Karnataka bypoll: Cong retains two assembly seats despite power tussle

The results are a setback to the Opposition BJP, which aimed to wrest the seats from the Congress and deal a blow to the ruling party.

The ruling Congress in Karnataka on Monday retained Bagalkot and Davanagere South assembly seats, giving a respite to Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and the party leadership, amid the ongoing power tussle over the leadership issue.

The results are a setback to the Opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, which aimed to wrest the seats from the Congress and deal a blow to the ruling party.

The polls were necessitated by the deaths of senior Congress MLAs H Y Meti (Bagalkot) and Shamanur Shivashankarappa (Davanagere South). The two victorious candidates in this by-election are family members of the deceased leaders.

Congress candidate Umesh Meti, son of H Y Meti, won the Bagalkot assembly seat by a margin of 22,332, defeating BJP's Veerabhadrayya Charantimath, a former MLA and a 2023 defeated candidate.

In Davanagere South Congress' Samarth Mallikarjun, Shivashankarappa's grandson, won by a margin of 5,708 votes, defeating BJP's Srinivasa T Dasakariyappa, a fresh face.

Although the outcome of these by-elections is unlikely to have an immediate impact on state politics, the contest was seen as a matter of prestige for both the ruling Congress and the opposition BJP.

While the Congress faced the challenge of retaining both seats, the BJP aimed to wrest them and deliver a setback to the ruling party, which is currently witnessing an "internal power struggle" over the chief minister change issue.

Party sources said retaining both seats was crucial for the Congress, as a loss could be seen as a negative verdict on the Siddaramaiah-led government's performance amid the internal power tussle.

The BJP hoped to make gains in the by-elections and energise its cadre ahead of the 2028 Assembly elections. By losing both seats the saffron party continued its record of losing bypolls--Shorapur, Sandur and Shiggaon--to Congress.

BJP's alliance partner Janata Dal-Secular too had lost Channapatna bypolls against the grand old party.

Congress's win in Bagalkot is attributed to several factors: a sympathy wave, the consolidation of AHINDA (Kannada acronym for minorities, backward classes, and Dalits) votes, and Chief Minister Siddaramaiah treating the bypolls as a prestige issue and investing significant time in campaigning.

The Congress, though happy over Davanagere South win, seems to be not satisfied with the victory margin. Party candidate Samarth's father, S S Mallikarjun, is a minister in the Siddaramaiah-led Cabinet and in charge of Davanagere district, while his mother, Prabha Mallikarjun, is a Member of Parliament from the region.

Muslim disgruntlement had been a concern for the Congress in Davanagere South. With 14 of the 25 candidates belonging to the community, the party had apprehensions about a vote split, which proved true when Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) candidate Afsar Kodlipete received 18,975 votes, ultimately affecting its victory margin.

Given its significant presence in the constituency, the Muslim community strongly demanded the Congress ticket for Davanagere South, however the party fielded late MLA Shivashankarappa's grandson Samarth. This is said to have caused disgruntlement among the community and Muslim leaders within Congress.

The Congress, after the polls, even took action against some Muslim leaders of the party following allegations of "internal conspiracy" to defeat the candidate in Davanagere South. The action included MLC K Abdul Jabbar being suspended from primary membership and Chief Minister Siddaramaiah relieving another MLC, Naseer Ahmed, from the post of CM's political secretary.

Following these actions, some Muslim clerics and leaders had openly warned the grand old party.

Speculation was rife that Housing Minister BZ Zameer Ahmed Khan may also face disciplinary measures during the next cabinet reshuffle.

"With Congress managing to win the bypolls in Davanagere South, it remains to be seen what action will follow," a party leader said.

In the 2023 Assembly elections, HY Meti defeated BJP's Charantimath by a margin of 5,878 votes in Bagalkot, while Shivashankarappa defeated BJP's B G Ajay Kumar by 27,888 votes in Davanagere South.

CM Siddaramaiah, thanking voters for the bypolls victory, said, "This mandate reflects both the achievements of our government and the enduring strength of the Congress party's ideology."

"Despite misinformation campaigns and the influence of money power, voters in both constituencies reaffirmed their trust in the Congress and our governance. We are committed to honouring this trust across the state and remain confident of continued public support in the upcoming Assembly election," he said.

Deputy CM and state Congress chief D K Shivakummar said, "The people have restored faith. They are telling that, again, you (Congress) will have to lead the state, and we will lead Karnataka."

Pointing at the votes garnered by SDPI in Davanagere, he said, "SDPI votes are a big danger for us. We did not expect them to cross so many votes. It's a big setback."

The BJP though they had fought the election unitedly, could not win. Party insiders said ruling parties usually have an advantage during bypolls, also consolidation of votes in favour of Congress -- AHINDA votes in Bagalkot and Veerashaiva Lingayat votes in Davanagere South -- has helped the ruling party, along with a sympathy wave.

State BJP chief B Y Vijayendra said, "Even though our candidates did not cross the threshold of victory, they have succeeded in earning the trust of the people to a considerable extent. This will serve as a stepping stone to victories in the coming days."