has been in free fall since its IPO at Rs 2,150 apiece, with m-cap at around Rs 1.4 trillion - plunging 76 per cent to a lifetime low of Rs 520 on March 23, when m-cap dropped below Rs 34,000 crore. Since then, the company's share price on the BSE has recovered some value and closed at Rs 637 on Wednesday.
After two months of buying, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned net sellers in October by pulling out Rs 12,278 crore from Indian markets. As per depositories data, FPIs took out Rs 13,550 crore from equities but invested Rs 1,272 crore in the debt segment during October 1-29. The total net outflow stood at Rs 12,278 crore during the period under review.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) recent decision to allow credit cards for payments through the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) is likely to attract a merchant discount rate (MDR), said a top payment industry source. For smaller merchants, a subsidy for MDR could be provided. "With credit card-UPI linkage, UPI will not only be a payment instrument but also a lending platform. "How can banks lend without a commercial model? Also, the government has said MDR will be zero for payment products but not for lending products," the source said, indicating the MDR regime for credit card-linked UPI payments.
The brokerage said the consolidated fiscal deficit, including that of the Union (3.6 per cent), the states (2.6 per cent) and the off-budget borrowings which are being resorted to increasingly is a worry.
Foreign brokerage firm CLSA initiated coverage on the stock with a Sell rating and target price of Rs 1,095, citing hefty premium valuation.
Arguing that the recent elevation in retail inflation is not structural but supply-driven and therefore potentially transitory, a foreign brokerage report has forecast that the benign interest rate regime will continue at least until next June. The assessment comes a day ahead of the third bimonthly monetary policy review on Friday wherein it's widely expected that the monetary authority will leave the key rates unchanged at 4 per cent even though the consumer prices have been on remaining above 6 per cent since May and crude prices have been north of $70 a barrel for months.
The results of Indian IT services players in the just-concluded fourth quarter of 2021-22 are expected to reveal continuing growth momentum as demand surges on the back of digital transformations and the cloud shift, but analysts anticipate margins to be under pressure due to supply challenges. Analysts covering the sector expect revenue commentary should be strong despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict and inflation. Top-line growth will be driven by broad-based demand with a strong uptick for cloud, digital, cybersecurity, data analytics, and artificial intelligence, among other services.
A strong performance by sectors including banking raised the profits of Indian companies by 28 per cent in the three months ended March 2022. The rate of growth is, however, lower than the 30 per cent seen in December. Growth in net sales was also lower than what was seen in the December quarter for the sample under consideration.
Wall Street brokerage Goldman Sachs has flagged a slew of concerns on the surging COVID-19 caseload that has been hitting new records everyday, coupled with the rising lockdowns, forcing it to downgrade India's GDP growth forecast for the full year to 10.5 per cent from 10.9 per cent, apart from pegging down stock indices valuation and earnings. In a detailed note on Tuesday, Goldman Sachs' house economists led by Sunil Koul said these record number of pandemic cases and a host of key states announcing stricter lockdowns of late have fuelled serious growth concerns, leaving investors worried about the risks to macro and earnings recovery.
The Reserve Bank will go for a "dovish pause" at Wednesday's policy review announcement amid developments such as a rise in inflation, government maintaining the inflation target band and a likely impact on growth due to local lockdowns on rising COVID-19 infections, analysts said on Monday. Economists at American brokerage Bofa Securities said price stability, growth and financial stability will become the prime focus areas for the central bank going forward. "The RBI MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) should deliver another dovish pause on Wednesday," it said. The policy announcement, the first for the fiscal, will come days after the government maintained the RBI's target to ensure inflation to be within 2-6 per cent band for five more years.
With the O2C business outlook on the mend, the Street is also looking forward to news on RIL's proposal to sell up to 20 per cent of the O2C business to a strategic investor like Saudi Aramco.
High regulatory expectations and advent of discount broking have made old-style brokerage businesses unviable.
Overseas shipments at auto firms expanded at a brisk pace year-on-year (YoY) in March, bumping up the overall annual exports for FY22 and taking it to a record level for some like Maruti Suzuki India and Bajaj Auto. Amid a semiconductor shortage, a depreciating rupee and a strong demand in various export destinations, passenger vehicle makers diverted capacity meant for the local market in favour of the more-lucrative export market. Among the passenger vehicle makers, market leader Maruti Suzuki led the rally with its overseas shipments touching a record level of 238,376 units in FY22 - the highest for the company in any financial year.
While commercial vehicles are expected to benefit from strong replacement demand, the two-wheeler and tractor segments are expected to gain from a recovery in the rural economy.
Though a weak dollar will lend some support to revenues and margins in FY21, the demand environment will outweigh any gain.
The Reserve Bank is likely to maintain status quo on interest rates in its forthcoming monetary policy review but may change the stance in view of retail inflation piercing its upper tolerance limit, global uncertainties created by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and the urgency to protect and boost growth, feel experts. The RBI governor-headed rate setting panel -- Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) -- will be holding its first meeting of the 2022-23 fiscal from April 6 to 8. The outcome will be announced on April 8.
Domestic equity markets are in elite company. In May, Indian markets joined select developed markets (DMs) such as the US, UK and Germany to record new all-time highs. Among emerging markets (EMs), Brazil is the other market to have logged new highs this month. Asian peers such as South Korea, Taiwan and New Zealand are currently between 2 per cent and 10 per cent below their previous highs made earlier this year. The domestic markets were among the worst-performing major global markets in April amid a lethal second-wave of covid-19 infections.
'Favourable product mix, sales recovery, and cost saving initiatives are expected to support margins going ahead while focus on debt reduction (target of debt free by FY24) will aid balance sheet strength'
CLSA says any correction in the market due to poll related uncertainty could be a buying opportunity.
Some of the sops being offered to rope in new clients and retain the existing ones are cashbacks, reduced fee, and customised consultancy for clients.
With the world's worst pandemic outbreak scarring nascent economic recovery, the government may at the beginning of the unlock phase announce another stimulus package for the most hit sectors such as small business and self-employed, Bernstein said. The brokerage in a note said its macro index suggests a deterioration in economic activity during April/May. "Energy consumption has moderated, with power down over 4 per cent and oil consumption down over 16 per cent in May so far (all 2-year CAGR). "E-waybills are down 16 per cent, suggesting the impact of scale down in factory production for some product categories, owing to the shut down in retail outlets.
Distribution yields could rise, but risk of Covid, higher interest rates remain.
Morgan Stanley removed banking stocks from its model portfolio when it slashed its weighting on the sector by 500 basis points. Several foreign brokerages, such as UBS, JP Morgan, and Credit Suisse, of late, have also become less optimistic about banking stocks.
Experts believe while escalation with Pakistan might not have a significant impact on trade economics, both India and China have major trade and investments in each others' economies. While the dispute might continue, it could have a temporary effect on the markets.
What has hit sentiment further is a draft proposal by the government to increase vehicle insurance premiums for financial year 2022-23 (FY23). Third-party motor insurance premiums have not been increased over the last two years and if this is approved, insurance costs for specific segments could rise by a fifth. The worst impacted is the 350cc and above two-wheeler segment, where premiums are up 21 per cent. Royal Enfield (Eicher Motor) is the market leader in the segment. The premiums in the 150-350cc two-wheeler category are also being inc
Foreign brokerage Bank of America Merrill Lynch said they expect the headline inflation to rise to 3.3 per cent in May, but added that it is within the 2-6 per cent range which the government has set for the RBI.
When Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) of India gets listed on the bourses next month, it will be among the biggest listed life insurers globally in terms of market capitalisation (m-cap), assets, and revenue, but will also be among the least profitable and capitalised among its peer group. A big gap between LIC's m-cap, profits, and networth (shareholder capital) will make it one of the priciest insurers globally, in terms of price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple and price-to-book value (P/B) ratio. LIC also lags behind its Indian listed peers in terms of profit and networth.
The earnings are, however, expected to be down around 2 per cent on a sequential basis due to pent-up demand getting exhausted and the adverse impact of rising metals and energy prices on consumer goods and manufacturing companies.
While the Indian government has been procuring Covid-19 vaccines at low prices so far, manufacturers have to declare the prices of vaccines they would supply to the open market (industries, private hospitals, etc) and state governments before May 1. Sohini Das reports.
India's natural gas production is projected to jump by 52 per cent to 122 million standard cubic metres per day by 2024 as state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Reliance Industries Ltd-BP combine raise output from the KG basin fields. Natural gas production in 2019-20 was 85 mmscmd, which is estimated to have fallen to 80 mmscmd in the following year, HDFC Securities said in a report. The output is projected to rise in the current fiscal that started on April 1 to 93 mmscmd, 107 mmscmd in the following year and 122 mmscmd in 2023-24, the brokerage estimated.
Led by Trent, which hit its lifetime-high recently, apparel retailers have gained between 10 per cent and 36 per cent over the past three weeks. Given the network of physical stores, these stocks shall be major beneficiaries of the unlock theme, with most states doing away with Covid restrictions. Amid improving footfall, analysts expect the sector to post double-digit growth in FY23.
Economic growth is likely to plummet to a multi-decade low of 1.6 per cent in fiscal year 2020-21 due to the Covid-19 pandemic and ensuing measures like lockdowns and social distancing, an American brokerage said on Wednesday in one of the bleakest forecasts on GDP yet. Indian policymakers have not been aggressive enough in their response till now to the crisis, and will need to eventually intensify their efforts, economists at Goldman Sachs said.
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