'India has been preparing for the last 15 days... it won't be easy for Pakistan if it tries to dominate escalation.'
With Operation Sindoor, India has flipped the script on how it responds to cross-border terrorism -- and Pakistan, seemingly, is scrambling for options.
In a sharply analytical conversation with Rediff's Prasanna D Zore, retired Indian Army Colonel Ajai Shukla -- whose defence commentary would be familiar to Rediff readers -- dissects the effects of India's strike on terror camps in Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir.
"Pakistan has traditionally tried to be one up on India," Colonel Shukla observes, recalling how Islamabad responded to India's May 1998 nuclear tests with one extra detonation, and followed the Balakot airstrikes in 2019 with a counter strike on an Indian military establishment. But this time, he says, the terrain has shifted.
Though the strike may have initially caught Pakistan off guard, Colonel Shukla dismisses the idea that Islamabad was truly blindsided.
"Anybody who tickles a sleeping dragon should expect a harsh response," he says, adding that if the Pakistan army was unprepared, "they should send their chief of army staff home."
What comes next? Colonel Shukla does not rule out further conflict, but believes both sides are likely to avoid a full-blown escalation.
"Everybody saved face, everybody got what they wanted," he says. "Now it's time to go home."
How will Pakistan respond to Operation Sindoor?
Pakistan has traditionally tried to be one up to India on all matters. When we had the nuclear test, India tested five weapons so Pakistan felt it had to test six.
When we went to destruct the terrorist camp in Balakot, Pakistan had to sort of demonstrate further superiority by striking an Indian military installation.
And now they will again be under pressure to say that India has done this so we must do this plus. But the problem for Pakistan is that India is prepared.
India has been getting ready for the last 15 days (the day since the Pahalgam terrorist attack killed 26 people on April 22, 2025).
It's been sort of preparing its military for the worst possible scenarios and it is not going to be easy for Pakistan if it tries to dominate escalation.
At first instance it looks like Pakistan was ill prepared. Pakistan didn't expect this. Was this a very surprising attack?
Pakistan very much expected this. I think anybody in Pakistan's position where they have just sort of tickled a sleeping dragon would be sort of prepared for a harsh response from the adversary. And I think if Pakistan was not prepared for this they really should send their chief of army staff home.
Do you think Pakistan will escalate the situation by attacking Indian cities?
Well, they would want to put an end to the escalation of this crisis. It is sort of evident to Pakistan, as I'm sure it is evident to people in India, that escalation is going to serve no purpose except to sort of bring both sides or one at least of the two sides into a position of grave sort of danger.
So I am looking more for signs of reducing the sort of danger that we are in of uncontrolled escalation. To use military phraseology and then sort of hoping that the matter dies down on its own without further escalation.
What message does Operation Sindoor send to Pakistan's army and the ISI?
As I mentioned earlier, that is no surprise at all. It would have been very surprising had India sort of not done anything at all.
How ready is India if Pakistan tries to escalate militarily or through proxies?
Well, India's military is, has traditionally been, in a state of high alert.
There has been this constant threat of militants and terrorists infiltrating Indian territory over the border fence or over the Line of Control fence. India is sort of well prepared for any situation of this eventuality.
And the only reason why things haven't happened so far (militarily escalated to the next level) is because Pakistan realises that it's not in a happy situation and it would be better to de-escalate rather than take this forward.
What are the lessons of Balakot that India has learned?
The lessons of Balakot are that firstly don't escalate beyond a point and if you do escalate, have an off ramp. Off ramp is basically terminology for a way of defusing the crisis. Because the worst thing in any crisis is if it just goes in for uncontrolled escalation and at that stage nobody has a grip on the situation.
In that scenario the chances of escalation are high. What I would be looking for, whether I was on the Indian side and in fact if I was on the Pakistani side also, is a way of de-escalating this crisis.
Everybody saved face, everybody got what they wanted and now it's time to go home.
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