Among the Sensex firms, ICICI Bank and SBI led the index with the maximum gains of 4.68 per cent and 3.99 per cent, respectively. Other major gainers were Larsen & Toubro, Kotak Mahindra Bank and HDFC Bank. On the other hand, Wipro and Tata Motors defied the trend and traded in negative.
Prices may go up because of higher energy costs, caused by the rise in shipping charges, with commercial vessels taking a longer route to avoid the troubled Red Sea region, the finance ministry said on Monday. Iran-backed Houthi rebels of Yemen are repeatedly attacking ships in the Red Sea. While the global economy is grappling with challenges such as sticky inflation, sluggish growth, and mounting fiscal pressure, India's external sector could face "potential risks" due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, according to the finance ministry's report on the review of the Indian economy.
With the rains at unprecedented low in August, kiranas are thinking twice before stocking up on goods. "With August 2023 rain shortfall at almost a 100-year low, we are seeing kiranas stocking up very carefully," Akshay D'Souza, chief of growth and insights at Bizom. He added, "As we look ahead, it does seem that the impact of rains in September will be critical to the sowing season.
There is no payment problem for Russian crude, Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on Wednesday. He said there is no proposal to cut retail fuel prices at the moment. Addressing a press conference, the minister said India enjoys a buyers' position and foreign suppliers are approaching Indian companies with offers to sell oil.
The Indian Navy, which regards itself as the 'net security provider' in the Indian Ocean Region, has also stepped up to the plate, with a warship stationed at all times off the Gulf of Aden for counter-piracy tasks. 91 Indian warships have been deployed in the region since 2008, patrolling high risk areas where piracy was rampant.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded from early lows to settle higher on Wednesday following buying in Reliance Industries, Larsen & Toubro and ITC and positive trends in Asian and European markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose by 173.22 points or 0.26 per cent to settle at 66,118.69. The index opened lower and fell further to a low of 65,549.96 in morning trade.
Consumption-related stocks, such as hotels, and quick service restaurants (QSRs), have been hitting the ball out of the park ahead. On the other hand, the Miss World Pageant scheduled for later this year in New Delhi, too, could provide some tailwind to these stocks, especially hotels and aviation. However, analysts suggest investors put their best foot forward and buy these counters only on a decline given the recent rally and economic headwinds.
'We suggest an equity strategy of 5% to 10% exposure to cash, 5% to Gold ETF, close to 50% to Sensex/Nifty/large mid-cap stocks.'
Irregular rainfall and a pick-up in commodity costs are expected to weigh on the demand and margins of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies. Most companies reported a sharp expansion in gross margins in the April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), given the lower prices of key raw materials and earlier price hikes. Furthermore, there were expectations that cost savings being passed on could reflect in volume growth going forward. However, these hopes could be dashed if demand recovery, especially in the rural segment, stalls, and gains on the raw material front start to recede.
Quarterly earnings from IT majors Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide the movement in the equity market this week, analysts said. Movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee will also influence trading in the markets. "All eyes will be on the beginning of corporate performance for the second quarter of the current fiscal year. TCS is slated to unveil its Q2 results on October 11, with HCL Technologies and Infosys following suit on October 12.
The ongoing second quarter earnings, movement of oil benchmark Brent crude and the uncertainty in the Middle East would dictate terms in the domestic markets this week, analysts said. Furthermore, the activities of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) will also influence trading in the markets. "A slew of earnings reports from heavyweights expected this week will significantly impact market direction.
The stock of Godrej Consumer Products Limited (GCPL) fell about 3.7 per cent in trade after its Q3FY24 earnings disappointed brokerages and led to downgrades. Further, the stock, after a 15 per cent run-up over the past month prior to Monday's correction, had already factored in the upside from the business front. Its peer in the consumer space, Marico, too, saw a 4 per cent drop in its stock price.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and its partners, such as Russia, collectively termed Opec+, have decided to cut crude oil production by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) from October onwards, at a meeting on Monday. In a step that may increase prices in India, the group has decided to reduce output quotas for October, after a fall in global oil demand outlook. The cut in output is equal to 0.1 per cent of global supply.
Major General S C N Jatar, who passed into the ages on Monday night, thwarted anti-national forces at the peak of the Assam agitation. Colonel Anil A Athale (retd) salutes this officer and gentleman.
The sharp rally in the midcap stocks has made valuations expensive, and there is room for a correction, wrote Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies in his latest note to investors, GREED & fear. The midcap index, Wood said, now trades at 24.1x 12-month forward earnings compared with 18.7x for the Nifty. Rising crude oil prices, he believes, are another worry for India, which imports nearly 80 per cent of its annual crude oil requirement.
In a recent note, the global brokerage firm said India now commands a weight of 19 per cent in the above-mentioned portfolio as compared to 18.2 per cent in September 2023. India, it said, is a large liquid market and remains a counter-weight to North Asia if a slowdown in the West occurs and China's recovery disappoints.
Margins for the oil refining and retailing sector have moved off their peaks, and the average integrated margins (refining plus marketing) for oil marketing companies (OMCs) have normalised. The ascent in crude oil prices, combined with static retail prices, has depressed marketing margins for diesel and petrol. However, the fall in marketing margins has been offset by increased gross refining margins (GRMs).
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday projected retail inflation to ease to 5.3 per cent in next fiscal from 6.5 per cent this year on assumptions of lower imported inflation, even though core inflation remains sticky. The RBI's inflation outlook for current fiscal has improved from 6.8 per cent projected earlier, to 6.5 per cent, on the back of steeper than expected decline in vegetable prices and Indian basket of crude at $95 a barrel. "Looking ahead, while inflation is expected to moderate in 2023-24, it is likely to rule above the 4 per cent target.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global factors and trading activity of foreign investors would be the key triggers for the domestic stock markets this week, analysts said. Last week, the benchmark indices joined the broader market's party despite a host of negative global cues. In the broader market, the BSE midcap and smallcap gauges hit their all-time highs on Friday.
After a spike in crude oil and gas prices in October following the Hamas terror attack, prices eased down 9 per cent month-on-month in November. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and Opec+ agreed to a further voluntary production cut in January-March 2024 to try and support global crude prices. The best guess here is that crude prices (currently at $75/barrel, or bbl) will not likely cross significantly above $80, and gas prices are also likely to remain subdued unless there's a further escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
'The market should maintain optimism on the back of range-bound oil prices, a robust fiscal balance sheet, a better-than-expected monsoon, and moderating inflation.'
The Indian equity market valuation has been moving in tandem with the US 10-year treasury yield. While the benchmark US bond yield has witnessed a nearly 70 basis point decline since the end of October this year, dropping from 4.93 per cent to 4.23 per cent on Friday, the Sensex earnings yield has slipped by nearly 45 basis points - from 4.5 per cent to 4.05 per cent. Previously, Indian equities' earnings yields rose in sync with the US bond yields.
India, the official said, has a long history of relations with Russia. They have interests with Russia that go back many, many decades.
'A weak monsoon always spells disaster. But it's too early to have a pessimistic view.'
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, global market trends and trading activity of foreign investors are the major factors that would dictate terms in the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Tuesday on account of Ganesh Chaturthi. From the global front, interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and Bank of Japan would also influence market trends.
Brent hit a session high of $114.69 a barrel, its loftiest since September last year.
By creating mayhem, Hamas aims to force the Arab States to give up their plans of reconciliation with Israel, explains Colonel Anil A Athale.
Industrial production and inflation data, quarterly earnings from IT majors and global trends would drive the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Moreover, foreign fund trading activity, movement of the rupee and global crude oil prices would also dictate terms in the market, they added. Equity markets would remain closed on Friday for 'Dr Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti'.
Investors' wealth fell by Rs 2.89 lakh crore in two days of market fall, with the BSE Sensex tumbling 796 points on Wednesday, amid weak global market trends ahead of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Fresh foreign fund outflows and caution ahead of a host of interest rate decisions from global central banks also added to the overall bearish trend. Besides, the US Fed meeting, the BoE (Bank of England) and the BoJ (Bank of Japan) are also scheduled to meet this week.
Titan, IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank, State Bank of India, Power Grid, NTPC and Tata Motors were among the among the major gainers. Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Nestle, JSW Steel, Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra and Maruti were the major laggards.
The Reserve Bank on Thursday marginally revised upwards the economic growth projection for the current fiscal to 6.5 per cent, from its earlier estimate of 6.4 per cent. Unveiling the first bi-monthly monetary policy of 2023-24 fiscal, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023-24 is expected at 7.8 per cent.
Higher for longer' may be the narrative in the developed markets, but interest rates might not stay high for very long in India, with a section of the market expecting rate cuts to begin this year. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 6.5 per cent in the April review - after hiking the policy repo rate in six previous meetings. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das emphasised that the pause was only for the April policy and that the central bank was ready to act if the situation demanded.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have pulled out over Rs 10,000 crore from Indian equities in the first three weeks of September, primarily due to rising US interest rates, recessionary fears, and overvalued domestic stocks. Before the outflow, FPIs were incessantly buying Indian equities in the last six months from March to August and brought in Rs 1.74 lakh crore during the period. Mayank Mehra, smallcase, manager and principal partner at Craving Alpha,believes that strong economic growth prospects, attractive valuations, and government reforms could support foreign investment flows in the next month.
'We are in a sweet spot.' 'Equity, on a standalone basis, will continue to remain the asset class to stay invested in.'
Rising crude oil prices and muted passenger traffic in the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24) have raised concerns about the profitability of listed aviation players. These two concerns have caused the stock of InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo), the largest player in the sector, to slip by 11 per cent since its highs at the end of July. Nuvama Research expects yields to cool down in the near term due to seasonality, rising crude oil prices, and higher capacity.
Equity markets rallied after softer-than-expected inflation data in the US and UK rekindled hopes of the end of the rate-hiking cycle by major central banks. The soft inflation reading drove down bond yields and the US dollar, whetting the appetite for risky assets. The 10-year US bond yield fell below 4.5 per cent after topping 5 per cent less than a month ago.
Despite the uncertainties created by rising bond yields and oil prices, fund managers have been proactively deploying fresh flows into the equity market. The cash available with equity fund managers, which has remained lower at around 5 per cent in the past few months, hit a 16-month low of 4.8 per cent in September, shows a Motilal Oswal Financial Services report. Cash holdings in equity schemes had topped 6 per cent in February amid subdued equity market sentiment.
'Higher inflows into these securities should lead to lower borrowing costs for the government.'
tailwinds of a remarkable year and handsome investor returns, Indian equities are set for an eventful journey in 2024, with a slew of local and global cues -- varying from interest rates to Lok Sabha polls to geopolitical happenings. Analysts are of the view that the bull run in the domestic equity market will continue, and over the next 3-6 months, the benchmark indices -- Sensex and Nifty -- could climb up to 7 per cent. In 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent, and the NSE Nifty climbed 3,626.1 points or 20 per cent.
Jet fuel (ATF) price on Wednesday was hiked by 4 per cent in line with firming international oil prices but petrol and diesel rates remained on freeze for a record 10th month in running. Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) price was increased by Rs 4,218 per kilolitre, or 3.9 per cent, to Rs 1,12,356.77 per kl in the national capital, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. The increase follows three rounds of reduction since November.
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