After two years of strong gains, smallcap stocks fell sharply in 2025, but the correction may be setting up opportunities for long-term investors.
A lower risk appetite among investors has driven gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, to record highs so far this year. Fuelled by geopolitical tensions in West Asia, robust demand from central banks - particularly in Asia - and US President Donald Trump's tariff volleys, spot gold touched an all-time high of $2,956 per ounce on February 24 in the international markets.
Shares of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), the country's largest IT services provider, continue to remain under pressure, hitting a new eight-month low of Rs 3,624.90 intraday on Tuesday before closing at Rs 3,631, down 1.19 per cent. In the past two trading sessions, the stock price has declined 4 per cent on fears of a slowing US economy.
Information technology (IT) companies have been on the road to revival in the past one year. From being the worst-hit sector in 2022 with a loss of 26 per cent, the Nifty IT index closed 2023 with gains of 24 per cent. So far in 2024, the index is up around 7 per cent against the nearly flat Nifty 50 benchmark index. The IT index has been on a continuous decline in the last three sessions.
The recent price correction in broader markets has hit cement companies hard. So far in the current month, smallcap firms like Visaka Industries, Andhra Cements NCL Industries, Sahyadri Industries, and KCP have lost 19.7 per cent, 14.3 per cent, 13.8 per cent, 13.5 per cent, and 11.5 per cent, respectively. On the contrary, largecap companies, while registering losses for the month, have seen a softer blow.
Shares of real estate firms have been outperforming over the past year. The rally, analysts say, may hit roadblocks in the near term amid stretched valuations, even as the long-term prospects for the sector remain ebullient. "Most of the positive news flow is already in the price. Hence, investors sitting on hefty profits may partially cash out at current levels," suggests V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
Since their highs in September, chemical stocks have underperformed the benchmarks and broader indices over the past month with larger players witnessing a 9-22 per cent fall during this period. Expectations of weak September quarter results amid high inventory, demand woes and weak realisations have led to the underperformance.
The move to demerge the hotel business into a separate entity by ITC has brought back focus on hotel stocks, which have already seen a good run thus far in fiscal 2023-24 (FY24). Analysts believe there could be more gains in store over the next one year for the stocks in this sector, but suggest investors put in money on a correction only from a long-term perspective. Hotel stocks, according to A K Prabhakar, head of research at IDBI Capital, have seen a good run as travel picked up post Covid in India. Not only have the room rents increased, the occupancy, too, has surged.
Public-sector enterprise stocks have seen a good run thus far in 2023-24 (FY24), with the S&P BSE PSU Index surging by over 26 per cent during the period, compared to an 11 per cent increase in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex.
Automotive (auto) and auto ancillary stocks have been in the fast lane thus far in 2023-24 (FY24), with the National Stock Exchange Nifty Auto Index surging nearly 27 per cent, outperforming the Nifty50, which has gained roughly 11 per cent during this period. The top-gear performance of auto stocks at the bourses, according to A K Prabhakar, head of research at IDBI Capital, has been triggered by the premiumisation of products across vehicle manufacturers, which has seen vehicle sales remaining relatively stable. "It is not about higher sales figures now, but about premiumisation.
The "asset-right" strategy, reiterated by ITC chairman Sanjiv Puri during the company's 112th annual general meeting (AGM) on August 11, received a thumbs up from the analysts. They, however, believe that sustained earnings growth and synergies with the demerged hotel's vertical will help the stock break out from the ongoing consolidation. "The stock is expected to consolidate between Rs 420 and Rs 450 in the near future.
The benchmark Nifty50 managed to reclaim its 200-day moving average (DMA) on Wednesday but about half of top 500 stocks continue to languish below this key technical indicator. The 200-DMA - nearly a year's average of closing prices - is analysed by traders to understand the market sentiment. A fall below these levels indicates a weak trend.
Amid cooling raw material prices, the crude-oil linked companies, which includes paint and tyre firms, have been on a roll over the past one year. Shares of related companies have gained up to 84 per cent, as against a 14 per cent rise in the S&P BSE Sensex. Analysts, however, believe stretched valuations in both these sectors could trigger a de-rating.
With the merger between HDFC Bank and HDFC Ltd complete, analysts said the next key monitorable for the Street would be successful resolution of merger-related hiccups, including employee-related churn and roll out of complete banking services across branches. At the bourses, they expect the stock to perform in-line with the benchmark indices in the near-term. "There's usually an initial period of consolidation after a merger as the entities work towards integration.
Logistic players have seen a sharp correction at the bourses over the past six months as intense competition from new-age-tech startups, higher freight rates, and weak macros dented listed players' growth outlook. Analysts warn that the emergence of tech-based startups could weigh on organised players' profit-pool, and can potentially erode their market share. Thus, a stock-specific strategy would be prudent at this juncture with focus on companies that are rapidly innovating and investing in technology.
The share of listed public sector undertakings (PSUs) in the overall market capitalisation has hit a three-year high of 11.4 per cent. This comes on the back of the sharp outperformance of the PSU pack over the past two years. In 2021 and 2022, the BSE PSU index gained 41 per cent and 23 per cent, respectively. Market participants said a combination of factors like value buying and bullishness, particularly in public sector banks (PSBs), were the reason for the improved prospects.
The March quarter (Q4) of the ongoing financial year (FY23) may see cement companies report better financial numbers as input costs ease, pricing action resumes, and cement demand remains firm. While companies have been cautiously optimistic about their outlook, analysts and sector experts remain bullish. In its latest report on the cement sector, brokerage IDBI Capital said that it expected earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) per tonne for cement companies to improve by Rs 200-300 sequentially in Q4.
Strong Q3 brings Infosys comfort amid macro risks.
The impact of the banking crisis in the US was visible in IT bellwether Tata Consultancy Services' (TCS) weak performance in the March quarter of fiscal 2023 (Q4FY23). The firm witnessed slower revenue growth in Q4FY23 and failed to meet its FY23 exit Ebit margin of 25 per cent as some clients, especially in the North American region, took to pausing projects and rising onsite costs offset utilisation gains. Sequentially, the company's revenue grew by just 0.6 per cent on a constant currency basis, which was one of the slowest paces in over 11 quarters.
However, in the last few sessions, the stock of Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), hit its 52-week low level of Rs 2269.75, and has been one of the worst performers among the Sensex pack thus far in calendar year 2023 (CY23). Thus far in CY23, RIL has tanked nearly 11 per cent as compared to a fall of around 5 per cent in the S&P BSE Sensex. The fall in the stock, according to Gaurang Shah, senior vice-president at Geojit Financial Services is mostly due to the overall dip in the market sentiment, which in turn has impacted large-caps, including RIL.
Despite gold prices hitting record highs, analysts aren't gung-ho about the outlook for gold financiers Muthoot Finance and Manappuram Finance. This, they said, was due to intense competition from banks, coupled with stagnating loan books and likely pressure on margins.
Auto Expo 2023 may not trigger a fresh rally in automobile stocks, say analysts, as this year's edition lacks participation from major listed players. It is also owing to the focus on electric vehicles (EVs), a segment where four-wheelers have minuscule market share. "In the passenger vehicles (PV) segment, Maruti Suzuki India and Tata Motors are the only listed players.
Investors seem to be shying away from stocks of companies in the 'digital' space with most counters that comprise the Nifty India Digital index giving negative returns over the past year. The index tracks the performance of a portfolio of stocks that broadly represent the 'digital theme' within basic industries, such as software, e-commerce, IT-enabled services, industrial electronics, and telecom services. The fall in some of these stocks over the past year has been steep; the sharpest decline of around 60 per cent was seen in shares of PB Fintech (parent company of Policybazaar).
While weather forecasters remain divided on how the monsoons will play out in India over the next few months, analysts believe the news at the current juncture - at best - can trigger a knee-jerk reaction in the markets. They believe it is too early to say whether the sub-par monsoon on account of El Nino can seriously dent the market sentiment in the short-to-medium term. "These are just initial forecasts and we will have another round / status update from the weather forecasters a month down the line.
ITC has been one of the best performing large-cap stock at the bourses thus far in calendar year 2022 (CY22), rallying nearly 52 per cent during this period and outperforming the sector benchmark - the S&P BSE FMCG index - by a wide margin that moved up around 17 per cent during this period. However, the counter has lost over 5 per cent from its recent high of Rs 346.25 hit on September 23, 2022 and has underperformed the S&P BSE Sensex, which has lost nearly 2 per cent since then. So, is the rally in the stock coming to an end, and is this a good time to book profit?
Notwithstanding the inflation pinch, analysts believe the Indian retail sector is on the 'cusp of accelerated earnings growth' as consumer sentiment and discretionary purchases bounce back from the Covid-19 pandemic. "The shift in consumer preference from the unorganised sector to the organised, coupled with uptick in domestic demand as people resume work from office, will cheer the Indian retail sector," says Nishit Master, portfolio manager, Axis Securities. Shopping malls are witnessing increased footfall in lower tier towns and standalone stores as consumption picks up and mobility improves.
The sharp correction in equity markets has taken a toll on mid-and-small cap stocks that have underperformed their large-cap peers. Thus far in calendar year 2022 (CY22), the mid-and-small cap indexes on the BSE have slipped over 8 per cent and 7 per cent respectively, as compared to a fall of around 6 per cent in the S&P BSE Sensex. While investors dumped mid-and small-cap stocks as the markets remained choppy over the past few weeks, analysts still expect these two segments to see good investor interest from a medium-to-long term perspective.
The institutional portion was subscribed 143 times, the wealthy investor portion by 360 times and the retail investor portion by 24.5 times.
A lot of mid and small-caps are in the bubble zone and command high valuation and have corrected sharply.
'The correction could take two to three months and traders need to be careful.' 'For investors, this could be a good time to nibble in.'
IDBI Capital says it is seeking bids for "sale of equity shares not exceeding 5 per cent of the equity share capital of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd".
Re-rating of Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Container Corporation, Shipping Corporation, SAIL, and Hindustan Copper, for which the government has already shown intent to divest its stake, possible now, say analysts.
Low home loan rates by banks could put large players in an advantageous position over smaller non-bank players, believe analysts.
This correction has given a good entry for long-term investors. One should buy quality stocks and those with growth potential.
IDBI Bank had to sell its MF arm after being acquired by state-owned insurance behemoth Life Insurance Corporation since LIC already had an AMC.
The share of public sector undertakings (PSUs) in the total market capitalisation of listed companies--at an all-time low of 10 per cent currently --- may get a leg-up from the government's divestment push. Recently the government announced the successful sale of national carrier Air India to Tata Sons, India's first privatisation of a PSU since 2002-03. The transaction is expected to be completed by December.
Stocks of public sector companies, especially the oil refining and marketing companies (OMCs) - Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC) - logged gains on Tuesday in a weak market. While the Nifty lost nearly 1 per cent in trade on Tuesday, the Nifty CPSE index - a gauge of performance of central public sector enterprises on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) - gained over 3 per cent in intra-day trade. The rally in PSU stocks comes on the back of the BPCL chairman, Arun Kumar Singh suggesting in the company's annual general meeting (AGM) on Monday that the government intends to complete the divestment process in the OMC by March 2022.
The latest circular from BSE that sought to cap the price movement of select scrips, especially the mid-, small-cap segments, traded on the exchange is not without a reason. A quick calendar year-to-date price check on the stocks from the categories put under 'Add-on Price Band Framework' by the BSE reveals a total of 210 stocks have seen their market price more than double. Among individual stocks, SC Agrotech, Adinath Textiles, Waaree Renewable Technologies, Steel Strips Infrastructure, Unistar Multimedia, Texel Industries, Raja Bahadur International and Hindustan Everest Tools from the BSE's X and XT group have rallied over 500 per cent during this period. Topping the charts is Gita Renewable Energy, which has zoomed 3,964 per cent to Rs 272.35 now from Rs 6.7 as on December 31, 2020.
'Investors should put their money in stocks where the margin of safety is high.'
Around 75 per cent, or 372 stocks, that are part of the BSE500 are trading at least 10 per cent below their all-time high levels, despite the index hitting a record high 20,515 points on the BSE in intra-day trade on Wednesday, surpassing its previous high of 20,390 touched in March 12. The index, which accounts for 93 per cent of BSE listed companies' market capitalisation, has gained 8 per cent from its recent low of 18,983, touched on April 19. In comparison, the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex gained 6 per cent over the same period, but is still nearly 4.5 per cent away from its all-time high of 52,517 that it hit on February 16.
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