'Hindus Voted Overwhelmingly For BNP'

'Tarique Rahman's refrain during the electoral campaign was that the minorities are safe under BNP. He has to honour that promise.'

"Tarique Rahman was no friend of India in the past -- and the BNP's proximity to Pakistan is an irritant," says Manash Ghosh, a senior journalist who was stationed in Dhaka for three years and has written two books -- Bangladesh War: Report from Ground Zero and Mujib's Blunders: The Power and the Plot Behind His Killing.

"Tarique Rahman says 17 years in exile have changed him. But whether that transformation is genuine remains to be seen," Mr Ghosh tells Rediff's Archana Masih on what to expect from the new BNP government and why India needs to tread with caution.

It has been reported that the BNP is going to ask for Sheikh Hasina's extradition. What are your thoughts on that? Where will the BNP stand on Sheikh Hasina's exile in India?

The Government of India will try to first ascertain the intention of the request. Whether they want her back to face legal proceedings, or carry out the death sentence or other political considerations.

If their purpose is to send her to the gallows, then the Government of India will not extradite her.

The Awami League is our best bet in Bangladesh. The BNP is certainly not its replacement.

It was very unfortunate that Muhammad Yunus illegally banned the Awami League without any constitutional sanction.

Under the constitution, a party can only be banned if it promotes religious hatred or extremism. The Awami League did not fall into that category.

In fact, the party was banned out of Yunus's personal vindictiveness. He did it because he was hauled up in court by Sheikh Hasina.

The attempt by the BNP to normalise the political climate in Bangladesh is a good sign.

We have no other option, but to support the BNP, considering the prevalent situation including the American and Pakistani pressures and shifts in Bangladesh. India had little option but to engage with the BNP.

What kind of prime minister will Tarique Rahman turn out to be in your understanding?

India didn't have a pleasant experience when he was vice-chairman of the party during his mother's dispensation. We don't have good memories of his leadership. He was second in command and was called the 'Crown Prince'.

He indulged in all kinds of opposition-baiting, especially Awami League-baiting.

There were many instances of his high-handed behaviour which was a disaster for the party and made even the military unhappy.

He was involved in the infamous 10 truck load of Chinese arms and ammunition recovered from a jetty in Chittagong meant for ULFA. His cronies who were involved are still around.

He was also sentenced to life for the grenade attack on the Sheikh Hasina rally in 2004, but was acquitted in 2024.

He was no friend of India.

Now, Tarique Rahman says that his 17 years in London have changed him. But whether that transformation is genuine remains to be seen.

Do you think he will be different from what he was before, now that he has been elected into office for the first time?

As a politician, he is still an unknown entity, and has been out of touch with the nitty-gritty of Bangladesh politics for the last 17 years.

The only touch that he had was through virtual appearances at various party meetings.

He was not yet in command, but now that he is in the thick of things, let's see how he fares. Whether India can rely on him, we are not sure.

How should India deal with this new BNP government?

The BJP leadership believed that we should not put all our eggs in one basket. It was part of this policy that India tried to reach out to the BNP leadership, especially Tarique Rahman since he was the crown prince of the party.

At one point, he had made overtures to India about Bangladesh's natural gas. There were discussions and he made trips to India. But after the BNP won the election in 2001, it changed its tune overnight and stated it did not have surplus gas.

But it was the arms smuggling which saw the relations with the BNP fall.

The BNP's proximity to the Pakistan leadership is an irritant for India. It was during Khaleda Zia's leadership that Pervez Musharraf, who was then the president of Pakistan, overstayed a so-called official visit and held all kinds of discussions [including with ULFA leader Anup Chetia].

Tarique Rahman, while in exile, made overtures to India to renew the relationship and put it on an even keel. India has responded positively, let's see what happens.

What about the concern for the safety of the Hindus? You think that now that the election is over, this will be addressed?

Tarique Rahman's constant refrain during the electoral campaign was that the minorities are safe under BNP.

He has to honour that promise. He has to control the criminal and rabid elements.

It is important to know that Hindus have voted overwhelmingly for the BNP. In fact, it was the Hindu vote which helped BNP to keep Jamaat away from power.

Four Hindu candidates have been elected from the BNP, including two former ministers -- Goyeshwar Chandra Roy and Nitai Roy Chowdhury.

That is an encouraging sign. But symbolism must be backed by enforcement.

How do you see Bangladesh balancing its relationships with Pakistan and China, especially given India's concerns about the increasing footprint of Pakistan and China in Bangladesh?

He has assured the Indian leadership that he will be watchful of India's concerns in Bangladesh.

Especially about India's internal security concerns and not allow insurgent groups to set up camps and launch pads in Bangladesh.

His mother did not honour her pledge. In fact, she played politics and there were frequent incidents of infiltrators crossing the porous border to carry out acts of terror like bomb blasts.

Let's see whether he will be a different person from what he was in his earlier incarnation as leader of the BNP, and not repeat the past.

What do you see as the future of the Awami League?

It is going to be a very long haul for the Awami League. Many grassroots leaders have been imprisoned, many have been killed.

The party's foundational base has been severely weakened.

The Awami League has to rebuild the party. Sheikh Hasina is already in her late 70s and does not have that old vigour to revitalise the party.

Much will depend on whether she is allowed to return -- and under what circumstances.

What do you see as the future of Dr Yunus?

He will have to do a lot of answering for his misdeeds and decisions made during his tenure. All the decisions that he took -- millions of takas waived as tax concessions, property acquired for building a Grameen University and various Grameen institutions in Bangladesh.

He will have to provide answers for the deal reportedly struck with Tarique Rehman during meetings in London that orchestrated his return from exile, provided Yunus is allowed to become the president.

Under the draft of the new constitution, the president has expanded powers. Whether Tarique Rahman is agreeable to this referendum outcome is also remains to be seen.

What are the biggest challenges facing the new prime minister?

The education system has virtually collapsed. The universities are not back to normal.

Students are being kept away forcibly. Students and teachers aligned to the Awami League are not being allowed to return to classes.

The entire education system needs a re-haul.

The economy is in bad shape. Almost 40 lakh people have lost their jobs. Tarique Rahman's policy is that he will get back all the concessions and is keenly awaiting whether he will be able to strike a good deal with the Trump administration.

The challenges are numerous and whether he can measure up to those challenges remains to be seen.

It is a tall order forr Tarique Rahman.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff