Measures that quickly boost demand and increase employment are needed to push up growth. Moreover, without announcing new planss, the government should strengthen schemes such as PM KISAN, MNREGA and programmes to build rural roads.
Has the experiment of appointing non-government economists worked?
Leading economists said on Tuesday the Reserve Bank of India decision to keep the key policy rates unchanged was on expected lines and expressed hope that with inflation now treading down it would change its policy stance by next month.
Amid sagging business outlooks from various chambers, economists on Wednesday told finance minister Pranab Mukherjee that Budget 2012-13 should restore the confidence of investors.
This is despite a Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry survey showing more players were optimistic on a recovery in manufacturing in the last quarter of 2011-12.
The economists, polled by industry body Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, said the RBI may raise the cash reserve ratio, which is a portion of deposits that banks keep in cash with the central bank, by 50 basis points to 5.5 per cent, although this would have no impact on containing inflation.
Investment growth moderated slightly in the economy during the first quarter (Q1) of the current financial year (2023-24, or FY24), notwithstanding the front-loading of capital expenditure (capex) by the Centre. This was also the case despite a pick-up in demand during the period after two dismal consecutive quarters. Although growth in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), representing investment, fell to a five-quarter low of 7.96 per cent, the comparison with the first two quarters of the previous year is a bit askew due to the low year-on-year (Y-o-Y) base of those periods.
NITI Aayog plans to hire a Chief Economist to conduct research on India's economic policy issues.
13 eminent economists, including former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan and current International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Gita Gopinath, in a report have asked the political establishment not to resort to populist tricks.
Arvind Subramanian was appointed CEA in October 2014 and got a year's extension in September 2017
Crisil Ratings on Wednesday projected India's GDP growth at 6.8 per cent in the next fiscal and said the country will become an upper middle-income nation by 2031 with the economy doubling to $7 trillion. In its India Outlook report, Crisil said the Indian economy will take support from domestic structural reforms and cyclical levers and can retain -- perhaps even improve -- its growth prospects to become the third largest economy by 2031. "After a better-than-expected 7.6 per cent this fiscal, India's real GDP growth will likely moderate to 6.8 per cent in fiscal 2025," said the Crisil India Outlook report.
Economists have asked Finance Minister Arun Jaitley to lower interest rate, rationalise subsidies, remove all cess and surcharge, do away with the retrospective tax amendments and scrap dividend distribution tax to revive investment cycle and promote growth.
Leading economists on Friday called for more fiscal measures to sustain the Indian growth story.
Economists who get too close to prime ministers eventually come to grief after their boss is defeated
India can become a $6.7 trillion economy by 2031, from $3.4 trillion currently, if the country clocks an average growth of 6.7 per cent for 7 years, an S&P Global report said on Thursday. India had clocked a 7.2 per cent GDP growth in 2022-23 fiscal. But a global slowdown and lagged effect of a policy rate hike by RBI could slow down growth to 6 per cent in the current fiscal, S&P Global said in a report titled 'Look Forward: India's Money'.
Retail inflation declined to a three-month low of 5.1 per cent in January, mainly due to subdued prices of vegetables, fruits and other food items, according to government data released on Monday. The fall indicates that retail inflation is inching towards the Reserve Bank's comfort level of 4 per cent. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was on the rise for two straight months after touching a trough of 4.9 per cent in October 2023. In December, it stood at 5.69 per cent.
Nearly Rs 3,400 crore (Rs 34 billion) in cash and other items were seized in the elections in 2022-2023, an increase of 835 per cent over 2017-2018.
Rajan would slow down some of the expansion of money and it ought to have little effect on the real economy.
RBI had said last week it would continue with the monetary tightening till the inflation trajectory showed a downward trend.
Describing the annual monetary policy announced by RBI Governor D Subbarao as a progressive one, Ernst & Young India's Ashvin Parekh said, "We have almost reached a point where inflation has become unmanageable and RBI has clearly indicated that bringing down inflation to a comfortable level is its top priority."
This period of strong growth not only offers opportunities but also calls for strategic considerations to ensure sustainable development and equitable prosperity in the years to come, suggests Sujan Hajra.
The 94-year-old economist was a senior research fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University from 1977 to 2006.
The police deployed tear gas and water cannons for a second day to stop the farmers from marching to Delhi.
They remained mixed in their view whether this signals a pause to the spate of rate spikes in the near term.
Retail inflation rose at the fastest pace in four months in December 2023 at 5.69 per cent, on account of an increase in prices of vegetables, pulses, and spices, according to government data released on Friday. The annual inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at 5.55 per cent in November and 5.72 per cent in the year-ago month. As per the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), the rate of price rise in the food basket, which constitutes nearly half of the CPI, increased to 9.53 per cent in December 2023, as against 8.7 per cent in the preceding month, and 4.19 per cent in December 2022.
A potential risk to the rupee's appreciation trajectory lies in the event of a delay in the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle, particularly if core inflation in the US remains elevated.
Playing down a billion dollar trade deficit in China in the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, economists said the country would return to surplus path from April-June quarter.
Much of the rural recovery story is based on the premise of agriculture doing well. Even if it clocks a growth of 2.5-3 per cent this year, it is still just around 15 per cent of the overall GDP. The non-farm sector, which constitutes a bigger portion of the overall rural economy, is now hampered by disruptions and lockdowns.
India's industrial production growth slowed to 3.8 per cent in December 2023, mainly due to poor performance of mining and power generation segments, according to official data released on Monday. The factory output growth measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) was at 5.1 per cent in December 2022. In November last year, IIP growth stood at 2.4 per cent.
With inflation topping the government agenda, economists have told Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee to focus on policies to boost agricultural productivity in the upcoming Budget for 2011-12.
'What should surprise BJP supporters is Modi's call for 'stability' at the manifesto launch, a theme that he and his team members had not touched ahead of the Lok Sabha polls in 2014 and 2019.' 'The last time the party called for 'stability at the Centre' was in 1998 and 1999,' recalls N Sathiya Moorthy.
'If we want real democracy, the economy itself will need to be democratised.'
Paul Romer, a New York University professor and economist
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh joined former Russian Premier Yegor Gaidar and Nobel laureates on Thursday to compliment Padma Desai, described as 'An economist's economist' by Nobel laureate Paul Samuelson.
Citing the sharp rise in food prices, economists at a foreign bank have forecast a steeply higher retail inflation print for July, pegging it at 6.7 per cent, up 190 basis points from the previous month. Deutsche Bank India economists led by chief economist Kaushik Das, in a report on Monday ahead of the monthly inflation print and the Reserve Bank's monetary policy review, said that the July consumer price-based inflation index (CPI) is likely to print at 6.7 per cent on-year as against 4.8 per cent in June. The Reserve Bank is widely believed to leave the key interest rates unchanged for the fourth time in its upcoming bi-monthly monetary policy decision on August 10.
A monsoon deficit is likely to affect the agriculture output, which could have an impact on the food inflation
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday said the interim Budget presented by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman offers the "guarantee" of strengthening the foundation of a developed India and carries the "confidence of continuity".
'The prime minister took a meeting recently and he asked for suggestions and ideas for a plan till 2047.'
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