The sudden stop in economic activity led to a sharp decline in employment-intensive sectors like construction, manufacturing and trade, hotels, transport etc.
The economy, though projected to grow 9.6 per cent in the next financial year in year-on-year growth term, may grow just 1 per cent in real terms to Rs 147.17 lakh crore as against Rs 145.66 lakh crore in 2019-20, at the 2011-12 prices, according to a report by India Ratings. The size of the economy, as per the National Statistical Office's data, had stood at Rs 145.66 lakh crore in 2019-20, at the 2011-12 prices. According to the rating agency, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to contract 7.8 per cent to Rs 134.33 lakh crore in 2020-21, but may grow 9.6 per cent to Rs 147.17 lakh crore in 2021-22.
Is the worst over for Indian banks? The past two years saw them ride on treasury trades as deposits soared and credit growth dipped sharply. Gross and net non-performing assets (NPAs) moved south, and the provision coverage ratio (PCR), capital buffers, and profitability indicators are back at pre-pandemic levels. So, what's the plot ahead?
Gross enrolments of new subscribers with ESIC were 1.49 crore during the entire financial year 2018-19.
The manufacturing sector, which constitute more than 77 per cent of the index, recorded a growth of 5.2 per cent in April, up from 2.9 per cent in the year ago month.
With no rate cuts on the table, the other monetary policy alternative could be to reduce the width of the asymmetric policy corridor or increase in reverse repo rate when the pandemic subsides, they opined.
The substantially increased economic dualism may exert lasting negative influences which could include a reduced potential for economic growth; the persistence of a very weak employment and poverty situation; rising social and political discord; and heightened vulnerability to geopolitical challenges, cautions Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
Gross enrolments of new subscribers with the ESIC were 1.49 crore during 2018-19.
India's industrial production grew by 1 per cent in December, official data showed on Friday. According to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data, the manufacturing sector output grew by 1.6 per cent in December 2020.
The report on 'Household Social Consumption: Education in India as part of 75th round of National Sample Survey -- from July 2017 to June 2018' provides for state-wise detail of literacy rate among the persons aged seven years and above.
Expect a more modest out-turn of around 5 per cent (if not less) because of the longer-term scarring effects of the Covid shock, the sharply slowing growth in the pre-Covid years and some scepticism about the growth-efficacy of some of recent official policy initiatives, explains Shankar Acharya, former chief economic advisor to the government.
BSE-listed companies' market capitalisation reached Rs 197.7 trillion on January 21, against India's nominal GDP of Rs 190 trillion during 12 months ended December 2020.
The rate of price rise in the food basket contracted by 0.86 per cent in October compared to 0.51 per cent rise in September
Economists, however, caution against interpreting the data as a broad-based revival
During the month, inflation in vegetables shot up to 35.99 per cent, as against 26.10 per cent in October. Likewise, the prices of cereals and eggs grew at a faster pace of 3.71 per cent.
Earlier, the CSO in its advance estimate had pegged the GDP growth rate for 2018-19 at 7.2 per cent.
'The death toll in the UK is anything between 33,000 and 38,000. That's filling our stadium and then filling it half again. It's a sobering thought.'
Most rating agencies had projected contraction in India's GDP for the first quarter of 2020-21.
The wholesale price-based inflation accelerated to a record high of 12.94 per cent in May, on rising prices of crude oil and manufactured goods. Low base effect also contributed to the spike in WPI inflation in May 2021. In May 2020, WPI inflation was at (-) 3.37 per cent. This is the fifth straight month of uptick seen in the wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation. In April, 2021, WPI inflation hit double digit at 10.49 per cent. "The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, was 12.94 per cent for the month of May, 2021 (over May, 2020) as compared to (-) 3.37 per cent in May 2020.
The rate of price rise in the protein rich items like eggs, milk and other products too moderated in March as against the previous month.
In a paper, EAC-PM accused Subramanian of "cherry-picking high-frequency indicators" to express his skepticism about the growth rates after 2011-12.
Pushed by rising prices of essential kitchen items, the retail inflation rose to an eight-month high of 7.34 per cent in September, making the RBI's task to push growth by reducing the interest rate even more difficult in coming the days. The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation was 6.69 per cent in August and 3.99 per cent in September 2019. Inflation has been hovering above 4 per cent since October 2019.
The final Budget for the fiscal is likely to be tabled in July after formation of the new government.
India's industrial production contracted by 3.6 per cent in February, official data showed on Monday. According to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), manufacturing sector output declined by 3.7 per cent in February 2021. Retail inflation rose to 5.52 per cent in March, mainly on account of higher food prices, government data showed on Monday. The consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation stood at 5.03 per cent in February.
The rate of price rise for consumer foods eased to 4.7 per cent in January, from 4.96 per cent in December.
As per use-based classification, primary good registered a growth of 7.4 per cent, intermediate goods 22.4 per cent, and infrastructure/construction goods 0.1 per cent in February 2020 as against the same period a year ago.
'I expect fourth quarter GDP growth to be sharply down.' 'I would imagine it would shave off at least one percentage point, if not more, as compared to the third quarter.'
The RBI, which mainly factors in CPI for arriving at its bi-monthly monetary policy, has been mandated by the government to ensure that inflation remains at 4 per cent, with deviation of 2 per cent on either side.
India's factory output climbed 22.4 per cent in March, benefiting from the base effect of the lockdown-marred month a year back as well as a turnaround in the manufacturing sector, while retail inflation slipped to a three-month low of 4.29 per cent in April. The high positive annual growth in the index of industrial production (IIP) in March 2021 came on back of a contraction of (-)0.9 per cent and (-)3.4 per cent in January and February 2021 respectively, according to the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Wednesday. This turnaround was led by recovery in the mining, manufacturing and electricity sectors.
Prices have continued to move up in Delhi's markets, wholesale and retail, on supply worries and spoilage due to record cold weather.
108 economists, social scientists said it was imperative that agencies like CSO and NSSO are not subject to political interference.
To enable widen the fiscal deficit beyond the permissible limit under the present legislation, the government may have to propose amendment to the FRBM Act in the Finance Bill.
While the tax-to-GDP ratio of 9.88 per cent has been assumed for FY21, the same as last year, when it touched a decadal low, for FY22 a ratio of 10.7 per cent has been assumed, an average of the last five years.
India's economy grew by 1.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020-21, restricting the full-year contraction to 7.3 per cent, official data showed on Monday. The fourth quarter growth was better than the 0.5 per cent expansion in the previous October-December quarter of 2020-21. The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 3 per cent in the corresponding January-March period of 2019-20, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO).
India's likely medium-term potential growth will almost certainly be markedly lower than that experienced in pre-pandemic years, warns Shankar Acharya, former chief economic advisor to the Government of India.
The economy has shown sharp resilience in the past and has also bounced back in good time. We could hence expect a similar trajectory next year, observes Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, CARE Ratings.
Slowdown in industrial production notwithstanding, a marginal increase in inflation raised the clamour for another round of rate cut by the Reserve Bank on April 4 to boost economic activity.
India's GDP estimates for 2020-21 show that the economy is expected to perform much better than earlier projections by different agencies, indicating a sustained V-shape post-lockdown recovery, experts said. The first Advance Estimates (AE) by the National Statistics Office (NSO) has projected a contraction of 7.7 per cent in the real GDP during 2020-21. This was better than the projections by certain international agencies like the IMF and World Bank.
Factory output as measured in terms of IIP had grown by 7.3 per cent in December 2017.
The Reserve Bank is likely to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) after the Budget.
© 2026 Rediff.com - Investor Information - Advertise with us - Disclaimer - Privacy Policy - Sitemap - Feedback - About us - Terms of use - Grievances