After a sharp outperformance in the mid-and small-cap segments in the first half of calendar year 2023 (H1-CY23), analysts are now turning cautious on these two market segments and suggest investors stay selective and look for valuation comfort and earnings visibility before investing. The S&P BSE Midcap index has surged 13.7 per cent in H1-CY23, and the S&P BSE Small-cap index gained 12.7 per cent during this period, data shows. The S&P BSE Sensex, in comparison, has moved up 6.4 per cent.
Retail investment demand for gold bars and coins as well as central bank purchases pushed the global gold demand by 28 per cent to 1,181.5 tonnes in the September quarter, according to the World Gold Council report. The total global demand stood at 921.9 tonnes during the July-September quarter of 2021, the World Gold Council's 'Gold Demand Trends Q3 2022' showed on Tuesday. Investment was down 47 per cent year-on-year as gold backed Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) investors responded to a challenging combination of higher interest rates and a strong US dollar with significant outflows of 227 tonnes.
Growth in India is expected to slow to 6.3 per cent in FY 2023/24 (April-March), a 0.3 percentage point downward revision from January, the World Bank said Tuesday but noted there is an unexpected resilience in private consumption and investment and robust growth in the services. The World Bank made these points in its latest edition of Global Economic Prospects according to which global growth is projected to decelerate from 3.1 per cent in 2022 to 2.1 per cent in 2023. In Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) other than China, growth is set to slow to 2.9 per cent this year from 4.1 per cent last year. These forecasts reflect broad-based downgrades.
What's different this time is that global financial stress -- which has its genesis in four policy choices made in recent years -- is juxtaposed with a more resilient real economy, observes Sajjid Z Chinoy, chief India economist at J P Morgan.
Equity benchmarks pared initial gains to end lower on Friday, recording their third day of decline, amid weak trend in IT counters. The 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 452.90 points or 0.75 per cent to settle at 59,900.37. During the day, it tanked 683.36 points or 1.13 per cent to 59,669.91.
After rising for five consecutive weeks, India's forex kitty dropped $571 million to $563.5 billion for the week ended December 16, according to RBI data released on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had swelled $2.91 billion to $564.06 billion, making it the fifth straight week of an increase in the kitty after a protracted decline. In October 2021, the country's foreign exchange kitty had reached an all-time high of $645 billion.
After three consecutive years of infusing huge funds, foreign portfolio investors retreated from the Indian equity markets in a big way in 2022 with the highest-ever yearly net outflow of nearly Rs 1.21 lakh crore. The huge outflow, which surpasses by a big margin the previous record of Rs 53,000 crore net withdrawal in 2008, came amid aggressive rate hikes by central banks globally but 2023 is expected to be better on positivity about overall macroeconomic trends in India, experts said. Apart from global monetary tightening, volatile crude, rising commodity prices along with Russia and Ukraine conflict led to an exodus of foreign money in 2022.
Housing finance major HDFC and state-run Punjab National Bank on Tuesday announced up to 25 basis points increase in their lending interest rates, making their new and old loans expensive for consumers. The revised rates would be effective from March 1. Mortgage lender HDFC has increased its retail prime lending rate by 25 basis points to a minimum of 9.20 per cent.
India's GDP growth will slow down to 5.5 per cent in FY24 from the 6.9 per cent expected in the current fiscal 2022-23, a Swiss brokerage said on Wednesday. The slowdown was attributed to slowing global growth and tightening of monetary policies in the report by economists at UBS India. It said India will be among the "lesser affected economies" in the world, but made it clear that the world's fifth largest economy is not immune from global headwinds.
The turmoil in the markets has been cited as the reason for the dip in the IPO market.
'Earnings will be the catalyst for markets to march higher from here on out.'
The Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel will start its 3-day deliberations on Wednesday amid expectations of yet another rate hike of 50 basis points to check high inflation, in line with similar actions taken by other major central banks, including the US Fed. Based on the recommendations of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the RBI had effected 50 basis points increase in repo rate each in June and August after raising the short-term lending rate by 40 basis points in an off-cycle decision in May. The MPC, headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, is scheduled to meet during September 28-30.
The sharp rally in the markets thus far in fiscal 2023-24 (FY24) has left analysts struggling to find investment-worthy themes. The S&P BSE Sensex has surged nearly 7 per cent thus far in FY24 and hit a fresh 52-week high of 63,601.71 levels on June 22, mostly led by foreign institutional (FII) flows. "The Indian market has seen a broad rally in the past few months but headline indices have seen more modest performance. "We are not very clear about the reasons for the rally and the divergent performance and struggle to find ideas in the consumption, investment and outsourcing sectors after the sharp run-up in several of our favored sectors and stocks in the past two months," wrote Sanjeev Prasad, co-head, Kotak Institutional Equities, in a recent co-authored note with Anindya Bhowmik and Sunita Baldawa.
The domestic equity market on Thursday snapped the five-day losing streak as the benchmark Sensex recouped its lost ground and closed 78 points higher on fag-end value buying in banking, energy and financial stocks. A positive opening in the European market helped the investor sentiments even as clouds hovered over the health of the global banking system amid Credit Suisse woes and bank failures in the US. Halting its five-day losing streak, the 30-share BSE benchmark rose 78.94 points or 0.14 per cent to close at 57,634.84 points, with 17 of its constituents ending in the green.
India's forex reserves rose by $2.908 billion to $564.06 billion for the week ended on December 9, according to the Reserve Bank data released on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had soared by $11 billion to $561.16 billion. This is the fifth consecutive week of an increase in the reserves.
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained its inflation projection for current fiscal year at 6.7 per cent amid global geopolitical developments triggered by Russia-Ukraine war. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the impact of inflation globally is weighing heavily on the domestic market. For September quarter of 2022-23, RBI projected retail inflation at 7.1 per cent.
Retail inflation dropped marginally to 7.01 per cent in June mainly due to slight easing in prices of vegetables and pulses, though it still remained above the Reserve Bank's comfort level for the sixth month in a row. The consumer price index (CPI) based inflation stood at 7.04 per cent in the preceding month of May and 6.26 per cent in June 2021. Inflation in the food basket in June 2022 was 7.75 per cent, compared to 7.97 per cent in the previous month, as per the National Statistical Office (NSO) data released on Tuesday.
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee brainstormed the impact of any future shocks on the inflation trajectory and stressed monitoring the cumulative effect of monetary policy actions over the past one year, which is still unfolding, revealed minutes of the rate-setting panel released on Thursday. The minutes of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, also indicated it would be premature to declare an end to the monetary tightening cycle, which started in May 2022 to check high inflation following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. The central bank, which effected six back-to-back hikes in the key short-term lending rate (repo) since May 2022 to check high inflation, decided to take a pause early this month.
The Reserve Bank of India on Monday gave banks time till end of December 2023 to complete renewal of agreements for the existing safe deposit lockers of customers. Banks were earlier required to complete the process by January 01, 2023. The central bank has asked them to complete work in phases with intermediate milestones of 50 per cent by June 30, and 75 per cent by September 30.
Public sector banks' cumulative profit crossed the Rs 1 lakh crore-mark in the financial year ended March 2023, with market leader State Bank of India (SBI) accounting for nearly half of the total earnings. From posting a total net loss of Rs 85,390 crore in 2017-18, the Public Sector Banks (PSBs) have come a long way as their profit touched Rs 1,04,649 crore in 2022-23, according to an analysis of their financial results. These 12 PSBs witnessed 57 per cent increase in total profit compared to Rs 66,539.98 crore earned in 2021-22.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das kept the red flag on cryptocurrencies flying, warning that the next financial crisis can be triggered by private cryptocurrencies if such speculative instruments are allowed to grow.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday raised the benchmark lending rate by 35 basis points to 6.25 per cent in a bid to tame inflation, which has remained above its tolerance level for the past 11 months. With the latest hike, the repo rate or the short-term lending rate at which banks borrow from the central bank now has crossed 6 per cent. This is the fifth consecutive rate hike after a 40 basis points increase in May and 50 basis points hike each in June, August and September.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday retained its growth projection at 7.2 per cent for the current fiscal on the back of improvement in urban demand and gradual recovery in rural India. Unveiling the third monetary policy for the current fiscal, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Indian economy remained resilient, and the central bank will continue to support growth. The RBI expects growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal at 16.2 per cent, which will taper to 4 per cent by the fourth quarter.
The Reserve Bank's rate setting panel on Thursday met to finalise a report for the government on why it failed to keep retail inflation below the target of 6 per cent for three consecutive quarters since January this year, said sources. The report will be presented to the government as per the Reserve Bank of India Act, they added. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is headed by Governor Shaktikanta Das.
Retail inflation fell to an 11-month low of 5.88 per cent in November, mainly due to softening prices of food items, official data showed on Monday. This is the first time in 11 months that the retail inflation print has come within RBI's tolerance band of 4 (+/- 2) per cent. The consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation was 6.77 per cent in October 2022, and 4.91 per cent in November last year.
Foreign ministers of G20 major economies will meet in the national capital on March 1 and 2 to deliberate on pressing global challenges amid escalating confrontation between Russia and the West over the Ukraine conflict that entered the second year this week.
Modi was honoured with the 'Order of Zayed', the UAE's highest civilian award, in 2019 as a mark of appreciation for his efforts to boost bilateral ties between the two nations.
Indices across Indian equity markets have edged towards new record highs before undergoing a small correction in the past few sessions. The National Stock Exchange Nifty has gained 20 per cent in the past year; mid-caps (up 33 per cent), small-caps (up 31 per cent), and micro-caps (up 44 per cent) have done better. Several factors have precipitated this rally.
Why did the company zero in on RBL Bank to understand the business of banking? While the M&M investors heaved a sigh of relief, one gentleman must have been all smiles after this, RBL Bank MD and CEO R Subramaniakumar, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The criticism that the Reserve Bank of India was behind the curve in hiking interest rate to tame rising inflation is unfair, former RBI Governor D Subbarao said on Wednesday and asserted that it is difficult for any central bank to anticipate the future more accurately. Earlier this month, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the central bank's rate-setting panel, surprised the markets with a 40 basis points hike in repo rate in an off-cycle policy meeting. It was also the first rate hike after August 2018, amid spiralling inflation.
The country's foreign exchange reserves declined by $7.541 billion to $572.712 billion in the week ended July 15 as the Reserve Bank continued to intervene in the market to curb the fall of the rupee. In the previous week ended July 8, the reserves shrunk by $8.06 billion to $580.25 billion, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed on Friday. On Friday, the rupee fell by 5 paise to close at 79.90 against the US dollar.
'India is an equity market with a breadth and depth of companies to invest in.'
After a tumultuous past few days that almost halved value of the Adani group, embattled tycoon Gautam Adani-led conglomerate had some pressure eased on Friday as two global rating firms stuck with their calls on its credit profile and its French partner backed its investments in the group firms. Also for the first time since January 24, shares of the group's flagship firm Adani Enterprises ended in positive territory after erasing an intraday loss of 35 per cent. Adani Ports and SEZ also ended 8 per cent higher. This is after a over $100-billion rout in value of group stock since the US short seller Hindenburg Research accused Adani group of stock manipulation and accounting fraud.
Tata Steel was the biggest gainer in the Sensex chart, rising 2.39 per cent, followed by Tata Motors, Power Grid, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement, NTPC, Nestle, HUL, Mahindra & Mahindra, Wipro, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Asian Paints. In contrast, Bajaj Finance, IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finserv, ICICI Bank, Infosys and Titan were among the laggards.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has increased its gold purchases, as part of its foreign exchange (forex) reserves. In the first half (H1) of calendar year 2021 (CY21), the addition of gold to India's forex reserves has been the highest - on a half-yearly basis -at 29 tonnes. Now, the RBI's gold holding - as a proportion of its forex reserves - has for the first time crossed 700 tonnes.
India's economy is projected to slow to 6.5 per cent in the fiscal year starting April but will remain the fastest growing major economy in the world as it fared better in dealing with the extraordinary set of challenges the globe has faced, the Economic Survey 2022-23 said on Tuesday. India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.5 per cent in 2023-24 compares with an estimated 7 per cent expansion in current fiscal year (April 2022 to March 2023) and 8.7 per cent in the previous year. Like the rest of the world, India too faced an extraordinary set of challenges in tightening financial conditions and supply chain disruptions from a prolonged war in Europe but "withstood them better than most economies", the annual document detailing the state of the economy said.
Mutual funds (MFs) invested a record Rs 1.73 trillion in equities in the financial year 2022-23 (FY23), providing strong support to the Indian markets at a time when foreign investors were redeeming their holdings. They exceeded the previous high of nearly Rs 1.72 trillion investment in equities in FY22. The data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) shows MFs were net buyers in the equity market in eleven of the twelve months last financial year.
Investors have scaled back their allocation to equities as pessimism has reached "dire" levels due to cloudy economic outlook, according to the latest Bank of America (BofA) monthly global fund manager survey that covered nearly 300 money managers with combined assets of $800 billion. The survey showed that the expectations for global growth and profits are at all-time lows and cash levels are at highest since the 9/11 attacks. Interest rate hikes by central banks, the unwinding of an easy monetary regime, disruptions in global supply chains, and fears of recession have heightened market volatility since the beginning of the year.
India's foreign exchange reserves soared by $11.02 billion to reach $561.162 billion for the week ended December 2, Reserve Bank data showed on Friday. This is the fourth consecutive week of rise in the reserves. In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had grown by $2.9 billion to $550.14 billion. For the week ended November 11, the forex kitty had jumped by $14.72 billion in its second fastest weekly acceleration ever.
India's foreign exchange reserves dropped by $1.087 billion to stand at $529.99 billion for the week ended November 4 on a sharp decline in gold reserves, the Reserve Bank said on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the reserves had swelled by $6.561 billion to reach $531.08 billion, making it the biggest weekly jump in a year. In October 2021, the country's forex kitty had reached an all-time high of $645 billion.
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