Most brokerages have maintained their Sensex and Nifty targets as they believe there is little room for further re-rating in the backdrop of weak earnings.
Invest only if you wish to go overweight on the sector.
The early bird results for the January-March 2022 quarter (Q4FY22) hint at a slowdown in corporate sector growth in the upcoming quarters. The combined net sales of the 81 early bird companies in the Business Standard sample were up 15.1 per cent year-on-year in Q4FY22; this was less than the 15.9 per cent YoY jump reported in Q3FY22. The slowdown could be much stronger for the domestic market-focused companies, including those in the banking, finance, and insurance (BFSI) space.
Tata Motors' UK-based subsidiary, Jaguar Land Rover or JLR, reported a muted operational performance in the December quarter of financial year 2021-22 (Q3FY22). The luxury carmaker saw a 33 per cent year-on-year (YoY) decline in wholesale volumes to just under 70,000 units in Q3, against estimates that were 16 per cent higher. The drop in despatches to dealers was on account of shortage in semiconductors.
Most of the long-only funds are closed-ended. This means that investors have to lock in their money for a fixed period before they can take it back.
While the collapse of a large financial intermediary can wreak havoc on the system because of the interconnectivity, a large business conglomerate too can play spoilsport if the banks have too much exposure to the entity, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Small stocks of Dalal Street grappled with turbulent times in 2022 as high volatility and higher interest rate regime sapped investors' appetite for these scrips but the horizon ahead seems less cloudy for the New Year. While the 30-share Sensex scaled multiple record peaks with bluechips glittering, small stocks underperformed and the BSE smallcap index declined more than 3 per cent this year. In comparison, the BSE Sensex climbed 2,673.61 points or 4.58 per cent till December 27.
The Apple iPhone comprises 44 per cent of the global smartphone market's revenues and it is the second most-such device to be shipped after Samsung. More than half of smartphones used in the US are iPhones. More than 7 million iPhones are expected to be sold in India in 2022, extending the user base to 20 million, according to market research and analyst firm Techarc. Hence, the news about Apple scaling down its production target for iPhone 14 in India has made news.
While HDFC Bank has vowed to recoup its lost market share in the credit card segment in three to four quarters by aggressively sourcing new cards, brokerages believe it is a little hard to come by, given how competitive the landscape has become, with other players in the market becoming equally aggressive to gain market share. Kotak Institutional Equities in its report on Monday said, "We would like to believe that the recovery in market share is likely to be gradual, if any. "All the key players, including Axis Bank, are now willing to expand their credit card portfolios as they have tested quite well against Covid-19."
A weak margin outlook in the near term and lack of fresh triggers may keep the Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) stock under pressure. The stock, after tepid September quarter (Q2) results and marginal downward revision in earnings estimates, declined 3.5 per cent in trade on Friday. Though consolidated sales of the company, which owns the Goodknight and Cinthol brands, grew 8.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY), its operating profit declined because of the sharp contraction in margins.
'Yet the market didn't do all that badly because it was cushioned by domestic inflows.'
The economy is likely to register a 9.5 per cent growth this fiscal over 7.3 per cent contraction last year, as the ongoing recovery is faster and more credible than earlier foreseen, according to a foreign brokerage report. It will gather more momentum in the second half of the current fiscal, but will slow down to 7.7 per cent next financial year, it added. The government has budgeted for a 10.5 per cent growth this fiscal, but the Reserve Bank has scaled it down to 9.5 per cent.
Market sources said other brokerages are also looking to streamline their business models as market volatility, along with increasing competition, has taken a toll on earning yields.
Despite fears of the Omicron variant, business activity touched an all-time high since the onset of the pandemic for the week ended December 12, a Japanese brokerage said on Monday. The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI), which compares the activity for a particular week as against the one before the onset of the pandemic, rose to 115.8 from the 112.9 for the previous week. "Despite Omicron risks, neither policy restrictions nor public fear factor appear to have had any impact on mobility so far, which is supporting a further normalisation in services," it said in a statement.
Consumer-focused companies have been left with few options but to increase the prices of their products as input costs mount because of various factors, including supply chain disruptions. This has been affecting monthly household budgets. Prices of scores of items -- from spices to soaps to rice -- have increased in the past year.
Several exchanges are facing a cash crunch with committed investment not coming from venture capital funds and trading activity seeing a sharp decline, reports Rajesh Bhayani.
The economy faces more downside risks now as economic disruptions arising from the second wave are likely to stabilise only from July, warned the Swiss brokerage USB Securities. Last month, the brokerage had cut its GDP forecast by 150 bps to 10 per cent for FY22, which though is much higher than the consensus projections by others with some pegging it at as low as 8 per cent. Though adverse impacts on sequential growth is less severe than in the June 2020 quarter when it plunged by 23.9 per cent, as lockdowns are more targeted and localised and households and businesses have adjusted to the new normal now, still, it is increasingly possible that normalcy returns only by July as against our baseline assumption of June.
On an overall basis, Nomura believes the economic conditions are suited for equity markets. The brokerage is predicting the market performance will be better in the first half of 2020 and "somewhat weaker" in the second half.
Apple's newest phone iPhone 14 will be made in India as the global tech titan bets big on the manufacturing prowess of the world's second-biggest smartphone market after China.
'At present Metaverse is a hype cycle.' 'If it succeeds, then I would like to see TCS there, too.'
Mutual funds (MFs) are investing in more stocks despite the recent volatility. The industry invested in 824 companies across the listed universe as of October, according to primemfdatabase.com. The S&P BSE Sensex hit its all-time high of 62,245 that month. The index has since corrected to 57,864, around 7 per cent below the peak.
The regulator typically meets overseas investors in the US and UK in the first half of a financial year, and had opted for a virtual meet last year too.
Despite headwinds, it remains "structurally bullish" on India and expects the Sensex to scale up to the 70,000-mark by December 2022; 80,000 level in a bull-case scenario and hover around the 50,000-mark as a bear-case, the brokerage house said in a report.
China's national health commission said 39,452 new cases were reported on Monday, including 36,304 local asymptomatic cases, as authorities scrambled to contain the fresh surge in infections.
Paytm had received the approval for brokerage services from market regulator Sebi in January this year.
A month-long national lockdown to arrest the spread of COVID 2.0 could shave off 100-200 bps of GDP, leading to a 300 bps risk to annual growth, a brokerage report has flagged while expressing doubts over the ability of local lockdowns to control the pandemic. The second wave of the coronavirus inflection has caught the government off-guard with the daily cases jumping over 6.5 times in the past 30 days. With close to 3.53 lakh fresh daily infections, the country is the worst hit globally.
In the past four months, more than 4 million new accounts have been opened, taking the total to 44.3 million.
'I would not suggest buying these stocks in the dip, as the upside in profit is dented without a safety net for a rainy day.'
Logistics services provider Delhivery is likely to launch its downsized initial public offering (IPO) this week, said people in the know. The Softbank-backed firm may trim its issue size from Rs 7,460 crore to Rs 5,500 crore to align with the volatile market conditions, sources said. Sources added the fresh issue component of the IPO could be reduced to Rs 4,500 crore and the OFS component to Rs 1,000 crore.
Housing sales are likely to be hit, especially in affordable and mid-income categories, following the RBI's decision to hike repo rate, according to real estate developers and consultants. However, the impact of RBI's decision to raise the benchmark lending rate by 50 basis points to 5.40 per cent is expected to be for a short term, they added. This is the third consecutive rate hike after a 40 basis points and 50 basis points increase in May and June, respectively.
As markets complete the first half of the calendar year 2022 (CY22) with a fall of around 9 per cent, the interest-rate hike trajectory by global central banks, paired with the conundrum of inflation and growth, will move the needle for the market, observe experts. Here's a quick rundown on what they'll react to over the next six months.
Despite a healthy March-May quarter (Q3FY22) show by global IT consulting firm Accenture, Indian IT companies shed up to 3 per cent on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) on Friday as analysts continued to highlight medium-term pain points for the sector. The Nifty IT index settled 0.9 per cent lower on Friday, as against a 0.9 per cent rise in the Nifty50 index. According to analysts at ICICI Securities, Accenture's Q3 saw moderation in year-on-year growth rate across verticals and US regions, which signals at likely normalisation in revenue momentum for Indian IT services going forward.
These unicorns, or startups valued at over USD 1 billion, are across industries, beyond technology and tech-enabled sectors as well, like pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods, Credit Suisse India equity strategist Neelkanth Mishra told reporters in Mumbai.
The government is mulling changes in the income tax laws to bring cryptocurrencies under the tax net, with some changes that could form part of the Budget next year, a top official said. Revenue secretary Tarun Bajaj said that in terms of income tax, some people are already paying capital gains tax on the income from cryptocurrency, and in respect of Goods and Services Tax (GST) also the law is "very clear" that the rate would be applicable as those in case of other services.
The FPI holding in India's top 100 companies, which are part of the Nifty 100 index, declined to 24.23 per cent on average at the end of March this year, from a high of 27.5 per cent at the end of March 2021. This is the lowest FPI holdings in India's top listed companies in at least three years. A general sell-off by FPIs has weighed on stock prices and the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex is down 8.5 per cent, from its 52-week high made in October 2021. Most analysts expect FPI flows to remain weak in FY23 as well, given rising bond yields in the US and an expected earnings slowdown in India due to high inflation and commodity prices.
A new generation of investors has taken to stock trading on mobile phones with a renewed zeal, driven mainly by social changes after the Covid-19 pandemic breakout. The proportion of the cash market turnover ascribed to mobile phones has jumped from 5.3 per cent in June 2019 to 18.7 per cent in June this year, reveals BSE data. The share of mobile trading on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) for June this year stood at 19.5 per cent.
'Investing in the stocks of holdcos can be a very efficient and inexpensive way of gaining exposure to the stocks of India's reputable growing business houses.'
The liquidity-fuelled rally will continue for some time, however, fundamentals are getting stretched.
An immediate RBI rate cut will lower lending rates for banks' MSME/retail/mortgage loans before the 'busy' industrial season ends in March.
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