While most analysts are expecting poor results from oil marketing companies (OMCs) in the first quarter of 2024-25 (Q1FY25) and even in the first half (H1) of FY25, GAIL (India) could be an outlier. Upstream producers, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India (OIL) could do well due to strong crude and gas prices, but refiners are likely to see weak margins and the impact of frozen prices during the election period will also be negative.
New Delhi has reached out to Moscow while waiting for a new president in Washington. New Delhi knows well that in international relations, there are no permanent friends or foes, only permanent national interests, points out Dr Rup Narayan Das.
India on Wednesday asserted that its energy purchases from Russia remain 'minuscule' in comparison to its total consumption and that legitimate energy transactions cannot be politicised as energy export from Russia are yet to be sanctioned. The world's third-biggest oil-consuming and importing nation has in recent weeks snapped few cargoes available from Russia at deep discounts as part of its plans to diversify its import basket. These purchases have been commented upon.
India's demand for petroleum products like petrol and diesel will grow by 7.73 per cent in 2022, the fastest pace in the world, an OPEC report said. India's demand for oil products is projected to rise from 4.77 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 5.14 million bpd in 2022, OPEC said in its monthly oil report. The growth in demand is the fastest in the world ahead of 1.23 per cent of China, 3.39 per cent of the US and 4.62 per cent of Europe.
Upstream majors ONGC and Oil India (OIL) results for the January-March quarter (Q4) of FY24 suggest better production in future. But OIL missed its own production targets although it delivered higher volumes and it disappointed the market in terms of Ebitda. ONGC reported standalone Ebitda of Rs 17,400 crore (up 7 per cent year-on-year or Y-o-Y) in Q4FY24, slightly below estimates due to other higher expenses.
Escalation of the conflict in West Asia between Israel and Iran has had a direct impact on the energy markets, and more broadly on the financial markets as well as the global economy.
Most of India's oil supplies are expected to stay safe because of the country's good relations with both Russia and Iran. That would take care of over a third of India's supplies.
India must be prepared for a big, fat fuel import bill in FY23 - barring any further avatars of the Covid virus - as refiners crank up runs, or crude processing rates, to meet the growing demand for fuels, and crude prices soar. Capacity additions by an Indian state-run refiner will reinforce the need for foreign crude. Demand for all fuels is expected to increase by 3-8 per cent next fiscal from 2021-22, reaching pre-pandemic levels, according to analysts and industry experts.
India's production of crude oil, which is refined to produce petrol and diesel, continued to decline in November, with lower output from state-owned firms leading to an over 2 per cent drop, official data released on Tuesday showed. Crude oil production in November was 2.43 million tonnes, down from 2.48 million tonnes a year back and 2.5 million tonnes in October 2021. Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) produced 3 per cent less crude oil at 1.6 million tonnes in November due to delays in mobilising equipment at western offshore fields.
India's crude oil import bill is set to exceed $100 billion in the current fiscal year ending March 31, almost double its spending last year, as international oil prices trade at seven-year highs. India spent $94.3 billion in the first 10 months (April-January) of the ongoing financial year that started April 1, 2021, according to data from the oil ministry's Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC). It spent $11.6 billion in January alone when oil prices had started to surge.
Diesel sales in India fell 3 per cent in September as a receding monsoon continued to dampen demand and slowed industrial activity in some parts of the country, preliminary data of state-owned firms showed. While diesel sales by three state-owned fuel retailers fell year-on-year, petrol sales rose in September. Consumption of diesel, the most consumed fuel in the country -- accounting for about two-fifths of the demand, fell to 5.81 million tonnes in September from 5.99 million tonnes demand in the same period a year ago.
India's imports from Russia rose 64 per cent to $36.27 billion during the April-October period this fiscal on higher shipments of crude oil and fertiliser, according to the commerce ministry data. With this, Russia has become India's second-largest import source during the first seven months of this fiscal. The imports were $22.13 billion during April-October 2022.
Krishna emphasised that India takes decision taking into consideration its domestic energy requirements.
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum may post a combined loss of Rs 10,700 crore in June quarter on selling petrol and diesel at rates below cost, a report said on Monday. While the raw material (crude oil) prices soared in April-June, petrol and diesel prices were not revised, leading to marketing losses which offset strong refining margins, ICICI Securities said in the report. The three state-owned oil marketing companies -- IOC, BPCL and HPCL -- control 90 per cent of the retail petrol and diesel sales in the country.
India's oil product consumption, an indicator of the state of economy, rose a massive 10.1 per cent in August to 7.5 million tonnes on back of increased demand for petrol and diesel.
India's imports from Russia rose by about 67 per cent to $30.42 billion during the April-September period this fiscal on higher shipments of crude oil and fertiliser, according to the commerce ministry data. With this, Russia has become India's second-largest import source during the first half of this fiscal. The imports were $18.24 billion during April-September 2022.
The country's imports from Russia almost doubled to $25.69 billion during the April-August period this fiscal due to increasing inbound shipments of crude oil and fertiliser, according to the commerce ministry data. With this, Russia has become India's second-largest import source during the first five months of this fiscal. The imports were $13.77 billion during April-August 2022.
'The impact of COVID-19 on the economy has been so overwhelming that even a significant drop in global oil prices, which in normal times would have brought cheer, has posed new challenges for the government,' observes A K Bhattacharya.
India, which consumed over 138 million tonnes of fuel in 2009-10, imports three-fourth of its oil needs and one-third of its gas requirement.
Major General S C N Jatar, who passed into the ages on Monday night, thwarted anti-national forces at the peak of the Assam agitation. Colonel Anil A Athale (retd) salutes this officer and gentleman.
India's oil import bill has swelled 52 per cent to $44.64 billion in 2005-06 on the back of high global oil prices.
Lower crude oil costs and higher marketing margins are expected to raise the fortunes of oil marketing companies (OMCs) in the first quarter (Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), while city gas distribution (CGD) companies could also benefit from lower spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, in a break from the past, growth trends are expected to diverge for various segments within the broad energy sector. Analysts expect the earnings from gas production to go down for upstream national oil and gas companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India (OIL) due to the introduction of the new domestic gas pricing regime on April 1. After showing steep losses over the first half of 2022-23 (FY23), the marketing margins of OMCs have steadily recovered in four months.
Equity and oil markets can breathe easy for now, as the developments in Russia are unlikely to trigger a runaway rally in crude oil prices, said analysts. India, which imports nearly 80 per cent of its crude oil requirement, has been dependent on cheap Russian oil over the past few months to keep inflation - a sore point for the equity markets - in check. For the Indian markets that are expected to remain volatile amid these developments, analysts believe, the progress of monsoon, fund flows - both foreign institutional investor (FII) and domestic - and the upcoming corporate earnings season back home remain key.
India's import of discounted crude oil from the Russian Federation hit an all-time high in May, with state-run refiner IOC becoming the biggest importer of Russian oil, relegating Reliance Industries to the second place, trade and shipping data show. Indian imports of Russian oil, accounting for over 46 per cent of its total crude oil imports in May, have grown after strong backing by New Delhi, with state-run refiners powering imports of discounted crude. Discounts on Russian oil average around $10 a barrel, said an official from a state-run refiner. IOC's May purchases rose by 64 per cent on the month, and accounted for half of its total crude imports last month, ship tracking data show.
India's oil import bill for the first quarter of the current fiscal has climbed to $4.72 billion while petroleum product exports totalled $706 million.
India's Iran imports rise to 276,800 bpd vs 195,600 bpd in 2013.
India's import of cheap Russian oil scaled another record in May and is now more than the combined oil bought from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and the US, industry data showed. India took 1.96 million barrels a day from Russia in May, 15 per cent more than the previous high in April, according to data from energy cargo tracker Vortexa. Russia now makes up for nearly 42 per cent of all crude oil India imported in May.
Oil producers cartel OPEC's share in India's oil imports fell to an all-time low of 46 per cent in April as purchases of cheaper Russian oil peaked, industry data showed. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) nations, mainly in the Middle East and Africa, had a 72 per cent share of all crude oil India imported in April 2022. This share slid to 46 per cent in April 2023, according to energy cargo tracker Vortexa.
While prices sustaining lower levels is crucial, Govt actions are also a key monitorable given the forthcoming elections in 2024.
India was the world's biggest importer of Russian oil in February, exceeding China by 20 million barrels.
Addressing a huge gathering in Lahore, Imran played a video clip of India's Foreign Minister S Jaishankar from Bratislava Forum held in Slovakia and praised the Indian minister for standing firm to the United States pressure over buying cheap oil from Russia.
Notwithstanding the windfall tax placing a cap on profits, oil and gas producers like Oil India (OIL) and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) have done well in the October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3) of 2022-23 (FY23). ONGC faces the drag of poor results from its subsidiary Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, and in comparative terms, OIL is better off. Standalone net sales in Q3FY23 stood at Rs 5,900 crore - up 57 per cent year-on-year (YoY), up 2 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ).
The mission has proposed pilot projects for replacing fossil fuels and fossil fuel-based feedstocks with Green Hydrogen and its derivatives.
Petrol and diesel sales in India jumped in September as economic activity picked up with the nearing festival season and the ending of the monsoon raised the demand, preliminary industry data showed. Petrol sales soared 13.2 per cent to 2.65 million tonnes in September when compared to 2.34 million tonnes of consumption in the same month last year. Sales were 20.7 per cent higher than Covid-marred September 2020 and 23.3 per cent more than pre-pandemic September 2019.
India, which imports over 80 per cent of its oil needs, spent $87.7 billion on importing 220.43 million tonne (MT) of crude oil in 2017-18. For 2018-19, the imports are pegged at almost 227 MT.
Russia has welcomed India's decision to not support the price cap on Russian oil announced by G7 and its allies and offered it cooperation on leasing and building large-capacity ships to overcome the ban on insurance services and tanker chartering in the European Union and Britain to continue buying discounted oil. The offer came as Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak held a meeting with the Indian Ambassador to Moscow, Pavan Kapoor, on Friday. "The Deputy Prime Minister welcomed India's decision not to support the price cap on Russian oil, which was imposed on December 5 by the G7 countries and their allies," the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement.
Crude oil shipments from the US to India rose to the highest levels in November since the conflict began in Ukraine in late February, sparking hopes of a resurgence in oil flows from the US to the subcontinent, reveals shipping data. Shipments from the US have surged as Western nations prepare to impose additional sanctions on Russian crude flows. The US shipped around 450,000 barrels per day of crude last month to India, twice that of shipments in October, according to data from London-based commodity intelligence provider Vortexa.
Petrol and diesel sales in the country fell in July over the previous month as the onset of monsoon chipped away demand in some sectors and restricted mobility, preliminary industry data showed. Diesel, the most widely used fuel in the country, saw consumption drop 13.1 per cent to 6.44 million tonnes from 7.39 million tonnes of demand in June. The arrival and intensity of monsoon weigh heavily on diesel demand in the country and consumption traditionally is lower in July-September than in April-June.
The government will this week sell up to 1.5 per cent of its stake in the country's top oil and gas producer ONGC to raise about Rs 3,000 crore. The Offer For Sale (OFS) by the government will be open on March 30 and 31, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) said in a stock exchange filing on Tuesday. "The promoter (the government) proposes to sell up to 94,352,094 equity shares of the company, (representing 0.75 per cent of the total paid-up equity share capital of the company) on March 30, 2022 (to non-retail investors) and on March 31, 2022 (to retail investors) with an option to additionally sell 94,352,094 equity shares (in case of oversubscription)," it said.
"In principle, the ask in return is that India should not support the G7 (Group of Seven) proposal. "A decision on this issue will be taken later following talks with all the partners," an official with the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said.These "substantial discounts" will be steeper than those offered by Iraq in the past two months, officials said.
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