'Pakistan's role in Bangladesh will always be negative, since it's a one-point agenda is hostility against India.'
"Pakistan's aggressive outreach towards Bangladesh's military indicates that it would be planning to co-opt them for conducting anti-India activities from Bangladeshi soil," says Ambassador Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, India's former high commissioner to Bangladesh.
In his distinguished career in the Indian Foreign Service, the ambassador served two tenures in Dhaka, first as deputy chief of mission and then as high commissioner.
He was also India's ambassador to Thailand and served in Cairo, Karachi, Jeddah, London and Tel Aviv.
In an interview to Rediff's Archana Masih, Ambassador Chakravarty discusses the implications of the return from exile of Tarique Rahman, the next likely PM, the Pakistan-China-Bangladesh nexus, the current anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh and measures to restore bilateral stability.
The sympathy factor after the passing of Khaleda Zia, the return of her son Tarique Rahman after 17 years in exile and the electoral ban on the Awami League has made the Bangladesh Nationalist Party the frontrunner in the Bangladesh polls next month.
What will the return of the BNP or a coalition with the Islamist Jamat-e-Islami party, mean for India?
It certainly seems that the electoral prospects of the BNP are brighter, in the absence of the Awami League.
Khaleda Zia's death is likely to swing additional votes towards the BNP.
For India, dealing with any government in Dhaka has been the norm. Given the past history of bilateral ties under the BNP-Jamaat coalition government, India will be watching very carefully.
India has already extended a hand of friendship to Tarique and set up a dialogue with the Jamaat. India hopes that pragmatism and realism will guide the new government in Dhaka.
With India-Bangladesh relations deteriorating following Sheikh Hasina's ouster, marked by anti-India sentiment and anti-Hindu violence, how effective can the recent visit by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar to personally condole Khaleda Zia's death with Tarique Rahman, the likely next PM -- be, and what broader measures are required to restore stability in bilateral relations?
I believe that EAM Jaishankar's visit to attend the funeral of Khaleda Zia and handing over a condolence letter from PM Modi to Tarique, clearly signals India's willingness to work with a new democratically elected government.
It will not require much effort to restore the mutually beneficial status quo in bilateral ties, if the new government opts to show the political will to do so.
With China and Pakistan increasing their strategic and intelligence footprint near the Siliguri Corridor, and reports of ISI-linked activity in the region, what new threats could emerge for the mainland's sole land link to the north east, particularly from the China-Pakistan-Bangladesh defence nexus?
Bangladesh drifting into a China-Pakistan axis will have repercussions on bilateral ties with India, if such ties lead to anti-India activities, particularly near the Siliguri Corridor.
India will be taking countermeasures to protect its security.
Pakistan's aggressive outreach towards Bangladesh's military indicates that it would be planning to co-opt them for conducting anti-India activities from Bangladeshi soil.
Another aspect of this axis is the re-arming of Bangladesh with modern Chinese fighter aircraft, helicopters and other weaponry from Pakistan and Turkey.
It seems unlikely that the Bangladesh military and its intelligence arm will collaborate in conducting overt anti-India operations.
How can India counter the growing Chinese-Pakistan influence in Bangladesh?
Smaller countries generally tend to balance a larger more powerful neighbour by relying on other countries which have an adversarial relationship with the larger country -- the old Kautilyan dictum that my enemy's enemy is my friend.
Bangladesh is no exception to this norm.
The crucial aspect will be the extent of this balancing effort and its impact on India's security interests.
If Bangladesh's actions challenge India's security 'Red Lines', it will force India to adopt countermeasures that will impact Bangladesh adversely.
Does Sheikh Hasina's presence in India limit the prospects for improvement in bilateral relations?
Hasina's presence in India will be an irritation but may not be an impediment to bilateral ties which are defined by compelling factors like historical, geographical and economic interests.
Politicians are sometimes put in a predicament when they go into exile. Tarique remained in exile for 17 years, when he sought asylum in the UK.
Bangladesh always has the option of activating the bilateral extradition treaty to deal with this issue.
Do you think a reset in relations would be more likely under Tarique Rahman? Or his and his party's closeness to Pakistan seriously imperils such a prospect?
India is being positive and hoping to reset ties without the overhang of the past. Pakistan's role in Bangladesh will always be negative, since it's a one-point agenda is hostility against India. Moreover, in the economic domain, Pakistan has very little to offer to Bangladesh.
With the prevailing political climate under the interim government and the ban on the Awami League, can Bangladesh realistically hold free, fair and credible elections? How will the outcome of such an election be received globally?
It is becoming clear that the elections will exclude the Awami League which has itself decided to boycott the elections, claiming it will not be free and fair under the auspices of an 'illegal government'.
India has called for free, fair and inclusive elections for it to be credible. Without the Awami League, a sense of unfairness will linger and cause future political problems.
Do you believe that India should have negotiated a territorial alignment to enhance the Chicken Neck's territorial security shortly after the 1971 victory when our relations were on a high -- and this would have held us in good stead during the prevailing tension, 54 years later?
A territorial adjustment is unrealistic and also unnecessary. Hence, India did not pursue this course, keeping in mind that the border was already drawn between India and East Pakistan in 1971.
Only minor adjustments have been made since 1971, like the 999 year lease of Indian territory to Bangladesh -- the 'Teen Bigha Corridor' -- and the Land Boundary Agreement which completed 100% of the demarcation of the border.
Contingency plans are always ready to deal with any territorial and security threats. India's military deployments in the region are tasked with monitoring any such threats.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff
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