Moody's Investors Service on Thursday said the credit downturn arising out of COVID-19 will be short-lived but most economies will not return to pre-pandemic activity levels until 2022. In the year since the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020, the virus has disrupted the global economy and triggered a credit downturn accompanied by a spike in bond defaults. "The credit challenges arising from COVID-19 have been substantial, but the credit downturn likely will be relatively short-lived. "Risks remain more significant for the sectors most vulnerable to restrictions on their normal activities," Moody's said in a global report in coronavirus. Stating that most economies will not return to pre-pandemic activity levels until 2022, Moody's said it expects a slow and bumpy global recovery and uncertainty around the macroeconomic outlook remains much higher than usual.
Moody's said the negative outlook reflected uncertainty over the refinancing of Macrotech's (formerly Lodha Developers) upcoming debt maturities.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday projected India's growth at zero per cent for the current fiscal and said the negative outlook on sovereign rating reflects increasing risks that GDP growth will remain significantly lower than in the past. The outlook also partly shows weaker policy effectiveness to address economic and institutional issues, it noted in the update to its November 2019 rating forecast.
The government's second round of stimulus will spur consumer spending in the near term but support to economic growth will be minimal, Moody's Investors Service said.
Stating that the economic costs of shutdown of the global economy are accumulating rapidly, Moody's projected that all G-20 advanced economies would contract by 5.8 per cent in 2020.
Moody's cited a likely rise in the bank's non-performing assets in the near future as one of the reasons for the downgrade.
India's top fuel retailers IOC, BPCL and HPCL together lost around $2.25 billion (Rs 19,000 crore) in revenue for keeping petrol and diesel prices on hold during elections in five states, including Uttar Pradesh, Moody's Investors Services said on Thursday. State fuel retailers did not revise petrol and diesel rates for a record 137 days despite prices of crude oil (raw material for producing fuel) rising to $120 per barrel compared to around $82 in early November when the hiatus began. "Based on current market prices, the oil marketing companies are currently incurring a revenue loss of around $25 (over Rs 1,900) per barrel and $24 per barrel on sale of petrol and diesel, respectively," Moody's said in a report.
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Moody's on Thursday raised India's GDP forecast for the calendar year 2020 upwards to -8.9 per cent contraction from -9.6 per cent contraction forecast earlier. Similarly, India's GDP forecast for the calendar year 2021 has been revised upwards to 8.6 per cent from 8.1 per cent projected earlier. The report released by Moody's Investors Service attributed the reason behind better growth to the falling of coronavirus cases in the country.
For 2021-22, it projected the economy to clock a growth of 10.6 per cent.
Moody's expects growth in G-20 advanced countries to be stable at 1.8 per cent for 2016.
While foreign currency rating was retained at Baa2 -- the second-lowest investment grade score -- Moody's also projected a fiscal deficit of 3.7 per cent of gross domestic product in the year through March 2020, a breach of the government's target of 3.3 per cent.
India's economy is likely to grow by 12 per cent in 2021 following a 7.1 per cent contraction last year, as near-term prospects have turned more favourable, Moody's Analytics said. A stronger than expected December quarter GDP growth of 0.4 per cent following a 7.5 per cent contraction in the previous three months has turned India's near-term prospects more favourable, it said. Domestic and external demand has been on the mend since the easing of restrictions, which has led to improved manufacturing output in recent months.
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Fitch Ratings on Monday said India's pace of debt reduction is gradual, leaving room for a downside risk to sovereign rating in the eventuality of a significant economic shock. However, the rating agency expressed confidence in India's ability to stick to its medium-term fiscal framework, which aims to reduce debt and bring it on a downward trajectory over time.
Moody's assumes that the RBI will continue to pursue price and financial stability and implement policies towards these goals.
Moody's in its report said power generators were unlikely to benefit meaningfully.
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The moves on basic income for farmers - Rs 6,000 per person in three installments per annum - and subsidised agricultural loans are likely to boost the rural economy through consumption in the near-term, but will have a fiscal cost, it noted.
Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday lowered India's GDP growth forecast for the 2020 calendar year to 5.3 per cent, on coronavirus implications on the economy. Moody's had in February projected a 5.4 per cent real GDP growth for India in 2020. This too was a downgrade from 6.6 per cent earlier forecast.
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Moody's Investors Service on Friday slashed its estimate of India's GDP growth during the 2020 calendar year to 2.5 per cent from an earlier estimate of 5.3 per cent, on account of the rising economic cost of the coronavirus pandemic.
Some banks called the Moody's move backward looking, arbitrary and unwarranted.
Bharti recorded $5 billion liability for past-due AGR fees, but is still completing its self-assessment to determine the final amount.
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Veteran coach Tom Moody on Thursday said the players' performance in highly-competitive leagues like IPL and ILT20 will have an added heft this time because of the impact it can have on the team selection ahead of the T20 World Cup.
"The new structure will substantially reduce taxes on the middle class and leave more money in their hands, boosting household consumption, savings and investment," Sitharaman said presenting what was dubbed as 'reformist' budget for the next fiscal in Lok Sabha.
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Moody's has a 'Baa3' rating for India, with a positive outlook.
Global rating agency Moody's on Monday said HDFC Bank's multiple digital outages are credit negative as such recurring incidents could lead to moderation in revenue and flight of customers to other banks. The recurring outages also risk hurting the bank's brand perception among a growing and increasingly digitally savvy customer base, and increases the potential that clients switch to other banks, which would lead to a reduction in revenue and low-cost retail funding, Moody's said in a statement.
The senior Congress leader also said over 90 per cent of jobs are in the SME sector which requires an urgent push to boost the economy.
India's economy contracted by 7.3 per cent in fiscal 2020-21. The pandemic, it said, will leave new economic scars and deepen pre-pandemic constraints.
For 2020 calendar year, it reduced the estimate by a similar measure to 6.7 per cent.
Global rating agency Moody's on Friday said that India's ratings may be downgraded if the government debt rises substantially, due to a lack of medium-term reforms and delay in privatization among others.
It expects Indian economy to grow by 6 per cent in 2013-14.
"The fundamental credit outlook for the Indian banking system remains negative, reflecting the currently challenging economic conditions and the rising level of problem loans," Moody's said in a report.
Former India pacer S Sreesanth on Friday backed Hardik Pandya's selection in the T20 World Cup squad, saying the all-rounder's presence alongside Virat Kohli will make for a "great combination" when chasing tricky totals.
Moody's said together, proceeds from these transactions will result in a $ 16 billion reduction in RIL's net debt.
PSBs dominate India's banking system, meaning any failure could jeopardise financial stability, as such, we expect government support will remain forthcoming, said Moody's.
Moody's Investors Service has changed the outlook for the long-term foreign currency deposit ratings of a number of Indian banks -- currently rated Ba2 -- from 'negative' to 'stable' for India.
