'Top lines will grow, volume growth will be there, but margins might also be impacted.'
Members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) felt that though the Indian economy was resilient in the third wave, it, however, lost some momentum and with inflation likely to soften, there is room to continue with the accommodative stance and support revival, the minutes of the MPC meeting released on Thursday revealed. The six-member MPC voted to keep the policy rate unchanged and continued with the accommodative stance at its meeting on February 10. However, external member Jayanth Verma voted against the stance because he felt a switch to neutral was long overdue and the current stance has become counterproductive and deflects focus away from addressing recessionary trends that date back to at least 2019.
Analysts are bullish on consumption and investment themes.
Admitting that credit growth is "very low" given the size and growth rate of the economy, the Reserve Bank on Wednesday said for both the numbers to match, "the very very wide output gap" has to close. The central bank also clarified that low credit growth does not necessarily mean low credit flow to the economy, or choking of credit to the system, as bank credit growth numbers that the central bank publishes regularly represent only the outstanding credit in the system. Output gap means due to poor demand conditions, companies are unable run their plant at full installed capacity or, in a larger sense, an economy is not producing optimally as the demand is missing.
Six consecutive profitable quarters after an equal number of losses - for Bharti Airtel, the turnaround has been quick. But it is not a result of higher tariffs or absence of exceptional items alone. Execution and strategy are playing a part, too. Bharti Airtel's chief executive officer Gopal Vittal summed it up in a post-result conference call last month. "We track the profit in each of our 237,500 (cell) sites.
IndusInd Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, spurting over 5 per cent, followed by Bajaj Finserv, HCL Tech, Bajaj Finance, Kotak Bank and Axis Bank. NSE Nifty jumped 203.15 points to 17,780.00.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed India's economic growth projection for 2022 to 7.7 per cent, saying that rising interest rates, uneven monsoon, and slowing global growth will dampen economic momentum on a sequential basis.
The company will move swiftly to consolidate its recent acquisition of three distilleries and will also take a decision on setting up a Rs 650-crore two-furnace glass plant in Andhra Pradesh, said sources.
7 key areas that the Budget must address to re-energise the infrastructure sector, suggests Vinayak Chatterjee.
These could include strengthening the public-private partnership (PPP) dispute resolution mechanism, uniform PPP institutional framework, easier terms for infrastructure companies accessing bond markets, and tax sops, Business Standard has learnt. Investment in infrastructure projects with high multiplier effect has been the Centre's main plank to revive the economy, create employment and boost consumption.
With a robust outlook for mineral-led growth in India, Anil Agarwal-led Vedanta Limited is looking to invest up to $20 billion across its businesses, which includes doubling of silver production and steel capacities. In a virtual press conference had last month, Agarwal said the company planned a capex of $5 billion over a period of three years. The company has not given a timeline for $20-billion investment.
The finance minister has stayed true to her commitment to fiscal consolidation, even though the pace of the decline in the deficit could have been faster, notes A K Bhattacharya.
'When the average growth in the last three years was just 2.5%, how does that make us the fastest growing country?' 'They only tell you what has happened in the last 2 years; they are not taking into account what happened in FY21 on account of their mistakes.'
'We can go somewhere between 35 per cent and 40 per cent.'
The government is planning to merge Bharat Broadband Nigam Limited (BBNL) with the loss-making state-run telecom operator Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL) this month, a senior official has said. BSNL chairman and managing director PK Purwar at a recent event organised by the All India Graduate Engineers and Telecom officers Association (AIGETOA) said that the government is giving the telecom firm an opportunity for a turnaround. "The government has taken a policy decision that BBNL is going to be merged into BSNL. "This means all work of BBNL at the pan-India level is going to come to BSNL," Purwar said at the All India Conference of AIGETOA on March 13.
Despite the Sensex's 74 per cent run-up over the past year, the Indian equity market could still reward investors if the expected revival in earnings materialises, according to market experts. Returns during the coming year are more likely to be in line with longer-term trends (the Sensex's five-year return is around 14 per cent). Several factors are expected to aid the market's performance this year.
'The fiscal pressure will be there, but the intent of the government behind this move is to spur demand and growth.'
Striking a different note from its peers, US brokerage Bank of America Securities has maintained that the Reserve Bank will leave rates unchanged next week, recognising growth-focused and capex-driven fiscal expansion, which though poses huge price pressure and interest rate risks later. The RBI's rate setting panel Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will begin its deliberations next Monday and announce the policy moves on Wednesday (February 9) in the backdrop of a massive spike in bond yields post the Budget. Almost all major central banks are in the process of hiking rates to tame inflation.
A hallmark of some new businesses today is that they seek to use the brute force of capital, combined with smart technology and operations, to create new needs that you didn't even know existed, the chairman of Aditya Birla group said in a blog post on the trends for the new year.
The Indian economy is rapidly normalising towards pre-pandemic activity levels, even as uncertainty exists about coronavirus mutations and repeated infection waves, industrialist Kumar Mangalam Birla said on Wednesday. Vaccination is picking up pace, which would improve India's resilience against a potential third wave, the chairman of Aditya Birla Group said while virtually addressing shareholders at the AGM of group firm UltraTech Cement Ltd. Moreover, various steps taken by the RBI and the government have helped in containing the economic disruptions of the pandemic, Birla added.
With the spectrum auction now delayed till at least next May, the expected 5G orders for telecom equipment have not been sealed, the companies point out. Surajeet Das Gupta reports.
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Reliance Industries Ltd's (RIL) rating to 'BBB', one notch above India's sovereign rating, as the company benefits from cash flow generation across diversified business segments and continuation of deleveraging. In a statement, Fitch said it has upgraded RIL's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) to 'BBB', from 'BBB-', with a negative outlook. At the same time, the agency has affirmed RIL's long-term local-currency IDR at 'BBB+' with a stable outlook.
According to GHIAL chief executive officer P S Nair, the company is also introducing austerity measures to reduce cost of operations by 15-20 per cent besides exploring other sources of revenue. During the first six months of the current financial year, domestic traffic from the new airport has declined by 7.7 per cent to 2.49 million from 2.7 million in the corresponding period last year (from Begumpet airport).
This comes at a time when the COVID-19 crisis is expected to derail the government's revenue maths for 2020-21, hitting the mop-up from sources such as taxes and divestment.
The Budget, to be presented on February 1, is likely to be less worried about fiscal deficit and will be focused more on nursing the fragile growth, according to a Wall Street brokerage report. Bank of America Securities India expects the budget to peg "fiscal deficit at a high 5 per cent of GDP for FY22 and 7.2 per cent for FY21, as it is likely to step up capex, recap public sector banks, push asset sales to break government monopolies, offer sops for real estate, tax cuts for lower income groups and creation of a bad bank". Its house economists expect these spends to be funded by debt and partly by imposing a cess on high income groups and also by some non-fiscal measures like tapping the central bank's revaluation reserves and bank recapitalisation and infra bonds.
'The IPO market is cooling off and getting a reality check.'
Investors have scaled back their allocation to equities as pessimism has reached "dire" levels due to cloudy economic outlook, according to the latest Bank of America (BofA) monthly global fund manager survey that covered nearly 300 money managers with combined assets of $800 billion. The survey showed that the expectations for global growth and profits are at all-time lows and cash levels are at highest since the 9/11 attacks. Interest rate hikes by central banks, the unwinding of an easy monetary regime, disruptions in global supply chains, and fears of recession have heightened market volatility since the beginning of the year.
'Earning expectations remain strong.'
India, he said, has already taken a host of reforms in banking and other sectors and is now focussing on stepping up public investment. "Compared to other nations, even among advanced countries, I think India is relatively better placed for the simple reason that India paid a certain price last decade... we had a banking system stress which was then compounded by stress in the non-banking financial sector towards 2018," he said at Amazon Smbhav Summit.
'It's important that every portfolio is well diversified.' 'My own portfolio is diversified across asset classes: 50% is in equity funds, 15% in international schemes, 25% in debt funds and 10% in sovereign gold bonds.'
To make possible discretionary spending including capex and that on welfare, the government decided to borrow more than planned in FY21 -- Rs 12.7 trillion.
Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday exuded confidence that inflation would further decline and the government is on track to meet its budgetary target for deficit and said that there is no fear of stagflation in India. Replying to the debate on first batch of Supplementary Demands for Grants 2022-23 in Lok Sabha, the finance minister said inflation has come down and it is now in the tolerable band of the RBI. Inflation has been declining since April 2022 and it is declining further, she said.
This Budget is an interesting cocktail of growth orientation with inclusiveness and fiscal prudence. When one looks beyond the numbers, at the overall direction, there are distinct trends.
After three consecutive years of infusing huge funds, foreign portfolio investors retreated from the Indian equity markets in a big way in 2022 with the highest-ever yearly net outflow of nearly Rs 1.21 lakh crore. The huge outflow, which surpasses by a big margin the previous record of Rs 53,000 crore net withdrawal in 2008, came amid aggressive rate hikes by central banks globally but 2023 is expected to be better on positivity about overall macroeconomic trends in India, experts said. Apart from global monetary tightening, volatile crude, rising commodity prices along with Russia and Ukraine conflict led to an exodus of foreign money in 2022.
Of the 23 companies, eight have raised funds after Shark Tank India.
Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran on Tuesday said India is not defending the rupee and the Reserve Bank of India is taking necessary steps to ensure that the movement of the rupee is gradual and in line with market trends. Nageswaran further said that the rupee is being managed in a manner that reflects the fundamentals of the economy. "India is not defending the rupee... I don't think Indian fundamentals are such that we need to defend the rupee. "The rupee can take care of itself," he said at an event in New Delhi.
The RBI on Wednesday cautioned that while the Indian economy appears capable of weathering the deterioration in geopolitical conditions amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, it faces headwinds from global spillovers from geopolitical tensions, elevated commodity prices and moderating external demand. The RBI, however, did not tinker with the GDP growth projection made in April. It had slashed the GDP growth projection for the fiscal 2022-23 to 7.2 per cent from its earlier forecast of 7.8 per cent.
ONGC will invest Rs 35,049.23 crore (Rs 350.49 billion) in 2013-14 as compared to revised capital expenditure of Rs 33,577 crore (Rs 335.77 billion) in the current fiscal, according to the 2013-14 General Budget documents.
India's inflation trajectory in the coming months will be influenced more by the geo-political situation due to the war in Europe and its impact on supply chains and commodity prices. However, the country is better placed than most to "weather the storm" and achieve growth of close to 8 per cent in the current fiscal year, the finance ministry said in its latest monthly economic report on Thursday. "Through the channel of imports, elevated global crude and edible oil prices now have a significant impact on India's inflation outlook. "Government measures to keep the prices of these commodities in check, along with the recent hike in policy rates by the RBI, are expected to temper inflationary pressures in the economy," the monthly economic report for April, drafted by the finance ministry's economic division, said.
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