If that happens, India's economic size will be just shy of $20 trillion and its annual per capita income will be about $10,000, when the country celebrates its centenary of independence.
'What we have to think about is, how to improve the efficiency of public sector banks.' 'You have to make decision-making more prudent, and free from government intervention.'
From social engineering to bearing the cost of COVID-19 treatment to financial reconstruction of Tamil Nadu's debt the debutant chief minister is emerging as a leader with a difference, says Shjne Jacob
Indian rupee, which earlier this week touched an all-time low, is likely to remain under pressure and may test new levels as a fallout of the US Federal Reserve indicating more interest rate hikes, experts said. The aggressive rate hikes will dampen demand and increase the possibility of a recession in the US. This could accelerate the pace of capital outflows, weaken the rupee and raise the threat of imported inflation.
Subramanian's paper comes at a time when concerns have been raised in various quarters about the official economic growth numbers. The Economic Advisory Council-PM said the Base Year of India's income calculations were shifted to 2011-12 on the basis of recommendations of several committees with experts in national income accounting.
According to state government sources, not only did the governor insert some corrections, but he also initialled the final draft after those corrections had been made, reveals N Sathiya Moorthy.
'We have to think of the repercussions if public sector banks are privatised and if they go to foreign hands.'
India's rupee is likely to remain under pressure due to high prices of crude oil and other commodities, and may stabilise at around 79-80 against the US dollar in the near term, say experts amid limited headroom available with the Reserve Bank to check the weakening of the domestic currency. The currency has slumped over 5 per cent this year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent international crude oil prices soaring to a decade high. On Monday, rupee ended at a fresh all-time low of 78.34 (provisional) against the US dollar.
Sajjid Chenoy, India economist at JP Morgan is the new part-time member.
The outbound FDI is also expected to increase, resulting in net FDI inflow of $24 billion.
The country's economy will start witnessing a growth of 6.5 to 7 per cent from fiscal 2023 onwards, helped by various reforms undertaken by the government so far and also as COVID-19 vaccination drive progresses, Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian said. He said the second wave of COVID-19 is unlikely to have a very significant on the economy. The country's economy contracted by 7.3 per cent in fiscal 2020-21. "Together with the reforms and focus on vaccination, I expect growth to start hitting close 6.5 to 7 per cent from FY23 onwards and accelerate from there on," Subramanian said at a virtual event organised by Dun & Bradstreet.
Economic growth rate had slipped to decade's low of 5 per cent in 2012-13 mainly on account of the impact of the global financial woes.
Banks should neither be timid nor adventurous while lending as the loans of today should not become NPAs of tomorrow, he said.
Raise the price of diesel and restrict supply of subsidised LPG cylinder in a year to four per family, Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Panel suggested on Friday.
Amid fears of a third wave of coronavirus pandemic and hardening of retail inflation, the Reserve Bank is likely to maintain status quo on interest rate and watch the developing macroeconomic situation for some more time before taking any decisive action on monetary policy. The RBI is scheduled to announce its bi-monthly monetary policy review on August 6 at the end of the three-day meeting -- August 4-6 -- of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The RBI Governor-headed six-member MPC decides on the key policy rates.
With inflation still ruling above the 9 per cent mark, Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Committee (PMEAC) on Wednesday suggested that the Reserve Bank should continue to focus on controlling the rising prices.
CRR stand at 5.5 per cent after a 50 basis points cut in January.
Chief Minister MK Stalin has shown that he is cut from a different cloth when it comes to embracing what is current, modern and absolutely necessary. Thus, even while retaining the spirit and content of the pan-Tamil, Dravidian socio-political and socio-economic ideology to the 't', his government has also acknowledged the need to accepting scientifically-proven facts in operational matters, says N Sathiya Moorthy.
'We can go somewhere between 35 per cent and 40 per cent.'
Prime Minister's economic advisory panel chief C Rangarajan has described the dip in factory output in September as 'disappointing' and said industry may grow by just 6 per cent in the current fiscal, as against the earlier projection of 7 per cent.
However, Icra Rating Principal Economist Aditi Nayar feels that the numbers are a bit too optimistic and need real heavy-lifting by the Centre and the states. "The survey forecasts on real and nominal GDP will require a substantial push from Central and state spending as private sector capacity expansion is anticipated to be intermittent, and sector-specific in the next couple of quarters," she said. Nayar added that private consumption is likely to chart a differentiated recovery across income and age groups. Based on the comments made in the Survey, she expects the Union Budget to incorporate a growth in gross tax revenue of 15-16 per cent.
Projecting acceleration in India's GDP growth to 9% for FY 2011-012, Economic Advisory Council to Prime Minister seeks measure to address serious supply bottlenecks.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will be briefed on the state of the economy and the growth outlook by his economic advisory council on Friday.
The government on June 25 deregulated petrol price and said the same for diesel will be done soon. But with inflation rate continuing to remain at unmanageable levels, the government put-off the decision as any further hike in diesel price would lead to cascading effect.
The report added that the rapid adjustments in the monetary and fiscal policies were well calibrated and not excessive, enabling the government to contemplate a return to fiscal consolidation in 2010-11 and an early normalisation of the monetary policy stance.
Bhalla will succeed former RBI deputy governor Subir Gokarn, who died in the US on July 30 after a brief illness.
The Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, headed by former Reserve Bank Governor C Rangarajan, had said that it was unlikely that the GDP growth rate would be lower than 6.25 per cent for the current fiscal; buy might reach 6.75 per cent despite the adverse impact of monsoon on farm sector output.
'In May 2020-2021, nearly 10 crores (100 million) lost jobs. 'Covid is not the reason for the present crisis. It aggravated the crisis.'
The panel may include or seek inputs from former RBI Governor Urjit Patel, former chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian, Sajjid Chinoy of the PM-EAC, Rathin Roy, among others.
Earlier the council's outlook was 7-7.5 per cent for the year. Even the revised forecast is yet quite optimistic compared to other agencies.
Many in the US establishment must hope that the crisis would put the brakes on China's growing military might. Well, it ain't gonna happen, says T T Ram Mohan, who was appointed a member of the prime minister's economic advisory council on Wednesday, October 28, 2021.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Wednesday said he was confident that the economy will grow close to 8 per cent this fiscal, although the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council saw gross domestic product expansion slowing to 7.7 per cent.
Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister has identified ten themes, including economic growth and job creations that need attention.
Debroy is expected to have a role and responsibility similar to the erstwhile chairman of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council
There are indications or signs of the economy picking up -- collection of GST and consumption of electricity, said former RBI governor, C Rangarajan.
The government has been pressing citizens to pay taxes and be compliant, but they have very little to show regarding improved efficiencies in the companies they themselves own, the fund managers said.
With the unanticipated floods across Tamil Nadu catching the unprepared administration unawares, Stalin finds that some of the early positives that had rubbed on his initiatives have been lost, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
"The Union Budget represents the aspirations of 130 crore Indians and lays out the path towards India's development. I invite you all to share your ideas and suggestions for this year's Budget on MyGov," the PM said according to a statement posted on his official website on Thursday.
The council wants the government to stick to its fiscal consolidation road map.
'The growth drivers are mostly invisible, but the growth is undeniable at least for now,' notes Debashis Basu.
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