'It is best to remain vigilant. Tarique Rahman arranged arms smuggling to Indian insurgent groups.'
'He has criticised India for sheltering Sheikh Hasina, but has also sought India's support.'
"Bangladesh is a regional power, don't belittle their achievements. It has better social indicators and a higher GDP per capita than Pakistan which gets the importance and attention. Bangladesh can shape India's vulnerabilities (such as the Chicken's Neck) either way," says Ambassador Jitendra Nath Misra, India's former envoy to Portugal who also served in the Indian high commission in Dhaka.
"India must not conduct diplomacy through the media. Don't ban Bangladeshi cricketers or avoid handshakes. It angers ordinary Bangladeshis and deprives them of the joys of sport, without changing Bangladeshi State behaviour," Ambassador Misra tells Rediff's Archana Masih in a detailed two-part interview discussing the coming Bangladesh elections, the politics of prime ministerial hopeful Tarique Rahman and what is needed to stabilise India-Bangladesh relations.
'Right now, India looks bad to Bangladesh'
Despite the current acrimony in India-Bangladesh relations, what measures would be necessary to restore and stabilise bilateral ties? Will this be a long drawn process?
India must not conduct diplomacy through the media. Don't ban Bangladeshi cricketers or avoid handshakes. It angers ordinary Bangladeshis and deprives them of the joys of sport, without changing Bangladeshi State behaviour.
Geography and economic interdependence impose limits on confrontation. India's foreign policy managers recognise that we can't bet on ties with a single political entity. Intensified engagement with the BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) is the priority and that's what India is doing.
On its part Bangladesh should not deny atrocities against Hindus and other minorities, make a good-faith effort to stop attacks, and seek to insulate India from domestic politics.
Historically, our ties have gone through cycles. I have read that in 2021 there was significant support in Bangladesh for developing economic ties to India, because it helped Bangladesh's development.
There was a recognition of mutual prosperity there. Right now, India looks bad to Bangladesh. Things will calm down when a new government takes charge, that's exactly what happened when the BNP came to power in 1991.
They saw the merit of pragmatic engagement with India, I saw it first-hand in Dhaka as a junior diplomat.
Remember that the two nations are mutually invested through ties of history and culture. Can you cut that off? No!
Will the election of a new government in February open a window for improved relations, even if it is helmed by Tarique Rahman and the BNP known for their closeness to Pakistan?
Yes, because things can't get much worse. Tarique Rahman has made mature statements; the BNP has broken ties with the Jamaat seeking to occupy the centrist space.
Rahman might calculate that working with India, or at least not antagonising India, is the best bet. But he comes from a culture of wariness towards India. Could he evolve? If the BNP doesn't get a majority in the upcoming elections and has to depend on Islamists (minus the Jamaat) it might have less wiggle room on India.
Bangladesh is a regional power, don't belittle their achievements. It has better social indicators and a higher GDP per capita than Pakistan which gets the importance and attention. Bangladesh can shape India's vulnerabilities (such as the Chicken's Neck) either way.
Some Indians are making calls to occupy northern Bangladesh for greater strategic depth. Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus has said for India's northeast Bangladesh is the only gateway to the oceans.
Bangladesh has joined the UN Water Convention to improve its negotiating position on a new Ganga Waters Treaty which expired in December 2025. Will India restore Bangladesh's suspended trans-shipment rights?
Diplomacy must be conducted in the shadows, not from loudspeakers.
'History helps understand Tarique Rahman's politics'
What kind of leadership is Tarique Rahman likely to exhibit? What do you think distinguishes and defines his politics?
It is best to remain vigilant. Rahman arranged arms smuggling to Indian insurgent groups. He was convicted on corruption and terrorism-related cases. The Yunus regime secured his acquittal.
He has criticised India for sheltering Sheikh Hasina, but has also sought India's support. Will ties be different if the BNP wins the elections? You could ask me this question after the results are out!
Here is an indicator from the past. In her second term as the prime minister, Khaleda Zia opposed transit rights for India. Are transit arrangements developed during the Hasina regime dense enough to survive regime change? Will Tarique Rahman still seek to reverse them? I don't know.
India is reaching out to the BNP in the expectation it will win the elections. India's choices are bad, or worse. The BNP is the bad choice. Prime Minister Modi sent a condolence message after Khaleda Zia's death and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar attended her funeral.
I haven't read about an open Indian outreach to the Jamaat or the National Citizen Party.
History helps understand Rahman's politics. As much as being born after a freedom struggle, Bangladesh is also rooted in Muslim separatism in India.
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The idea of Bangladesh owes to the idea of Pakistan. The Pakistan plan was for two independent Muslim States. That's what happened in 1971; I call it India's second Partition.
Bangladesh was achieved through a struggle for linguistic rights led by a secular elite. But the original idea of two Muslim nations was always lurking in the background.
Since freedom has been achieved, language as a marker of identity counts for less. Bangladesh asserts an identity that marks it as different from neighbouring West Bengal, and from India.
Whether it's the Awami League ruling, or the BNP, it doesn't matter. But in the public imagination, the BNP is the true champion of an Islam-first 'Bangladeshi nationalism', not the Awami League.
This will remain the core of the BNP's ideology whether it comes to power, or not.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff
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