The days of spot prices of gold differing from one city to another will soon be over.
Besides being an investment instrument, it is hedge against inflation and store of value.
Retail investment demand for gold bars and coins as well as central bank purchases pushed the global gold demand by 28 per cent to 1,181.5 tonnes in the September quarter, according to the World Gold Council report. The total global demand stood at 921.9 tonnes during the July-September quarter of 2021, the World Gold Council's 'Gold Demand Trends Q3 2022' showed on Tuesday. Investment was down 47 per cent year-on-year as gold backed Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) investors responded to a challenging combination of higher interest rates and a strong US dollar with significant outflows of 227 tonnes.
In the face of imminent US recession, fears of gold falling during recession are rife.
Gold had hit an all-time high of Rs 11,492 on the Multi Commodity Exchange, the largest commodity bourse. The gold contract has gone up more than 7 per cent so far in 2008. Traders said the demand for gold is dull, as many people are expecting that the prices will come down.
The retail industry witnessed robust top-line growth for the greater part of the previous financial year, but demand has started to show signs of fatigue seen in the January-March quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4) of 2022-23 (FY23), especially in the apparel and innerwear segments. Jewellery, however, has managed to hold on to demand in the quarter. "In the discretionary space, demand moderation in urban markets is expected to impact the quick-service restaurant and apparel categories the most, while paint, luggage, and jewellery should see resilient growth," Systematic Institutional Equities observed in its preview of the sector.
India's gold demand declined 18 per cent to 135.5 tonnes in the first three months of this year, mainly due to a sharp rise in prices, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). The demand stood at 165.8 tonnes in the first three months of 2021. In terms of value, gold demand dropped 12 per cent to Rs 61,550 crore in the January-March period. It stood at Rs 69,720 crore in the year-ago period, the 'Gold Demand Trends Q1 2022' report released by the WGC said.
The demand for gold has bounced back sharply in India from the lows seen in 2020 because of the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, and has even beaten the pre-pandemic level. In the September quarter, the demand for gold jumped 47 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to 139.1 tonnes, as against 94.6 tonnes in the year-ago period, and higher than the 123.9 tonnes recorded in the pre-pandemic September 2019 quarter, the World Gold Council (WGC) said in its latest release. In value terms, demand surged 37 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 59,330 crore during the quarter.
Gold price is likely to remain under pressure due to geopolitical tensions.
With gold breaching the Rs 20,000-mark for a sovereign recently, market figures show there has been no let-up in retail buying, as gold is an integral part of marriage, cutting across caste and community divides in Kerala.
With more and more people opting for gold as an investment option, the yellow metal is on track to set record levels, probably this year.
The metal meant for exports is being sold to third parties at a premiums adding pressure on domestic market.
Gold coins are selling at a Rs 100 per 10 gram premium since Guru Pushya Nakshatra, one of the most auspicious occasions for buying precious metals in western Indian states.
Investment consulting firm Millwood Kane International said on Tuesday that investments in gold gave gains of nearly 28 per cent in rupee terms during 2020 and will remain in focus for investors in the coming year. "The yellow metal has had a phenomenal year with gains of nearly 28 per cent in rupee terms. "After a double-digit gain in 2019, this will be the second year in a row that gold will be posting a stellar rise," said founder and CEO Nish Bhatt.
Current account deficit could ease to around 3 per cent in the current fiscal year from prior estimates of about 4 per cent due to sharp drop in global commodity prices.
Gold, silver, copper hit multi-year lows, Brent crude near $100 a barrel.
Traders had accumulated stocks when the FM hinted of a duty hike.
Amidst recession and job losses, Britons of Indian origin and others have been flocking to jewellery shops to cash in on rising price of gold, selling their rings, chains and even dental braces made of gold.
The wedding season will continue till early January and gold is an important gift item at marriages.
Global gold demand has seen a year-on-year decline of 8 per cent during the April-June period to 948.4 tonnes and going ahead further monetary tightening and continued dollar strength may pose headwinds, says a report. According to the WGC Gold Demand Trends Q2 2022 report, the total gold demand during the second quarter of 2021 stood at 1,031.8 tonnes. The year-on-year demand was affected by increase in gold electronic traded funds (ETFs) outflow, decline in Central banks buying and lower demand from the technology segment, the report said.
The auspicious day of Akshaya Tritiya has begun on a strong note as jewellers are witnessing good footfalls and being a public holiday on Tuesday, consumers are flocking to the stores early before the temperature soars. "Jewellers across the country have opened their stores early across the country and there is a strong momentum in footfalls since morning. "There has been positive sentiment in the market since the last 10-15 days and we expect it to continue on the day of Akshaya Tritiya.
Despite its recent underperformance, gold must be a part of your portfolio.
Gold fell to, and held near-term support at $914.00 in overnight trading in Asia before turning higher in the morning hours, ahead of the New York opening. New York spot trading opened with gold at $ 926, up $ 1.20 as players watched the dollar dropping under 71.60 on the index, and crude oil rise to just above $ 111 per barrel. Silver was down 6 cents on the open, quoted at $17.68 but the noble metals took a harder fall. Platinum lost $48 at $1960.00 & palladium dropped $13.
Production from many gold producing regions of the world is currently constrained by power shortages; and rapidly inflating development costs are causing the postponement of several otherwise promising development projects around the world.
Govt measures, rupee movements to determine domestic levels
While taking gold out of the closet to borrow money is no longer taboo in Indian households, the sharp drop in gold prices is hitting the newest loan product on the banking turf hard, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Gold zoomed by a whopping Rs 215 per ten gram and closed at a new closing high of Rs 9,945 on the bullion market in Mumbai on Friday due to frantic buying after metal's prices touched a 25-year high.
Gold rose further on the bullion market in Mumbai due to increased buying by stockists after rise in the overseas prices. Silver also ended better in line with gold.
'India has formed tremendous resilience and still a strong growth.'
Let's take a look at the arguments that will decide the price of gold this year.
Meanwhile, retail jewellery sales in India have declined by 50 per cent since gold price started its uptrend nearly two weeks. Buyers deferred their fresh purchase amid expectations of a correction in gold prices from the current high level.
High gold prices let Indians feel wealthier and spend more, making monetary policy less effective.
'You may see some movement indicating a simpler tax regime with less exemptions but with fewer tax rates making life simpler for taxpayers.'
Jewellery stores remained deserted as buyers deferred their non-essential purchases awaiting softness in gold prices.
The prices of gold last year on the Dhanteras day ruled at Rs 12,070 per 10 gram.
Traders said some buying by jewellers and retailers amid a firming global trend helped prices move further.
Investors pumped Rs 491 crore in gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) in February as they seem be taking advantage of the lower domestic prices caused due to declining international rates, appreciating rupee and reduction in custom duty. This came following a net investment of Rs 625 crore in January and Rs 431 crore in December. Prior to this, gold ETFs had seen an outflow of Rs 141 crore in November, data available with Association of Mutual Funds in India showed.
Dhanteras has cheered up jewellers as it has turned out to be the best in three years, thanks to the lower price of the yellow metal and pent-up demand. In Mumbai's Zaveri bazaar, buyers came in out force and jewellers did not have to depend on freebies to induce sales, even though all of them had announced some offers. In fact, more discounts were announced for diamond and studded jewellery.
It's likely that prices may have much further to fall as investors rush to liquidate.
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