'In Bangladesh, 2 Plus 2 Is Not Always 4'

'It is either 22 or 0.'

"The BNP is influenced by both Pakistan and China. They have regular meetings with the Pakistan high commissioner. Both China and Pakistan are friendly towards Tarique Rahman, the likely next prime minister," says senior journalist Goutam Lahiri, who has extensively covered Bangladesh politics.

"However, Bangladesh needs India's support. Tarique Rahman will have to do a fine balancing act," Mr Lahiri tells Rediff's Archana Masih.

The people of Bangladesh will vote for a new government 18 months after a students' revolution brought down its longest serving prime minister.
After a turbulent one-and-a-half years, and with the Awami League banned from participating in the polls, what trajectory is the country likely to take under a new elected government?

The story of Bangladesh will begin from February 12. We have already witnessed one part of the country's history; the next chapter will unfold after this election.

Bangladesh part 2 starts from today.

It is only right that an elected government will be replacing an unelected so-called interim government which has been in power for 18 months.

There are only two main contenders in the field because the Awami League, the major party, has been barred from participation. Yet it has more than 30 per cent support among the people, especially at the grassroots level.

Awami League leaders are either in jail or in hiding, but the basic party structure and workers are out there in the field.

Now the question remains which side will they prefer from the two main contenders -- the Bangladesh Nationalist Party led by Tarique Rahman, Khaleda Zia's son, who returned from exile after 17 years, and the Jamaat-e-Islami led 11-party alliance.

India has no choice and has to work with whichever government is elected.

One expectation would be that the Awami League leaders in exile are able to secure a deal so that they can go back and start minimum political work.

Hopefully, the next election will take place after five years. For the Jamaat-e-Islami, this is their closest shot at power -- now or never.

In the absence of the Awami League, this is their best chance to come to power or become a deciding factor in who forms the next government.

If they secure a good number of seats and form a strong Opposition, they might be in a position to dictate terms to the next government.

If so, they can create all kinds of troubles for the BNP government.

Already, there are constant verbal fights between these two parties.

One hopes there will be a peaceful election and a legitimate government comes into power.

Bangladesh is a peculiar country where 2 plus 2 is not always 4; it is either 22 or 0.

How will the ban on the Awami League, given its estimated 30% ground support, reflect on voter turnout?

Whenever a major political party has not participated in the polls, the voting percentage has been low.

This will lead to dissatisfaction and unrest within society.

That is why people are questioning the legitimacy of the election.

Even if the BNP comes into power, I doubt they will be able to govern smoothly. There is a possibility of a mid-term poll in the coming years which will involve all political parties.

Tarique Rahman has said on record that he doesn't believe in banning a political party and has no problem if Sheikh Hasina's sons and daughters enter the political arena. His reservation is about Sheikh Hasina.

This is not a simple election, but also includes a referendum on the July Charter constituted after the students' revolution.

The referendum on the changes in the constitution will take place on the same day.

There are two ballots -- one for the parliamentary election and the other for the referendum.

Four points have been mentioned on the referendum ballot which is pink in colour. Actually, the July Charter had more than 37-38 issues that have been summarised in four points.

There is a mention in the charter that if the majority votes 'yes', then all the recommendations mentioned in the charter should be implemented within 140 working days.

What happens to Muhammad Yunus' government after the election?

Whether Dr Yunus will retire on that day or not is not known or mentioned in the charter. There are several disputes and differences about the points in the charter, so there might be confrontation among the political parties.

In the recent university elections held after many years, the Jamaat's student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir, swept the polls. While the students who actually launched the movement against Sheikh Hasina did not win a single seat.

Similarly, in the national election, the student movement which lead the movement against Hasina has been sidelined.

The National Citizen Party founded by the youth after the uprising were unable to carve political space for themselves and had to align with the Jamaat.

What is the reason for this?

Bangladesh polity has hovered around these three poles -- the Awami League, BNP and Jamaat.

The National Citizen Party founded by the students is a new party. Jamaat has said that if it comes to power, it will accommodate the NCP, but the BNP has not made any promise.

So there is a hidden fault line within political camps which will cause upheaval in the near future. Bangladesh will not be politically stable.

How do you think India is viewing the post-poll situation in Bangladesh?

India is perplexed because the election both in Bangladesh and Myanmar are not inclusive and participatory.

India will reach out to the BNP and will be willing to forget the difficult experience it had with the Khaleda Zia-led BNP government between 2001 to 2006.

Do you think India's experience with Tarique Rahman will be better than what it was with his late mother?

That is the hope.

The BNP is influenced both by both Pakistan and China. They have regular meetings with the Pakistan high commissioner. Both China and Pakistan are friendly towards Tarique.

However, Bangladesh needs India's support. Tarique Rahman will have to do a fine balancing act. In the future, he will have to reach some sort of understanding with the Awami League.

Ultimately, the BNP will have to seek the support of Awami League cadres since it does not have a strong base itself -- especially if the Jamaat attempts to destabilise Tarique Rahman.

So, like I said before, the story of Bangladesh begins today.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff