'Should China's interest in the Teesta River projects be approved, it would likely result in heightened Chinese presence near the Siliguri corridor.'
"Regular discussions between top military leaders from Pakistan and Bangladesh suggest a more intense strategic planning phase, potentially resulting in the rapid execution of decisions made during these talks," says Shreyas Deshmukh, Researcher, National Security Programme of the Delhi Policy Group.
His work experience spans subjects, including geopolitical developments, traditional and non-traditional security, and socio-political stability in South Asia.
"India should keep its defence ties with Bangladesh and continue joint military drills. Proactive back-channel defence diplomacy could help mitigate the effects of the increasing strategic influence of Pakistan and China in Bangladesh," Mr Deshmukh tells Rediff's Archana Masih.
Does Pakistan's aggressive outreach towards Bangladesh's military indicate that it would be planning to co-opt them for conducting anti-India activities from Bangladeshi soil?
How can India counter the growing Pakistan-Chinese influence in Bangladesh?
Regular discussions between top military leaders from Pakistan and Bangladesh suggest a more intense strategic planning phase, potentially resulting in the rapid execution of decisions made during these talks.
The ongoing visit of Bangladesh's Air Chief Marshal Hasan Mahmood Khan to Pakistan includes discussions about integrating air defence radar systems, which might pose a substantial strategic security risk to India.
High-ranking former Pakistani military officials recently toured Bangladesh army and navy bases situated near the Indian border.
The security situation in the Chittagong Hills has deteriorated over the past year. The instances of drones being sighted and captured by Indian agencies originating from Bangladesh, as well as the Bangladesh police's seizure of 20,000 uniforms belonging to the Kuki-Chin National Front in May 2025, have elicited apprehension within India.
The aforementioned developments, together with shifts in bilateral and multilateral relations, as seen in the case of Bangladesh-Pakistan-China, are alarming.
China has expressed interest in Teesta River management projects. Should the project be approved, it would likely result in a heightened Chinese presence near the Siliguri corridor.
However, with the current interim government in charge, it's too soon to predict Bangladesh's future course. Probably, post-election, India will establish and implement its policy decisions on these matters.
In the meantime, India should keep its defence ties with Bangladesh and continue joint military drills. Proactive back-channel defence diplomacy could help mitigate the effects of the increasing strategic influence of Pakistan and China in Bangladesh.
The tension between India-Bangladesh has escalated further by the killings of Hindus, how will the escalating violence against minorities impact the already strained India-Bangladesh relations?
What spill over effect could this have, especially in border areas?
While the attacks on minorities in Bangladesh are a domestic matter, they represent major human rights violations in accordance with global norms. Thus, this should not be regarded as a selective bias if India addresses this issue at an official level.
The situation in Bangladesh, where Hindus are deliberately targeted and blasphemy accusations are used as a cover, is a serious concern, particularly because it echoes the conditions in Pakistan.
After the change of government, the targeting of not only Hindus but also other Muslim minority groups has increased. This action could initiate a new outflow of people fleeing the country.
Given the instability of Bangladesh's eastern border with Myanmar, India is the most accessible place of refuge. This movement of people brings genuine refugees and also other undesirable individuals into the already unstable eastern border regions of India.
Myanmar, along with neighbouring areas of Bangladesh, is turning into a key location for the illicit trade of drugs, illegal arms, and human trafficking.
The Border Security Force and Indian security agencies might face a significant challenge in managing this situation. Given the anti-Indian stance of the current Bangladeshi government, which could influence the actions of the Border Guards, the possibility of border conflicts remains.
The tension has entered the cricketing arena as well, resulting in the termination of the KKR contract with Mustafizur Rahman and the Bangladesh team not wanting to play T20 World Cup matches in India -- do you see Bangladesh going the Pakistan way as far as India's sporting relations are concerned?
A decline in relations between two states has repercussions across the board. Sports are not something that can be exempt.
The state's collective psyche is at play here, and it doesn't separate its emotions depending on the nature of relationships; instead, it seeks to apply them universally, be it between individuals, culturally, or strategically.
With elections a month away, to what extent has Muhammad Yunus' interim government damaged India-Bangladesh ties?
A single leader or government's actions don't fully define the relationship between two nations. This relationship characterises how different generations interact in various fields. The current relationship between India and Bangladesh appears strained, possibly due to public sentiment and the specific policy decisions of the interim government's leadership.
However, the preliminary damage to the relationship is not extensive and can be rectified swiftly.
Once a new government is elected -- despite questions over its legitimacy due to the ban on the Awami League -- can stability and normalcy return to India-Bangladesh relations?
The validity of Bangladeshi elections has consistently been challenged. We can't rule out the chance of improved relations between India and Bangladesh after the elections.
Public opinion polls show the BNP in the lead, and some of its prominent members have stated they intend to foster positive relations with India.
What direction is Bangladesh likely to take under a potential Tarique Rahman-led government, and what implications would a BNP return, given its historical closeness to Pakistan, have for India?
The victory of the BNP in the elections is still uncertain because student and Islamic parties have formed a political alliance. While the BNP has historically been linked to Pakistan, the party's current leaders will likely strive for balanced relations given the existing geopolitical and economic situation.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff
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