If the oil infrastructure is attacked by the United States, the whole area could be flooded with oil, spilling into the Persian Gulf.
Key Points
- No ship can pass through the Strait of Hormuz undetected by Iran.
- The Strait of Hormuz is fairly wide, roughly about 25 nautical miles across. But its shipping lanes are narrow.
- The narrow shipping lanes of Hormuz are exposed to very heavy traffic. At any given time there may be 100 to 200 large ships moving through the area -- without counting smaller coastal vessels or the fishing boats.
When the United States bombed the island of Kharg in Iran on Friday, March 13, it brought back memories for Captain Jaideep Gode. As a young cadet on a merchant ship, forty years ago, he had found himself right in the middle of bombing on the same island during the Iran-Iraq war.
"We used to go to Kharg island to load oil, and the Iraqis would rain bombs -- and try to hit the tankers and ships going to Iran."
"They blew up the M V World Knight, a VLCC which was headed for the berth we were departing from. We saw the explosion," recalls Captain Gode.
A VLCC [very large crude carrier] is usually around 350 metres long and around 45 to 50 metres wide. It would have been a massive target.
During the Iran-Iraq war, Saddam Hussein's Iraq was backed by America and many countries in Europe. The Iraqis used French Exocet missiles to strike ships headed towards Iran.
"I remember the Iranian ack-ack batteries were manned by teenagers and they would fire over the ship at the Iraqi planes. We were more scared of getting blown up by ack-ack fire than Iraqi bombers!" says the captain who has sailed through the Strait of Hormuz many times in a long maritime career.
Iran-Iraq war lasted 8 years: One of the deadliest conflicts of the 20th century
It was thought that the war would last a few weeks, but the Iran-Iraq war dragged on from 1980 to 1988. Ayotollah Khomeini had just taken over Iran after the monarchy was overthrown in the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Iran was practically isolated, but the Iranians fought hard. Young boys, just over 18, went to war.
An estimated 500,000 to 1,000,000 human beings died in the deadly conflict. Iran saw an estimated 600,000 war dead.
As a student, Captain Gode remembers coming across many Iranian students at the Nautical College who had served on the frontlines for one or two years.
"The Iranians know how to fight. They do not give up."
What assets does Iran have on Kharg Island?
Kharg Island is located inside the Persian Gulf, 25 kilometres from the Iranian coast and 483 kms northwest of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian oil tank farms are located on the island, which is around 8 kilometres long and 4-5 kms wide.
It is estimated that Iran probably has a storage capacity of 20 to 30 million barrels of oil on the island.
If the oil infrastructure is attacked by the United States, the whole area could be flooded with oil which could flow into the Persian Gulf.
Realistically, it would mean hitting a huge target; they would rather target the terminals instead.
What sailors experience navigating the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is fairly wide, roughly about 25 nautical miles across. But its shipping lanes are narrow.
On busy sea routes, the most important thing to watch out for is the depth. Large ships can easily run aground in shallow water. Therefore, hydrographic authorities create shipping lanes -- TSS or Traffic Separation Scheme -- to guide vessels safely.
There is one lane for ships going east and another for ships going west, with a small separation zone in between.
Each lane is only about two miles wide, which isn't much at all when compared to shipping lanes in the English Channel that are four or five miles wide.
The narrow shipping lanes of Hormuz are exposed to very heavy traffic. At any given time there may be 100 to 200 large ships moving through the area -- without counting smaller coastal vessels or the fishing boats.
Large ships generally follow a route that hugs the coast of Oman. They sail along Oman, pass Fujairah in the UAE, and then onward.
The lane is roughly 20 miles south of the Iranian coast, closer to UAE and Oman.
Ships stick to these waters because the water outside is much shallower. The TSS depths are carefully surveyed and charted, and the lanes are followed by large vessels -- especially super tankers -- to avoid running aground.
The monsoon is a rough time to sail in the area.
"It is very windy in the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman. But not as difficult as the open European waters or off Japan," says Captain Gode.
What happens when GPS systems are spoofed and jammed
The big challenge is the jamming and spoofing of GNSS/GPS signals which causes disruptions to commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran is suspected of jamming signals resulting in ships showing false positions and wrong data readings.
"Ships have to be really careful now. Captains will have to crosscheck every position physically in the old fashioned way using your radar to get your bearings," cautions Captain Gode.
"The only problem is young officers today are not used to the old way of navigation and rely on the GPS system. This is something that they'll have to learn quickly."
At full speed a ship can take 1.5 to 2 miles to stop: The challenge of manoeuvring big ships
Ships have an Automatic Identification System, AIS. Like in an aircraft, this gives the positions of the ship as it is moves -- giving information like position, speed, course, so that other vessels know its position and avoid coming dangerously close.
Big ships are not easily manoeuvrable. A tanker can be 200 or 300 metres long. It's not like driving a car. If a ship is at full speed, it can take a mile-and-a-half, sometimes two miles, before it stops. Therefore, AIS helps in knowing the position of different ships.
With the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz -- some ships will switch off their AIS so that the position of the ship is not revealed.
This is a practice followed to deal with the problem of piracy in the Gulf of Aden. Ships would just shut off any signal to stay invisible to pirates.
No ship can pass through the Strait of Hormuz undetected by Iran
All the ships are within radar range and monitored by Iran.
Iran has let some ships of friendly countries pass through -- like Chinese ships and two ships bound for India.
The ship's AIS gives the destination, the number of crew, the ship's size etc. It is quite easy for someone monitoring the traffic to identify which ships belong to countries they consider friendly -- say Chinese, Indian or Russian vessels.
Once you exclude those ships, the rest can be targeted.
How long does it take to cross the Strait of Hormuz?
Three to six hours.
The TSS itself can be done in a couple of hours, but then it's a chokehold. Ships can take several hours due to heavy traffic.
Ships can be targeted even beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
Any ship coming towards or exiting Hormuz risks being hit.
How big are LPG and LNG tankers?
They are large size ships -- 200-250 metres long which is the size of INS Vikrant and even bigger.
22 Indian vessels are stranded. What happens when a ship is stuck?
Ships drop anchor off the port or they drift around.
If they drop anchor, hopefully there's food and water and the crew can survive for sometime. That's why ships try to stay close to port so they can be resupplied.
"During the Iran-Iraq war, a friend of mine was stuck in the Persian Gulf for three years," recalls Captain Gode.
Why insurance companies have raised premium
The big problem for ships with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is that insurance costs have shot up.
A ship's insurance is divided into various parts. First, the ship itself -- the hull insurance.
Protection and Indemnity clubs cover cargo damage and pollution. Pollution insurance is very high -- much higher than the value of the ship itself.
"For example, if a ship's worth about $100 million, the pollution cover might be as high as $1 billion! This is because if oil spills into the sea, the clean-up costs are huge," says Captain Gode.
Apart from that, the cargo and crew are insured. There's insurance in case the ship becomes a wreck. Even bunker fuel -- fuel carried by the ship -- is also insured because it can also cause pollution in case of an accident.
The freight from the voyage may not even cover the insurance cost. So many big container companies do not want to take that the risk.
"The unfortunate reality is that the cheapest thing in all of this is often the life of the seafarer. Usually, if crews sail into a risky area, they are offered double wages. But that 'double pay' is only calculated on basic salary, which is often just about 20% of their total wages," continues Captain Gode.
The extra money ends up being very small -- sometimes just about $20 or $30 a day for an ordinary seaman, sometimes even less.
"So why risk your life for so little? But the reality is many seafarers still go. For a lot of them, it's simple -- they need the job."
Photographs curated by Anant Salvi
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