After big win in Bihar, the BJP is likely to push harder in Tamil Nadu, where the DMK government and the uneasy BJP-AIADMK alliance are preparing for a tense election filled with seat-sharing fights, changing alliances, and the unpredictable entry of Vijay's TVK party, predicts N Sathiya Moorthy.
Like his father Karunanidhi and AIADMK rivals MGR and Jayalalithaa, Stalin would like to confine his real political work to Tamil Nadu, and not want to take after the late Congress leader K Kamaraj and take up a national role, even if to create greater political space for son Udhayanidhi, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
'What is worrying other parties is those 10-11 year olds who come for his meetings will cross 18 in the next election. And they will vote for him, and then his vote bank will double.' 'In that case, he will be a very serious player! This is the real scare for other political parties.'
Amit Shah seemingly encouraging AIADMK dissident Sengottaiyan after party boss Edappadi K Palaniswami had removed his one-time mentor from all party posts has not gone down well with party cadres. They are now ready to buy Team EPS' theory that the BJP and Amit Shah are out to liquidate the AIADMK, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
Successive elections since 2019 have proved that the Modi charisma and Shah's strategy does not work in Tamil Nadu. Now, they have to see next year if the DMK is capable of losing, whether to an existing NDA alliance or an expanded version, if one becomes necessary and possible!, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin has condemned the alliance between the AIADMK and BJP, calling it a move driven by "hunger for power" and against the ideals of protecting state rights. He accused the alliance of being formed based on corruption and said it is doomed to fail. Stalin also criticized Union Home Minister Amit Shah for failing to address key issues like NEET and Hindi imposition, claiming that the BJP's agenda is to eradicate Tamil language and undermine Tamil Nadu's rights.
EPS has had its way on most things, alliance-wise. A week earlier, he reiterated that he would not re-admit OPS and Sasikala Natarajan back in the party. It was a message not just to detractors in the AIADMK. It was even more so for the BJP leadership in Delhi. Even more important for the AIADMK was their demand for accepting EPS as the chief ministerial candidate of any alliance that the party would form, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Given the possibilities that next year's assembly elections could throw up, Stalin told the state assembly that an interim report had to be submitted by January 2026. The outcomes may well find its way into the DMK's poll manifesto, thus seeking to keep the electoral focus still on the BJP-ruled Centre and Prime Minister Modi, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Over the medium and long term, the BJP hopes to devour the AIADMK, they having identified the party as 'ideologically not as sound as the DMK', predicts N Sathiya Moorthy.
If Tamil Nadu voters preferred the DMK combine, it owed to the Modi-Annamalai combo's ideological battle which often crossed the line of political decency and also challenged 'Tamil pride', argues N Sathiya Moorthy.
He will be remembered for mustering the courage to take on former chief ministers and the state's political heavyweights M Karunanidhi and J Jayalalithaa in the political arena on his own terms and also hold his own against them.
The BJP is ready for a snap poll anytime and is sure the UPA will not remain in office till 2009 in view of widening differences with the Left parties on the Indo-US nuclear.
The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam on Monday questioned Tamil Nadu Bharatiya Janata Party chief K Annamalai's intention to criticise the party despite being in the alliance, and said it will be forced to rethink its ties with the saffron party if Annamalai is not restrained.
The Tamil film industry won't forget Vijayakanth's large-heartedness, how he took care of fellow industry persons, male or female, rich or poor, young or old...recalls N Sathiya Moorthy. How he sent money quietly for the family of a stunt artiste to meet his funeral expenses, how he always ensured that all female co-stars, including junior artistes, had secure accommodation on outdoor shoots, and how he would always the first to rush help if anyone from the fraternity was in distress.
Indications are that the DMK combine will win more seats than the AIADMK and BJP, but is facing a tough fight in about half a dozen from the rest, predicts N Sathiya Moorthy of the electoral contest in Tamil Nadu.
According to DMK, the voters are already consolidated on ideological lines, hence the impact of anti-incumbency, whether against the BJP Centre or the DMK state may not be too much, notes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The two main factions in Karnataka's Congress party -- one led by Siddaramaiah and the other by D K Shivakumar -- are both contenders for the chief ministership. Both groups have fought hard to get their choice of MLAs the party ticket, notes Aditi Phadnis.
Already, there is a feeling even within the BJP's AIADMK ally that the BJP is overdoing things on the ED/I-T front, as corruption is not an election issue in the state -- as long as the people are otherwise not excessively unhappy with the governing party, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
Vellore is one of the two seats that the DMK alliance won by the narrowest of margins in 2019. For the DMK's vote-score to be so low in a constituency with a substantial Muslim population has not missed the BJP strategists' eyes, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
The parleys, according to a BJP senior, were cordial and the deal is likely to be clinched soon.
The Tamil Nadu unit of the Bharatiya Janata Party on Monday announced that it would contest alone in the urban civic polls slated to be held on February 19, even while asserting that its alliance with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in the state remained intact.
A Ganesh Nadar meets M Radha, the first transgender candidate in the fray for Lok Sabha elections from Tamil Nadu.
'The BJP will be the ruling party.'
With the Tamil Nadu electorate having given him an unprecedented mandate that had eluded his father the late M Karunanidhi, Stalin has to prove his worth, ensuring at the same time that the Dravidian drag on the AIADMK's side does not open up space for the BJP to make inroads in the state, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
The BJP has to endorse chief minister K Palaniswami's candidature for the CM's post for the polls and agree to its other terms -- like non-participation in government -- and if not, should rethink of its 2021 electoral options, the AIADMK indicated at its meet.
The country will not allow any "unilateral action" on its border and will pay any cost to thwart such attempts, he told the Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha's state conference.
Higher education policy may be at the core of the Tamil Nadu assembly polls next May, with a potential to break the ties between the ruling AIADMK in the state and the BJP counterpart at the national level, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
It does not stop here, though. According to field information, state ministers, AIADMK candidates and campaigners are asking BJP cadres accompanying them not to carry party flags at common rallies and also avoid their saffron shawl on those occasions. BJP cadres are also asked to stay out of the common campaign when it enters a minority-dominated areas, especially of Muslims, and re-join later, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
'The BJP wants an AIADMK government so that they can implement their policies.' 'All the policies implemented in UP are being implemented in Tamil Nadu.'
The contemporary problem with the BJP in Tamil Nadu is that it has been trying hard to package the DMK especially as anti-god and anti-Hinduism, and seeking it to link to Periyar and M Karunanidhi, and by extension to Stalin, the latter's son and successor to the party mantle. Their hope was to consolidate the perceived 'pro-god, pro-religion votes', which they saw returning to the fold post-MGR, post-Jayalalithaa. But no such substantial vote-bank existed even in Periyar's time, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
'The Pollachi case will have a negative impact for the AIADMK alliance.' 'The BJP and AIADMK are in alliance in Tamil Nadu.' 'That may be the reason for the delay in the central government's approval for case transfer to the CBI.'
More than 750 constituencies spread across four states and one union territory will go to the polls on Tuesday
Days after sending feelers to the Communist Party of India-Marxist and CPI which had quit the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam chief M Karunanidhi on Saturday said no talks had been held with them so far and declined to commit on the number of seats they would be offered if they joined the Democratic Progressive Alliance.
After Shah said Hindi is the most spoken language which can unite the nation as a common language, Tamil Nadu parties rallied against it.
Once the Covid crisis subsides in the state, the NEET exam this year, whether conducted or cancelled, could become an electoral issue next year, along with the BC-MBC reservations issue, especially the 'creamy layer' aspect, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
This time round, even 'petrol coupons' were reportedly distributed for those attending campaign rallies, especially those addressed by top leaders, cutting across party lines. If this owed to the rising cost of petrol and diesel -- which is a poll issue this time -- there were the customary coupons for 'quarter' (liquor bottle size) and non-vegetarian biryani. Some media reports claimed that some of these 'crowds' attended more than one political rally on the same day in the last week, and at times for rival political parties in adjoining constituencies or districts, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
On the face of it, the first round has gone to Edappadi K Palaniswami. Not only has he been named chief ministerial candidate, that too by his one-time bete noire Panneerselvam, he also gets one member more in the steering committee than OPS. He can now hope to wean away one or more members of the OPS team in the steering committee just as he had done with other leaders in the latter's camp, post-reunification. That was also OPS's concern, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
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Asserting that Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam had the capability to face the polls with its existing local allies, party president M Karunanidhi on Tuesday said there was no setback for his Democratic Progressive Alliance in the absence of a national party in the combine.
Rajinikanth's visible electoral strength is his constant mouthing of the term, 'aanmiga arasiyal', or 'spiritual politics', without he having to explain what it is. By implication, it is all that what Dravidian politics is not about. It may imply anti-corruption, being against Periyar's forgotten anti-god, anti-Brahmin dictum, but also ends up covering 'Tamil pride', which begins with Tamil language where, as a Maratha from Karnataka, he has more to defend himself. However, in the contemporary national context, aanmiga arasiyal is seen as a front for Rajini to market his brand of 'soft Hindutva' but identified even more with the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in political terms, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
Modi's non-reference could also imply that the BJP may be keeping its alliance options open vis--vis the AIADMK. It could also imply that the BJP's national leadership had not given up on the DMK returning to power in the state post-poll, and the Centre having to do business with a new government in Fort St George, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
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