US-Iran ceasefire: 'Is Pakistan acting for China?'

'The question is: Are the Pakistanis trying to work with the United States to perhaps make new friends and broaden their alliances, or are they doing the bidding of China? Are they essentially a mouthpiece for the Chinese Communist Party?' 

After the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire and expressed hope for lasting peace, Pakistan took much of the credit for playing mediator between the two countries.

However, Jonathan Schanzer, Executive Director at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies and former US Treasury counterterrorism analyst, said Pakistan is deeply indebted to China.

He added that it remains to be seen whether Pakistan is broadening its alliances by engaging with the US or acting at China's behest.

"When we look at Pakistan, we need to understand that this is a country greatly indebted to China. Through the Belt and Road Initiative and debt-trap diplomacy, China has the Pakistanis right where it wants them. The question is: Are the Pakistanis trying to work with the United States to perhaps make new friends and broaden their alliances, or are they doing the bidding of China? Are they essentially a mouthpiece for the Chinese Communist Party? At this point, we just don't know the answer to that," he said.

Pakistan's Rise As Negotiator 'Unlikely And Bizarre'

Schanzer described Pakistan's emergence in a negotiating role with the White House as 'unlikely and bizarre'.

"Their role in all of this is just so unlikely and bizarre. There are a lot of things I didn't expect to see in 2026; this is probably among the top ones. And yet, somehow, the Pakistanis have insinuated themselves into the White House. They're part of the discussions about Gaza and part of the Iran deal. How this has happened and what they want in return has yet to be explained," he said.

Schanzer said US Vice President J D Vance holds a dim view of foreign intervention, adding that China's role in the current situation raises important questions.

Responding to reports that Vance was looped in late in the US-Iran mediation process, and that China may have helped bring Iran to the table, Schanzer said:

"We know that J D Vance holds a dim view of foreign intervention, and I think he's been very concerned about this war from the get-go. We lump him into a group broadly described as neo-isolationists -- people who are deeply skeptical of the American use of force to shape forces around the globe. But I think the question of China is really the most interesting one," he said.

War 'Far from Over' Despite Ceasefire

Schanzer warned that the conflict is far from over, even if the ceasefire holds and the Strait of Hormuz remains open.

"The thing everyone needs to understand is that this war is not over. Even if they agree to keep the strait open and stop bombing one another for a time, there is still going to be a covert effort to bring down the regime from within.

"The people of Iran have not yet had their say. I also think there are open questions about all those different proxies. They were the ones who started this war back in 2023 -- Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. They have yet to be dealt with in a way that puts punctuation at the end of this long conflict," he said.

He added that the situation could shift back to Israel's hands in dealing with Iran's proxy network, and that new phases of the war may emerge.

Concerns Over Hormuz Traffic

Schanzer further said it remains uncertain whether Iran will allow the free flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

"Does the Islamic Republic allow for the free flow of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz? I'm not convinced that they'll be willing to do so. If they start trying to charge people for transit or threaten vessels, that will become a real problem. We potentially have a two-week ceasefire, and during that time, a more permanent solution will need to be derived. But especially in these early hours and days, there's still a lot that can go wrong," he said.

• THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT