India possesses approximately 100 million barrels of commercial crude oil stocks, capable of covering 40-45 days of its requirements if flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, according to Kpler.
Of the 1.32 trillion capex target for FY26, State-run oil firms have already spent 1.07 trillion in the first 10 months.
Replacing over a third of India's oil imports at competitive rates is going to be a challenge, said traders from State refiners, even though some progress was made in the last two months.
US President Donald Trump asserted that the trade deal with India remains intact despite a Supreme Court ruling against his tariffs, while also claiming he used tariffs to stop a war between India and Pakistan.
The Kremlin has stated that India is free to purchase oil from any country, dismissing claims that India agreed to reduce Russian oil imports. Russia maintains that energy trade with India benefits both nations and contributes to international energy market stability.
India will maintain multiple sources for crude oil purchases and diversify them to ensure stability in the supply chain with national interests remaining the "guiding factor" for the procurement, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said.
The Congress attacked the Modi government, saying it now seems to be routine that India learns about its government's actions only from Trump or his appointees.
India will restrict crude oil purchases from Russia as part of an agreement reached with the US in exchange for lower trade tariffs, sources said, adding imports will continue for now by refiners such as Nayara Energy, which have no other alternative source. US President Donald Trump announced overnight that the United States will cut the reciprocal tariff on imports of Indian goods to 18 per cent from 25 per cent under a broader bilateral understanding.
'The immediate impact for India will be very minimal as the share of Venezuela in our total overseas production is very low.'
The government has no say in where the country's refiners source oil from because these are commercial transactions.
The trade relationship between India and the United States has been strained by the imposition of 25% tariff by the US on Indian goods.
After a three-month slowdown, India's oil imports (already landed) from Russia bounced back in the first 15 days of October to 1.8 million barrels per day.
India's decision to import LPG from the US helps it to diversify sources as it reduces almost full reliance on West Asian countries for supply of the country's primary cooking fuel.
The enduring relationship between the two countries have survived the disintegration of the erstwhile USSR in 1991, the end of the Cold War and the regime change in both countries, points out Rup Narayan Das.
A US official has stated that India's continued purchase of Russian oil is a point of contention in the relationship between the two countries, as it helps fund Russia's war efforts in Ukraine.
China's ruling Communist Party is holding its annual leadership conclave to discuss the new five-year plan, the impact of US President Donald Trump's tariff war, and the ongoing anti-corruption crackdown in the military.
India responds to US President Trump's claim that PM Modi assured him of halting Russian oil imports, stating it is diversifying energy sources to meet market conditions and safeguard consumer interests.
'Trump does have a master plan in mind to put pressure on India with the additional tariff of 25 per cent to get Modi to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to freeze the Ukraine war.' 'It has not worked so far. By end-September only we'll know for sure the future trajectory of India's oil purchases from Russia,' observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'If the near-term economic pain is absorbed more by those who have the ability and the financial strength to do so, then small and medium enterprises in downstream industries will emerge stronger from the trade imbroglio.'
'While the President has been critical of India, he has gone out of his way to compliment PM Modi. They have an incredible relationship.'
'...it should not delude itself into thinking that India's security or its great-power ambitions will be advanced by those partnerships.'
'Instead, what India should focus on is on riding out the next three-and-a-half years of Trump's presidency with minimal damage to itself.'
If India caves in to US pressure as Trump hopes it will, he will further try to blackmail it into submission, points out Ramesh Menon.
'India has intentionally taken advantage of the war in Ukraine to dramatically increase its purchases of Russian crude, when there are roughly 40 major crude providers that could satisfy Indian demand.'
The United States action of levying 25 per cent additional tariff on Indian goods is 'unfair, unjustified and unreasonable', India said on Wednesday in a firm reaction, signalling increasing tensions between the two strategic partners over New Delhi's energy ties with Moscow.
United States President Donald Trump has said India is 'very close' to China in terms of its purchases of Russian oil and will pay tariffs of 50 per cent as he indicated that 'you are going to see so much secondary sanctions'.
Indian refiners are likely to import 2-2.2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil in June - the highest in the last two years and more than the total volumes bought from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, preliminary data by global trade analytics firm Kpler showed.
India's net oil import bill could widen to $101-104 billion in current fiscal from $96.1 billion in 2023-24 and any escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict could impart an upward pressure on the value of imports, ICRA said on Tuesday. The domestic rating agency said based on its analysis, lower value of Russian oil imports is estimated to have led to savings of $7.9 billion in 11 months (April-February) of 2023-24, up from $5.1 billion in 2022-23.
Ongoing strategic investment into assets abroad, alongside gas purchases being made by India, will soon allow the country to access as much gas as it needs, Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on the sidelines of India Energy Week (IEW 2025).
The depreciation of Indian rupee against the US dollar is expected to push the country's import bill by about $15 billion, think tank GTRI said on Thursday. Compared to December last year, the Indian Rupee (INR) has depreciated 2.34 per cent against the US dollar, moving from Rs 83.25 to Rs 85.20, while the Chinese Yuan has weakened by 0.06 per cent, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said.
India on Tuesday opened its largest oil and gas bid round, offering 25 blocks covering 1.91 lakh square kilometers mostly in offshore area, as the government looks to boost domestic production to cut imports and help energy security. Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri launched the 10th bid round under the Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP) at the India Energy Week (IEW) in Mumbai.
However, copious oil supplies amid growing global output and slowing Chinese oil consumption will put India in a better bargaining position with Gulf suppliers.
'The US is strongly placed to expand its crude supplies to India.'
State-owned fuel retailers are losing close to Rs 3 per litre on selling diesel while the profit on petrol has trimmed due to recent firming up in international oil prices, industry officials said detailing reasons for continuing to hold retail prices. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), who control roughly 90 per cent of India's fuel market, 'voluntarily' have not changed petrol, diesel and cooking gas (LPG) prices for almost two years now, resulting in losses when input cost was higher and profits when raw material prices were lower.
'Retail investors, who had not seen such a massive correction in the SMID universe since COVID-19, are witnessing something like this for the first time. Panic profit booking may continue.'
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest monthly oil market report projected the world's third-biggest energy consumer to add 0.39 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil demand in 2022. India's oil demand rose from 4.51 million barrels per day in 2020 to 4.76 million bpd in 2021, recording a 5.61 per cent growth.
India's biggest oil and gas bid round attracted four bidders that included state-owned ONGC and OIL and private sector Vedanta Ltd, with most blocks getting just two bids, according to Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH). The OALP-IX bid round, where 28 blocks or areas spread over 1.36 lakh square kilometre were offered for finding and producing oil and gas, for the first time saw Reliance Industries Ltd-bp plc combine bidding together with ONGC for one block in Gujarat offshore.
PM Modi went to New York this time not to engage in polemics, but to find solutions to global problems. He made some progress on several matters, even on reform of the UN Security Council, when the US made a major concession for the first time that six permanent members without veto, including India, could be considered
Trends in the global energy markets are crucial if India's growth outlook is to remain healthy. Prices for the Indian crude basket were averaging around $86.2 per barrel through Q1FY25 and then moderated to $84 in July and to $78-79 in August (so far). But global crude supply may outpace weak global demand in the short term.
India is a great power that determines its national interests and chooses its partners, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said, describing as "completely unjustified" the "enormous pressure" on New Delhi due to its energy cooperation with Moscow.
While most analysts are expecting poor results from oil marketing companies (OMCs) in the first quarter of 2024-25 (Q1FY25) and even in the first half (H1) of FY25, GAIL (India) could be an outlier. Upstream producers, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India (OIL) could do well due to strong crude and gas prices, but refiners are likely to see weak margins and the impact of frozen prices during the election period will also be negative.
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