Crude oil prices could dip to the low $60s by the end of 2025 after rising to $80 a barrel in the last quarter (October-December) of 2024 - up nearly 10 per cent from current levels, suggest analysts at JP Morgan. The main players in West Asia, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have a strong incentive to keep the conflict contained, according to the JP Morgan report.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Bharti Airtel, Power Grid, Bajaj Finance, Nestle, Mahindra & Mahindra, Reliance Industries, Asian Paints, IndusInd Bank, Hindustan Unilever and HDFC Bank were the biggest gainers. Bajaj Finance climbed nearly 2 per cent after the company reported an 18 per cent increase in its consolidated net profit to Rs 4,308 crore for the December quarter.
OPEC's move to cut output has pushed up oil prices. From here it could go either way: oil could reach $100/barrel or an analysis of demand and supply might follow, say Abheek Barua & Bidisha Ganguly.
Foreign exchange reserves of the oil producers have increased by $1.1 trillion over the past decade.
International oil prices continue to be extremely volatile, falling on one day and rising thereafter, a top oil ministry official said explaining the reason behind no reduction in petrol and diesel prices despite softening in input cost, but could not say if the rates will be cut before Maharashtra elections. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures fell below $70 per barrel last week -- the first time since December 2021 -- but gained thereafter. Brent was trading at $74.58 per barrel on Thursday while West Texas Intermediate advanced to trade at $71.71.
Petroleum Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar on Monday hoped that international crude oil prices will ease in the near future and said India was in a comfortable position to sustain prices at around $50 a barrel.
The Planning Commission on Thursday said the surge in global oil prices should be passed on to customers, but favoured having some provisions to safeguard the interests of vulnerable sections of the society.
RIL is doing better than the regional benchmark due to its ability to process heavy and sour crude, coupled with the higher product prices of petroleum products in the overseas markets. The company's GRMs were $13.6 a barrel in Q2 FY08. Analysts at domestic brokerage houses are estimating the GRMs of Reliance Industries at $14-$15 a barrel compared with the regional benchmark Singapore refining margin of $8 a barrel last month.
Quarterly earnings of corporates, trading activity of foreign investors and inflation data are the key factors that are expected to drive the momentum in the equity markets this week, analysts said.
India's export of fuels like diesel to the European Union jumped 58 per cent in the first three quarters of 2024, with a bulk of them likely coming from refining discounted Russian oil, according to a monthly tracker report. The EU/G7 countries in December 2022 introduced a price cap and an embargo on the imports of Russian crude oil in a bid to cripple Kremlin's revenue and create a vacuum in its funding for the invasion of Ukraine.
India, the world's third largest oil consuming and importing nation, bought crude oil worth 49 billion euros from Russia in the third year of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, a global think tank said. India, which has traditionally sourced its oil from the Middle East, began importing a large volume of oil from Russia soon after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
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Moody's said it expects exposure to low oil prices to shave off 0.8 per cent from real GDP growth on average across oil exporting countries in 2016.
'Even now, investors are not bothered about the war but are more concerned whether it will remain localised or not.' 'In case things are contained, markets can stage a bounce back in the next few days.'
'Geopolitical stability could remove the crude oil risk premium.'
While OPEC has been unable to agree on an output freeze in an effort to support prices, Iraq was the latest Middle East producer to raise its exports quota
An analysis of year-wise movements of average global crude oil prices versus India's GDP reveals no inverse correlation, contrary to wide belief.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Bimal Jalan said on Friday that current crude oil price levels were not a cause for worry.
A sharp correction in stock prices, signs of rural recovery, and lower raw material costs have not been enough to change brokerages' cautious stance on the top-listed paint companies. Concerns over rising competition and weak demand continue to weigh on sentiment.
Foreign investors turned net sellers in October, withdrawing shares worth Rs 58,711 crore in the month so far owing to escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the strong performance of the Chinese market. The outflow came following a nine-month high investment of Rs 57,724 crore in September. Since June, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have consistently bought equities, after withdrawing Rs 34,252 crore in April-May.
India, which imports 73 per cent of its oil needs, has been hit by the surge in international crude oil prices that touched $96 a barrel last week. State-run fuel retailers Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum are currently losing Rs 240 crore (Rs 2.4 billion) per day on selling petrol, diesel, domestic LPG and PDS kerosene as the government has not allowed them to raise retail prices in line with the surge in cost.
Crude oil prices in July last year rose to a historic high of $147 and then plumetted to four-year low of $37 per barrel, all in just four months time. The minister said the global financial crisis which was the primary reason for the slump in international oil prices, has forced India to revise growth targets.
Dan Denning analyses the correlation between the soaring oil prices and banking rates in the Western world.
However, copious oil supplies amid growing global output and slowing Chinese oil consumption will put India in a better bargaining position with Gulf suppliers.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Adani Ports jumped over 5 per cent. NTPC, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv, Zomato, Bajaj Finance, Tata Motors, State Bank of India, IndusInd Bank and Maruti were among the other big gainers. From the 30-share pack, Hindustan Unilever, Titan, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys and UltraTech Cement were the other laggards.
Unless there is a sharp uptick in oil prices, Fed may push back rate hike
Economics and politics both have major roles in determining oil prices.
The Planning Commission on Tuesday made a case for increasing prices of petrol and diesel arguing that it was not a good idea to check inflation by keeping prices of petroleum products low.
Foreign investors turned net sellers in October, offloading shares worth Rs 27,142 crore in just the first three days of October due to intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran, a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and improved performance of Chinese markets. The outflow came after FPI investment reached a nine-month high of Rs 57,724 crore in September. Since June, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have consistently bought equities after withdrawing Rs 34,252 crore in April-May.
What was in the world of reasonable oil prices a sunny economy slips into gloom and doom.
Noting that the country could 'well experience the effects of an oil-price shock,' Deloitte said that political instability in West Asia and a payment crisis with Iran are causes for concern.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday said that global crude oil prices, which are nearing the $100 a barrel mark, could impact inflation in India. "High and volatile crude oil prices in the international markets pose a major risk to domestic price stability," the RBI said in its report on 'Trend and Progress in Banking'.
Crude oil has fallen about 40 per cent since mid June and the price on Monday touched its lowest level since mid 2009 before US oil prices posted their biggest one-day gain in two years overnight.
Soft oil prices are expected to persist in 2015 and will be accompanied by significant real income shifts from oil-exporting to oil-importing countries.
From February to mid-March, oil prices receded rapidly.
The spurt in rates, caused by the rally in international oil prices, has led to the oil ministry asking the finance ministry for a cut in excise duty in the Union Budget 2018-19, to be presented in Parliament next week.
High crude oil prices, widening current account gap and political uncertainty may keep the rupee weak in the near term.
The last time these two indexes recorded a negative performance on a calendar year basis was in CY19.
