India's natural gas production is projected to jump by 52 per cent to 122 million standard cubic metres per day by 2024 as state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Reliance Industries Ltd-BP combine raise output from the KG basin fields.
Natural gas production in 2019-20 was 85 mmscmd, which is estimated to have fallen to 80 mmscmd in the following year, HDFC Securities said in a report.
The output is projected to rise in the current fiscal that started on April 1 to 93 mmscmd, 107 mmscmd in the following year and 122 mmscmd in 2023-24, the brokerage estimated.
The increase in production augments well with the government plans for raising the share of natural gas in the country's energy basket to 15 per cent by 2030 from the current 6.2 per cent in a bid to cut emissions.
ONGC, which had in recent years seen output stagnate, is likely to see production rise to 67 mmscmd in 2021-22 from 62 mmscmd in the previous year.
This would rise to 69 mmscmd in FY23 and 75 mmscmd in FY24.
Reliance-BP combine, which in December last year brought newer fields in their eastern offshore KG-D6 block to production, would lead to the rise in gas output by non-PSUs.
Its output, which was 11 mmscmd in 2020-21, would rise to 38 mmscmd by FY24, the brokerage estimated.
It projected domestic gas demand to climb from 153.8 mmscmd in FY21 (April 2020 to March 2021) to 215.5 mmscmd in 2024-25.
India's domestic gas production is inadequate to meet all its requirements and the deficit is met through imports in form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
HDFC Securities said the KGD6 consortium has sought bids from customers as it intends to sell an additional 5.5 mmscmd of gas from the Krishna Godavari (KG) Basin block, off the eastern coast of India.
The additional gas will be available for sale at the delivery point at Gadimoga, near Kakinada, tentatively from the last week of April or early May 2021.
ONGC has also floated the tender for prospective buyers to bid for gas supplies from its KG-DWN-98/2 field in the KG Basin offshore.
The company will supply 2 mmscmd of gas from the field to the Odalarevu onshore terminal in Andhra Pradesh, which should commence from June 2021.
"This increasing gas supply from domestic sources should drive earnings growth and valuations for the Indian gas utilities, especially the gas transmission companies," it said.
Tenders to sell gas from the KG Basin indicate that ramp-up in domestic gas production is faster than investor expectation, it said.
"The tenders from the KG-D6 consortium and ONGC to sell gas from KG Basin underscores our thesis of rising domestic gas production.
"These and earlier tenders indicate a total increase of about 20 mmscmd (23 per cent of FY20 domestic supply) in the supply of gas from domestic sources over December 2020 to July 2021."
The KG-D6 consortium has already signed the Gas Sales and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) with buyers to sell 4.8 mmscmd and 7.5 mmscmd of gas from KGD6 Basin in November-19 and February-21, respectively.
The consortium has commenced gas production from R-cluster, an ultra-deepwater gas field, in December 2020.
R-cluster is the first of the three projects to come on stream. The production from the Satellites Cluster and MJ field is expected to start by mid-2021 and 2022, respectively.
Peak gas production from the three fields is expected to be 30 mmscmd by 2023.
ONGC has commenced gas production from KG-DWN-98/2 in March 2020. It is expected to reach 3 mmscmd in FY22 and further ramp up to 15 mmscmd by FY24.
Photograph: Amit Dave/Reuters