A yellow glow is likely to stand out amid grey geopolitical clouds in 2023, with gold price projected to touch Rs 60,000 per 10 grams in the Indian market as more investors veer towards safe-haven assets. In a year where volatility was more a norm than an exception, gold prices in the international market oscillated from a peak of $2,070 per ounce in March to a low of $1,616 per ounce in November and is steadily recovering since then, according to market experts. At the beginning of 2022, gold prices were around $1,800 an ounce.
'It is the best avenue for investors who would like to take long-term exposure to gold.'
Traders attributed persistent fall in gold prices to easing demand.
Gold prices are struggling and are down 18 per cent from their March highs. But stock prices have fallen even more. As a result, the precious metal has begun to outperform equities - both in the domestic market and international markets. Gold prices are up 2.6 per cent in the domestic market in the current calendar year (CY22) so far, according to the World Gold Council (WGC), compared to a 1.7 per cent decline in the Sensex year-to-date (YTD).
'If equities perform well in a year, withdraw money from equities. If the equity market is down, shift withdrawal to the debt portion.'
Global cues may further weaken the yellow metal; imports seen under control after January surge.
Traders attributed the rise in prices to higher demand of precious metals for the coming festivals like Rakshabandhan compared with supply, which has tightened because of fall in imports following government measures.
Gold burnished its image as the go-to asset class during turbulent times. However, investors seemed to have missed the bus. Net inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) plunged to a four-year low of Rs 653 crore in 2022-23 (FY23), even as gold emerged as the top-performing asset class.
Silver also slumped by Rs 1,700 to Rs 37,200 per kg.
Titan's October-December quarter (Q3) business update claims 22-23 per cent revenue growth in the standalone jewellery sales (excluding bullion sales), implying a 4-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.3 per cent. Store additions also looked healthy, with 21 new Tanishq stores opened in Q3, taking the total count to 466 (+43 in 9 months of FY24) including two in the US and one in Singapore. Titan added 90 stores in Q3, pushing its total retail outlets to 2,949 (including CaratLane).
Gold prices plunged by Rs 410 to trade at over two-week low of Rs 27,790 per 10 grams at the bullion market on Monday.
Gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) witnessed a net outflow of Rs 199 crore in January, making it the third monthly withdrawal in a row, with investors preferring equities over other segments on buoyant record SIP flow. This was in comparison to a net outflow of Rs 273 crore registered in the segment in December and Rs 195 crore in November. Prior to that, Gold ETFs attracted Rs 147 crore in October, data with Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) showed.
This is a good opportunity for long-term investors to pick quality small and midcap stocks at reasonable valuations.
'When the gold price rises rapidly, India's physical gold market remains on standby.'
Gold prices zoomed up by Rs 110 per ten grams to close at a 6-year high of Rs 5450 on the bullion market on Friday due to hectic stockistsÂ’ buying prompted by a steep rally in the international prices.
Stocks of gold jewellery retailers have been able to retain their sheen in 2023 despite volatile gold prices. Kalyan Jewellers, Titan, PC Jewellers, Thangamayil Jewellery, and Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri (TBZ) have rallied 21-72 per cent so far since April as compared to a 13 per cent gain in the benchmark Sensex index. The rally gained steam on the back of gold's 6 per cen
Jewellers in India, the world's second largest gold consuming country after China, have started receiving more inquiries for purchase of gold or silver immediately after the Reserve Bank's announcement to withdraw Rs 2,000 notes from circulation. However, there is no panic buying of the precious metal unlike the situation witnessed in 2016 during demonetisation, jewellers body GJC said on Sunday. In fact in the last two days, the actual gold purchase has been less in exchange of Rs 2,000 notes due to strict Know your Customer (KYC) norms although sources said some jewellers have started charging a 5-10 per cent premium, taking the gold prices to Rs 66,000 per 10 grams level.
Indications are that the DMK combine will win more seats than the AIADMK and BJP, but is facing a tough fight in about half a dozen from the rest, predicts N Sathiya Moorthy of the electoral contest in Tamil Nadu.
Despite multiple headwinds at the start of 2023, the Indian markets delivered a strong performance, posting 19-20 per cent growth for the year. Even as new records were set, investor sentiment remains strong going into 2024, given the lower inflation, expectations of steady to lower interest rates, higher economic growth, and strong inflows. However, the overriding concern for most brokerages is valuations.
Titan posted better than expected revenue growth in the March quarter of the financial year 2022-23 (Q4FY23), powered by strong demand trends in the jewellery and watch segment. Standalone jewellery sales for the firm were up 24 per cent year-on-year (YoY) on a slightly lower base and aided by like-to-like growth of 19 per cent. The company highlighted that new buyer growth was at 15 per cent while average ticket size was up 8 per cent.
The new Samvat 2080 is viewed as a year of hope for industrial and precious metals. A key reason is the expectation of US interest rates peaking, followed by a reduction in the coming months. Regarding crude oil, its trajectory depends more on how the situation unfolds in West Asia.
The sharp jump in shares of Kalyan Jewellers (Kalyan) has surprised many on the Street; however, analysts believe more steam could be left in the stock as the Thrissur-based gold retailer pivots to a new asset-light network expansion model. Kalyan's stock has surged 62 per cent in the past month, even as the S&P BSE SmallCap Index has gained just 5 per cent. In its latest business update, the company said its consolidated sales grew more than consensus expectations at 31 per cent year-on-year, led by strong domestic sales regardless of the volatility in gold prices.
Jeera July futures in NCDEX touched a record high of Rs. 58,085 per quintal on Monday, before coming down to around Rs. 55,500 on Tuesday. This was due to profit booking and extension of additional surveillance margin of 2.5 per cent till July 18, including on all contracts to be launched in the future. The softening, according to some reports, is also because of fears of regulatory action on jeera traders over allegations of excessive speculation.
The net inflows into active equity mutual fund (MF) schemes registered more than a twofold month-on-month rise in August, crossing Rs 20,000 crore, the highest in five months. This rise in net inflows was boosted by an 18 per cent growth in gross investments, driven by a record Rs 15,800 crore inflow through the systematic investment plan (SIP) route and Rs 5,000 crore collected by seven new fund offers (NFOs) in the active equity space, reveals data released by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi). Moreover, redemptions moderated in August, declining by 19 per cent to Rs 24,580 crore, after staying elevated in the previous three months owing to profit booking.
Gold prices hit record high in the third week of March as fears of bank collapses and high inflation led investors to the traditional safe haven. Gold prices are often inversely correlated to dollar strength because the international price is dollar-denominated. The Federal Reserve's (Fed's) stance indicates that the dollar may appreciate further since it is prepared to keep pushing up policy rates. But demand for gold is also up - the World Gold Council claims central banks are buying in addition to private demand.
Gold prices have surged nearly 18 per cent, so far, in the calendar year 2022 (CY22) to around $2,050 per ounce against the backdrop of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and there is more headroom over the next few months, believe analysts at Goldman Sachs who expect the yellow metal to become costlier by another 25 per cent to $2,500 an ounce by the year-end. Goldman Sachs, earlier, had raised its 12-month gold price forecast to $2,150 per ounce considering that an impending US growth slowdown would lead to increased concerns of a US recession and incentivise 300 tonnes of inflows into gold ETFs. At the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine tensions, Goldman Sachs had suggested the resultant rally in commodities could deteriorate the developed market (DM) growth-inflation mix, increase concerns of a American recession, and push gold ETF inflows to 600 tonnes and, in turn, lift gold prices to $2,350 an ounce in 12 months.
The yellow metal gives negative returns after 12 yrs; analysts say it'll be subdued in 1st half of 2014, with a revival likely later.
Geopolitical climate and equity markets as supportive for gold's role as a risk hedge.
Despite gold prices hitting record highs, analysts aren't gung-ho about the outlook for gold financiers Muthoot Finance and Manappuram Finance. This, they said, was due to intense competition from banks, coupled with stagnating loan books and likely pressure on margins.
Gold touched a all-time high of at Rs 18,550 per 10 gm in the bullion market on Thursday, then slipped a tad to end at Rs 18,210. Pure gold (99.9 purity), however, closed unchanged at at Rs 18,310 per 10 gm.
Gold is usually seen as a safe-haven when stocks are falling or when inflation is rising. With prices of the yellow metal hovering near record highs, people are also putting off their jewellery purchases. Along with a subdued marriage season, the orders with price open and settled on delivery day, too, are getting cancelled. Apart from high, volatile prices, there is no gold rush yet for the safe-haven asset, crimping demand.
Consumption of gold is the highest among middle-income households - those with annual income between Rs 2 lakh and Rs 10 lakh - who account for an average of 56 per cent of gold sales over the last five years, according to a nationwide survey conducted by India Gold Policy Centre (IGPC) at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (IIM-A). "Per capita consumption is highest among the rich, but total volume still rests with the middle-income group. "With increasing income, there is an increasing propensity to consume gold, although the share of gold in the portfolio does not increase with the same proportion of income," the survey report says.
Transcript of the weekly market chat with Pranav Sanghavi.
'Avoid going overweight on gold. But maintain a 10 per cent allocation via sovereign gold bonds,' Bajaj Capital MD Sanjiv Bajaj tells Sarbajeet K Sen.
Gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) witnessed a net outflow of Rs 248 crore in February, making it the second consecutive month of withdrawals as investors preferred equities over other segments on record SIP flows. Net outflows from the gold ETFs were at Rs 452 crore in the month of January. Prior to that, the asset class had seen a net investment of Rs 313 crore, according to the data of Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi). Despite the outflows, the category witnessed an increase in net assets under management (AUM) of gold ETFs to Rs 18,727 crore at the end of February from Rs 17,839 crore in January-end.
With Indian jewellery market already on the robust recovery path, the jewellers are expecting strong Diwali sales in the Dhanteras as the festive mood remains high with low Covid third wave possibility and softer gold price this season. The industry expects the trends in 2021 will be able to reach pre-covid level sales of 2019 on the back of gold price hovering at Rs 46,000-47,000 per 22 carat 10 grams gold nearly 5 per cent lower than 2020, and jump in number of weddings, a senior official of an industry body said. "Since Navratri market is showing demand. It will continue on Dhanteras also.
In 2022, gold emerged as the top performer among all conventional asset classes with over 14 per cent returns mainly owing to the depreciation of the rupee.
Gold cracked as much as Rs 730 -- its biggest one-day fall this year -- to Rs 30,520 per 10 grammes, in sync with a weak trend overseas on growing US rate hike buzz amid a fall in demand at the spot market.
Even those reaching out to jewellery showrooms at the peak of the marriage season are putting a cap on their purchases, jewellers rued.
It was trading around Rs 30,638 per 10 grams, the lowest since August 30.
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