'What signal would we be sending -- that we don't stand by our friends?'
China's deteriorating economy is a serious concern. Xi Jinping and China's new premier will have a difficult task ahead of them after the 20th party congress, notes Jayadeva Ranade, the retired senior RA&W officer and China expert.
There are very few authoritative and knowledgeable Indian writers who have a deep insight into Chinese strategic thinking and the internal dynamics within China. That is why China Unveiled: Insights into Chinese Strategic Thinking by Jayadeva Ranade, a former additional secretary in India's Cabinet Secretariat, makes for compelling reading, says Nitin Gokhale
The Chinese authorities have been rapidly building defence infrastructure along the Line of Actual Control, indicating that they are preparing for a long period of tension with India, points out Jayadeva Ranade, the former senior RA&W officer and China expert.
Xi Jinping's recent actions in South Asia have amply demonstrated the disastrous impact of China's embrace, observes Jayadeva Ranade, the retired senior RA&W officer and China expert.
Beijing will be intently watching Washington's response for any hint of weakness. Xi Jinping, who feels China has a limited window of strategic opportunity, will be emboldened to take additional initiatives in the Indo-Pacific and specifically against India and Taiwan, warns Jayadeva Ranade, the former senior RA&W officer and China expert.
Key to China's decision regarding Taiwan will be its leadership's assessment whether the US will come to Taiwan's defence, explains Jayadeva Ranade, the former senior RA&W officer and China expert.
Wang Junzheng, Tibet's new Communist party boss, is on a number of sanctions lists by the US, Britain, the EU and Canada, for his tough role in Xinjiang, aimed at China's Uyghur ethnic minority, observes Jayadeva Ranade, the retired senior RA&W officer and distinguished China expert.
The military preparations underway show that the PLA may undertake operations this summer to achieve whatever objectives they could not achieve last May, asserts Jayadeva Ranade, the distinguished China expert and retired RA&W officer.
National security, consolidation of border defences and border security highlights China's Tibet policy, points out Jayadeva Ranade, the former senior RA&W officer and China expert.
Protests at this time when efforts are underway to strengthen the PLA and keep morale high would be worrying for the military leadership, observes Jayadeva Ranade, the retired senior RA&W officer and distinguished China expert.
A new military rank system had been introduced for the PLA, but all soldiers must always obey the Communist party, reveals Jayadeva Ranade, the distinguished China expert and retired RA&W officer.
A visit to Tibet appears to have become the new touchstone for expressing fealty to Xi Jinping, observes Jayadeva Ranade, the retired senior RA&W officer and distinguished China expert.
Two elderly Chinese aerospace experts are hospitalised after a violent attack by a 'Princeling', states Jayadeva Ranade, the distinguished China expert and retired RA&W officer, highlighting the power the 'Princelings' ironically hold in the Communist People's Republic.
Wang Yang and Xi Jinping's visits signal the beginning of a major Chinese push to bring about a transformation of Tibet, observes Jayadeva Ranade, the distinguished China expert and retired RA&W officer.
India, Taiwan and countries with large numbers of Tibetans, Uyghurs and overseas Chinese will be prominent among those that witness elevated United Front activity, notes Jayadeva Ranade, the distinguished China expert and retired RAW officer.
China plans to divert about 200 billion cubic metres of water annually from the Brahmaputra at its highest point, namely the Great Bend, where it turns into India. China's Brahmaputra dam will severely impact India, warns former senior RA&W officer and China expert Jayadeva Ranade.
With his eye on next year's Party Congress, Xi Jinping is using the CCP's centenary celebrations to publicise the benefits for China from its leadership, and boost his image and contribution to China's rise, observes Jayadeva Ranade, the distinguished China expert and retired RA&W officer.
With tensions between China and Taiwan rapidly increasing, the tone of China's official media has also become progressively more strident, observes former senior RA&W officer and China expert Jayadeva Ranade.
It will be interesting to see whether India-China border tensions figure during the deliberations of PLA deputies to the NPC and CPPCC, notes Jayadeva Ranade, the distinguished China expert and retired RA&W officer.
Such criticism by China of a foreign government official, particularly of a major power like the US, is very unusual. It is clear that China will come under increasing pressure certainly till the US presidential elections are held, observes former senior RA&W officer and China expert Jayadeva Ranade.
'Listing Masood Azhar as a 'global terrorist' was done with Islamabad and Imran Khan's concurrence.' 'It was not prompted by the so-called 'Wuhan spirit'.' 'The relationship between the two 'iron brothers' has not been dented,' points out former RA&W officer and China expert Jayadeva Ranade.
China has been trying to build lobbies of influence and mould public opinion in India since at least 2017, and large sums have been invested in the effort, reveals former RA&W officer Jayadeva Ranade.
China's closer and enhanced relationship with Pakistan is putting considerable strain in India-China relations, says former RA&W officer Jayadeva Ranade.
Statements emanating from the recent Chinese Communist party congress suggest potentially increasing pressure on India with regard to the Dalai Lama and the Central Tibetan Administration in Dharamsala, notes former RAW officer Jayadeva Ranade.
'The military officers at China's National People's Congress reflect Xi Jinping's preference for elevating politically reliable, younger, officers with good professional qualifications,' says former RAW officer and China expert Jayadeva Ranade.
'A hotline between the Chinese and Indian military establishments is essential if the possibility of conflict is to be minimised.' 'When relations are uneasy, even minor incidents can spiral out of control,' warns former senior RA&W officer Jayadeva Ranade.
'The meeting marks the first tentative step in the effort to understand whether the two largest Asian nations can co-exist peacefully while realising their aspirations.' 'Caution and watchful wariness will dominate the effort of both sides,' says Jayadeva Ranade, former RA&W officer and China expert.
India needs to take note of China's assertiveness in implementing its national security law as also its recently exhibited sensitivity to criticism of Xi Jinping by the Indian media, says former senior R&AW officer and China expert Jayadeva Ranade.
The Chinese Communist party has not closed its door of contacts and negotiation with the Dalai Lama, a senior Communist leader wrote recently. Former RA&W officer and China expert Jayadeva Ranade explains what the thinking on Tibet is likely in Beijing.
To rise quickly in the PLA's hierarchy, you need to be close to Xi Jinping. Retired RA&W officer Jayadeva Ranade on the changes in China's military leadership.
Samdong Rimpoche's visit to China materialised against the backdrop of strained India-China relations consequent to the face-off between Indian and Chinese troops at Doklam, says former RAW officer Jayadeva Ranade.
Important for Chinese President Xi Jinping will be Zhao's discussions on the issues of Tibet and the Dalai Lama and his assessment of the likely results of India's coming national elections, notes former senior RA&W officer and China expert Jayadeva Ranade.
Chinese observers believe the Sino-US relationship will be impacted by issues in North Korea, Japan, India, Ukraine and Iran and that conflicts with these 'third parties' will without exception ultimately become conflicts between China and the US, points out former RA&W officer Jayadeva Ranade.
'Chinese pressure on Taiwan is unlikely to ease till Beijing feels that stability is being restored in the Sino-US relationship,' says former RAW officer Jayadeva Ranade.
Donald Trump is believed to be the first US President or President-elect to have spoken to a Taiwanese leader since 1979, when the US severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan after its recognition of the People's Republic of China, points out former RA&W officer Jayadeva Ranade.
'Gwadar has the potential to facilitate PLAN's operations in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean.' 'Reports of China setting up electronic eavesdropping posts at Gwadar to monitor US and Indian naval activity and shipping traffic through the Straits of Hormuz and the Arabian Sea lend credence to this,' says former RA&W officer Jayadeva Ranade.
'The title of 'core' of the leadership gives Xi Jinping greater political authority at a time when China is beset by various problems as well as a slowdown in economic growth,' points out former RA&W officer Jayadeva Ranade.
'Information about the Dalai Lama's heath is normally not shared with the public. Its release on this occasion implicitly underscores the message that the window of opportunity for Beijing to recommence the dialogue with the Dalai Lama -- an advocate of non-violence -- to resolve the contentious Tibetan issue is limited.' says Jayadeva Ranade.
'China's actions at the NSG will certainly taint India-China bilateral relations and enhance suspicion of China's intentions. A fresh clear-eyed and objective evaluation of the India-China relationship is necessary, especially as India tries to correct adversely balanced bilateral economic ties and the two countries engage over the long-term,' says Jayadeva Ranade.
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