A poor monsoon could drag overall economic growth and compound the impact of the West Asia conflict on the Indian economy.
Above-normal cold wave days are expected in some areas of central India, eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during January 2026.
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday raised India's GDP growth forecast to 6.9 per cent for current fiscal year, from 6.5 per cent earlier, citing strong June quarter growth and domestic consumption-led demand.
Pre-monsoon rainfall, colloquial referred to as "mango showers", is vital to many parts of the country.
India's industrial production growth accelerated to a 4-month high of 3.5 per cent in July this year due to good performance of manufacturing sector, according to official data released on Thursday. The country's industrial output earlier recorded this level of growth at 3.9 per cent in March 2025.
Data since 2005 show that the five years with the highest rainfall saw average market returns of 8.98 per cent, while the five driest years returned 25.7 per cent on average.
Flash floods in Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province have resulted in a significant loss of life, with the death toll rising to 327 in the last 48 hours. The disaster has prompted relief efforts from the army and government agencies.
This was a soaring evening that sent hearts aflutter and for a few brief moments we tasted the breath of pure freedom that has been missing in this country for the past several years.
This would be due to early monsoon onset, abundant precipitation in the soil and the government's higher minimum support price (MSP) for farmers, the USDA said in its assessment.
He clarified that though China has not announced any such move, but even if it happens, it would in fact help mitigate the annual Assam floods.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted above-normal rainfall for the upcoming monsoon season in India (June to September). The cumulative rainfall is estimated to be 105 percent of the long-period average. The IMD has also ruled out the possibility of El Nino conditions during the entire season. The monsoon is crucial for India's agriculture sector, which supports the livelihood of a significant portion of the population and contributes substantially to the country's GDP. However, while the prediction of normal rainfall brings relief, climate change is expected to cause variations in rainfall distribution.
'The global climate system doesn't look at where the carbon dioxide is coming from. 'It may be emitted by the US, but it will not remain above the US alone but covers the whole world.'
Global experts last week gave the same forecast.
States are mandated to develop and implement 'heat HAPs' for prevention of heat-induced diseases. But most do not go beyond standard advisory on heat prevention.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said economic activity in some sectors have picked up pace during October-November and a GDP growth of 6.5-7 per cent in the current fiscal is feasible.
'The intensity and frequency of heatwaves will be much higher than in previous years over Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha.'
The IMD said that rainfall over India in August and September would be around 106 percent of the long-period average of 422.8 mm.
The IMD said India did not experience any "break monsoon" conditions this year because of the large number of low-pressure systems.
The above map shows the amount of rainfall received by each district from June 1 to July 24, 2019.
Himachal Pradesh experienced its second snowfall of the season, leading to the closure of 15 roads, including two national highways. A tourist from New Delhi died in an accident on an icy road in the Lahaul Spiti district, while three others sustained injuries.
Intermittent, widespread rains lashed Chennai and other regions of Tamil Nadu on Tuesday and the India meteorological department said the low pressure area over the Bay of Bengal has turned into a well-marked low pressure area and it is likely to become a depression.
India is likely to see above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures in most parts of the country in the March to May period, IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said at a press conference.
In addition to that, 68 people still remain missing, with 100 more sustaining injuries in the disaster.
Passenger vehicles wholesales in India rose 1.3 per cent year-on-year to 335,629 units in April, automobile industry body SIAM said on Tuesday. The passenger vehicle (PV) dispatches from companies to dealers stood at 331,278 units in April 2023.
Moody's Ratings on Tuesday said India's growing water shortage can disrupt farm and industry sectors and is detrimental to the credit health of the sovereign as rising food inflation and decline in income may spark social unrest. It said decreases in water supply can disrupt agricultural production and industrial operations, resulting in inflation in food prices and hence can be detrimental to credit health of sectors that heavily consume water, such as coal power generators and steel-makers.
June rainfall accounts for 15 percent of the total precipitation of 87 cm recorded during the four-month monsoon season in the country.
"This year, the Southwest Monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on May 31 with a model error of four days," the India meteorological department said on Wednesday.
The rains after arriving over Kerala will quickly cover Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, but then might slacken a bit, which could delay its arrival over Northwest India.
The southwest monsoon season concluded on Saturday with India receiving 'below-average' cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in an El Nino year.
India has received 20 per cent less rainfall since the start of the monsoon period on June 1, with the rain-bearing system making no significant progress between June 12 and 18, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The El Nino impact on the Indian monsoon typically manifests by way of extended break in rainfall.
The country can expect normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere are likely to counter the evolving El Nino conditions, the India meteorological department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
A prolonged break in monsoon rains in most parts of the country is threatening to hit the yield of kharif crops. It could even delay the upcoming rabi sowing. Major agricultural states, such as Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, and Gujarat, have witnessed a deficit of 30-80 per cent in southwest monsoon rainfall in August compared to the long-period average for the month. Meteorologists see no big revival in monsoon rains from hereon, though they forecast "some activity" over the Bay of Bengal on September 5-6.
India is likely to experience below-normal monsoon rainfall this year, with a 20 per cent chance of drought due to the end of La Nina conditions and the potential for El Nino to take hold, private forecasting agency Skymet Weather said on Monday.
The meeting came in the backdrop of protests by farmers bodies against the release of Cauvery river water to Tamil Nadu.
Higher inflation has again become a matter of concern for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies. After prices of commodities like sugar and wheat moved higher and stabilised at those levels, the crude oil too surged, adding to FMCG firms' worries. Besides, a dry spell in August in the ongoing monsoon season impacted rural demand.
Climate change has hampered the ability of the forecasting agencies to accurately predict severe events and weather bureaus across the world are focusing on augmenting the observational network density and the weather prediction modelling to improve predictability, India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra has said.
Irregular rainfall and a pick-up in commodity costs are expected to weigh on the demand and margins of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies. Most companies reported a sharp expansion in gross margins in the April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), given the lower prices of key raw materials and earlier price hikes. Furthermore, there were expectations that cost savings being passed on could reflect in volume growth going forward. However, these hopes could be dashed if demand recovery, especially in the rural segment, stalls, and gains on the raw material front start to recede.
States have been told to prepare in advance to counter any impact of an adverse southwest monsoon.
The relief and rehabilitation measures were running in full swing with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar launching a drive under which over Rs 180 crore were disbursed among affected people through direct cash transfer.
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