Cement manufacturers have hiked prices after a challenging Q1FY25, and Q2FY25 (so far) when general elections and seasonal factors cut down on construction activity. The August prices are currently around 3-6 per cent above July 2024 but may not be sustainable in the face of weak demand. H2FY25 may see realisation growth which, if it happens, would drive average operating profit/tonne improvements in H2FY25 over a muted H1FY25.
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After the second wave of the pandemic, general and health insurers have seen a fall in their outgo of Covid-related health claims. In the July-September quarter (Q2 of FY22), insurers settled a little over Rs 5,000 crore worth of Covid health claims. This is 35 per cent lower than the Rs 7,700 crore worth of claims they settled in Q1, sources said.
This will be the first full-year Budget of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance government since it came to power for a third consecutive term in July last year.
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'The biggest near-term risk to Indian equities is the outflow of investments to China as tactical trades by foreign investors.'
India's top listed companies reported their best-ever quarterly net profit of Rs 2.39 trillion in the September quarter of FY22, up 46.4 per cent year-on-year. The earnings were driven by a big surge in the profitability of banks, non-banking financial companies & insurance (BFSI), oil & gas, and metal & mining firms. The combined net profit of these three cyclical sectors were up 87 per cent YoY to a record high of Rs 1.53 trillion, up from Rs 82,000 crore a year ago and Rs 1.08 trillion in Q1FY22.
Mutual funds (MFs) managed a record Rs 66.2 trillion in assets during the July-September quarter, marking a 12.3 per cent increase over the previous three-month period - the highest quarterly jump in MF assets in at least five years. During the April-June period, the average assets under management (AUM) stood at Rs 59 trillion. The sharp rise in AUM, according to experts, is driven by a robust equity market rally and record inflows into equity schemes.
The country's largest private sector lender HDFC Bank on Saturday said it will grow its loan book slower than the industry in the current financial year (FY25). The move comes as the lender looks to bring down its elevated credit - deposit (CD) ratio to pre-merger levels. "We will bring down the CD ratio faster than what we had anticipated.
Although a one-off tax provision negatively impacted the bottom line, HDFC Asset Management Company (HDFC AMC) posted an excellent operational performance in Q2FY25. The equity quarterly average assets under management (QAAUM) growth was 14.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q). And, equity AUM market share rose 50 basis points (bps) year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to 12.9 per cent.
Shares of state-owned bank stocks were under pressure on Monday due to muted deposit and credit growth numbers reported by these lenders in the October-December quarter (Q3) of 2024-25 (FY25). The Nifty PSU Bank index was down 4 per cent, with Union Bank of India emerging as the biggest loser as its shares fell 7.5 per cent to close at Rs 114.7, followed by a 5.7 per cent drop in shares of Bank of Baroda (BoB) to Rs 228 and a 4.7 per cent slide in shares of Bank of India to Rs 99.8 on the National Stock Exchange.
Most global as well as domestic brokerages are upbeat on India's largest IT services provider, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), despite its performance during the December quarter of FY25, when it missed Street estimates. On the bourses, the TCS share price rallied as much as 6.44 per cent to hit an intraday high of Rs 4,296.80 apiece, before settling 5.67 per cent higher at Rs 4,265.55.
Marico may buck the industry trend with the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) major reporting strong growth and favourable commentary in a weak quarter for the industry. The company reported consolidated revenue growth of 8 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in Q2FY25. Domestic revenue growth was 8 per cent Y-o-Y with 5 per cent volume growth (4 per cent in Q1FY25).
From the 30-share Sensex pack, Infosys, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, HCL Technologies, Axis Bank, NTPC and HDFC Bank were among the laggards. In contrast, Maruti, IndusInd Bank, Adani Ports, ITC and UltraTech Cement defied broader market trends and ended in positive territory.
The cumulative rate hikes of 2.5 percentage points by the central bank since May 2022 negatively impacted headline inflation by 1.60 per cent, a paper by senior RBI staffers said on Monday. "Policy rate increases have anchored inflation expectations and modulated aggregate demand, generating disinflationary responses," the paper by Deputy Governor Michael Patra, Indranil Bhattacharyya, Joice John and Avnish Kumar, said.
However, in the first quarter when the country was under a lockdown, net financial savings rose to 21 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), according to the data released in the RBI's monthly bulletin.
Gland Pharma beat muted expectations for Q2FY25. There was increased Ebitda (Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) loss at Cenexi, the CRAM subsidiary. However, overall Ebitda margin was better than expectations at 21.1 per cent. But given two years of earnings decline in FY23 and FY24, the business may have bottomed and upper-teens EPS (earnings per share) growth looks possible over next two financial years.
Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai and Tata Motors reported a decline in wholesales in September as the companies curtailed dispatches to dealers to reduce inventory build-up amid a decline in demand. Maruti Suzuki India reported a 4 per cent dip in total domestic passenger vehicle wholesales last month to 144,962 units compared to 150,812 units in the year-ago month. The auto major said sales of mini segment cars, comprising Alto and S-Presso, grew marginally to 10,363 units against 10,351 units in September 2023.
From the Sensex pack, Tech Mahindra, HDFC Bank, Larsen & Toubro, ITC, Infosys, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Titan and HCL Technologies were among the gainers. Maruti Suzuki India, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, UltraTech Cement, Nestle India, Axis Bank and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) were among the laggards.
The Reserve Bank on Friday raised the inflation projection for current fiscal year to 4.8 per cent from 4.5 per cent with Governor Shaktikanta Das saying lingering food price pressures are likely to keep headline inflation elevated in the December quarter. Consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation increased sharply in September and October 2024 led by an unanticipated increase in food prices.
States are on track of fiscal consolidation with their total borrowings reaching Rs 5 trillion till October, which is 60 per cent of the projected borrowings of Rs 8.38 trillion till December 2024, according to data from official sources. Government officials said the lower-than-projected borrowings by states were a sign of prudent fiscal management by them. States announce their borrowing plans every quarter.
New supply of office space across seven major cities fell 4 per cent annually in the July-September quarter to 12.8 million square feet while gross leasing of prime workspace rose 17 per cent, according to Vestian. In its report released on Wednesday, real estate consultant Vestian said the fresh supply of office space in Hyderabad declined 25 per cent in the July-September quarter to 4.10 million square feet.
The market responded positively to the Q1 results of oil marketing companies (OMCs), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) despite numbers being weaker than consensus. BPCL's reported gross refining margin (GRM) was in line at $7.9 per barrel (bbl) in Q1FY25, which implies marketing margin stood at Rs 4.8 per litre. Standalone profit after tax or PAT at Rs 3,000 crore was down versus consensus due to under-recoveries in LPG business.
From the outcome of the general elections and then Union Budget to tepid corporate earnings in the September 2024 quarter (Q2-FY25), sticky inflation and Reserve Bank of India's stance on interest rates, extreme weather conditions, Indian stock markets have braved it all in calendar year 2024.
Despite gross domestic product (GDP) growth being lower-than-expected for the July-September quarter, the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may not cut the policy repo rate in the review meeting scheduled for next week due to high inflation in October, according to experts. "Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation breaching the upper limit of the RBI's tolerance band in October (6.2 per cent year-on-year) is not a favourable backdrop for the MPC to commence the easing cycle, even as the growth outcome disappointed the MPC's expectations," said Shreya Sodhani, regional economist at Barclays, who expects the policy repo rate to be kept unchanged in the December meeting.
Gold seems to be losing its glitter in India due to a rise in prices. Demand in Q2CY24 was 149.7 tonnes - a 5 per cent drop compared to 158.1 tonnes in the same period last year, according to a report by the World Gold Council (WGC). Demand by value in April-June 2024 stood at Rs 93,850 crore, up by 14 per cent compared to Rs 82,530 crore in the same period last year.
The July-September quarter (Q2) results for 2024-25 (FY25) from the largest listed consumer electrical solutions companies, Havells India and Polycab India, followed similar trends, demonstrating robust revenue growth while falling short of profitability expectations. Both companies witnessed overall growth in the 16-30 per cent range, but margins declined by 130-290 basis points (bps) year-on-year (Y-o-Y). Although brokerages are bullish on long-term prospects and have raised revenue projections, earnings forecasts have been revised downward due to margin pressures.
The November 5 US presidential elections, Federal Reserve interest rate decision, trading activity of foreign investors, and the upcoming quarterly earnings from domestic firms are the major triggers that would influence sentiments in the equity market this week, analysts said. In an eventful week ahead, a host of macroeconomic data announcements and global trends would also drive the markets, experts said. "The upcoming week is poised to be eventful on the global front.
'If weak indicators persist, there is a risk that India could slip into a prolonged slowdown similar to the one experienced between 2014 and 2019,' warns Debashis Basu.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty settled higher on Thursday, powered by a rally in banking and power stocks amid a largely firm trend in global markets. The stock markets mostly traded range-bound in the absence of any major trigger and persistent foreign capital outflows, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 144.31 points, or 0.18 per cent, to settle at 81,611.41.
Dalal Street had a roller coaster ride in 2024 from shattering record after record to facing heavy correction off-late but equity markets still rewarded investors with positive returns, driven by a surge in domestic fund flows and a resilient macro landscape. The first half of the year saw robust corporate earnings, a surge in domestic flows, and a resilient macro landscape, driving the Nifty to an all-time high of 26,277.35 in September 2024, according to Motilal Oswal Wealth Management.
The hospitality industry has around 212,000 rooms, with an industry size of about Rs 82,000 crore. The industry could grow at an annual rate of 10.5 per cent for the next three financial years, despite a quiet Q1FY25. The demand will be driven by domestic travellers, who will contribute roughly 50 per cent of the growth, while foreign tourists will account for 30 per cent.
Fresher hiring, which has been subdued as Indian information technology (IT) services firms scaled back their recruitment, is set for a turnaround. The IT sector's fresher hiring is expected to rise by 20-25 per cent for 2024-25 (FY25). Additionally, the global capability centres are projected to boost their fresher hiring by 40 per cent compared to last year, according to a TeamLease Digital analysis.
From the Sensex pack, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zones, Mahindra & Mahindra, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, State Bank of India, UltraTech Cement and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major gainers. In contrast, Tata Steel, Titan, Bajaj Finserv, JSW Steel, Bajaj Finance, Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Tata Motors and Tata Consultancy Services were among the laggards.
The ratio of market capitalisation to gross domestic product (GDP) in India remains elevated despite the recent correction in the equities markets. It was 147.5 per cent on December 3, 56 per cent higher than the 10-year average of 94 per cent. The current ratio is slightly lower than the all-time high ratio of 154 per cent at the end of September this year.
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Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's call for making lending rates affordable may not resonate anytime soon as banks still struggle with margin compression, and await clues from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on liquidity and rate action. Hinting that any lending rate cut was some time away, State Bank of India (SBI) managing director Vinay M Tonse said there was still some aggression in the market regarding deposit pricing.
Expenditure on new projects slowed down for the second quarter in a row amid an uncertain global environment and higher borrowing costs. There were new projects worth a cumulative Rs 3.26 trillion in the July-September period, according to data provided by project tracker Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). This figure is much less than Rs 4.39 trillion in the June quarter (Q1FY23) and Rs 8.46 trillion in the March quarter (Q4FY22).
'Developers are into profit-making. And there's not too much money in the affordable segment.' 'So, they don't do affordable housing.'
Markets to track inflation data, global trends, FII trading this week: Analysts New Delhi, Dec 8 (PTI) Investors' sentiments will be guided by a host of domestic and global macroeconomic data announcements this week, along with the trading activity of foreign investors and trends in world stocks, analysts said. Besides, the rupee-dollar trend and movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be crucial in dictating terms in the market, experts added. "The domestic stock market is likely to be shaped by a mix of global cues, domestic economic indicators, and the flow of investments from foreign and domestic institutional investors. Key factors like the rupee's exchange rate and crude oil prices will play a critical role in determining market trends. "Globally, geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to pose challenges. However, recent declines in the dollar index and US bond yields have created a more favourable environment for emerging markets like India," Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said. On the economic front, significant macroeconomic releases, including retail inflation and industrial production data from India as well as US core CPI, are expected to influence overall market sentiment, Gour added. Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 1,906.33 points or 2.38 per cent, and the NSE Nifty climbed 546.7 points or 2.26 per cent. "FIIs turning buyers in early December, in a total reversal of their sustained selling strategy during the last two months, has altered the market sentiments. The change in FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) strategy is getting reflected in stock price movements, particularly in large-cap banking stocks in which FIIs have been sellers," VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services, said. The release of US CPI inflation data will give some insights into the Fed's December meeting, an expert said. "The markets' attention is expected to turn towards macroeconomic indicators like IIP and CPI inflation. Additionally, the trend of FII inflows, following their recent buying spree, will remain a key focal point for market participants," Ajit Mishra - SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said. Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said this week will see significant economic data releases, including GDP numbers from Japan and the UK, along with China's CPI and India's CPI.
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