Embattled Adani group has appointed accountancy firm Grant Thornton for an independent audit of some of its companies in a bid to come clean of the damning allegations levelled by the US short-seller Hindenburg Research and to assure investors and regulators. Sources said the audit is primarily to show to regulators like the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that the group has nothing to hide and it is in compliance with relevant laws. The audit will specifically look into if there was any misappropriation or repatriation of funds and if loans were used for any purpose other than the one they were intended for.
Shortages of chips will impact the car market
Rating agencies Crisil and Icra on Monday revised down their India growth projections for the current fiscal and the second quarter mainly due to the ripple effect of slowdown in global growth and mixed crop output. Crisil downgraded the India growth forecast by 30 bps to 7 per cent while Icra pegged the economic expansion at 6.5 per cent for the second quarter of FY2022-23. "We have revised down our forecast for real gross domestic product growth to 7 per cent for fiscal 2023 from 7.3 per cent, primarily because of the slowdown in global growth that has started to impact our exports and industrial activity.
Shares of telecom services providers - Reliance Industries (parent of Reliance Jio), Bharti Airtel, and Vodafone Idea - have shed up to 23 per cent so far in the current calendar year as growth in the wireless subscriber segment begins to plateau amid higher tariffs and rising costs of smartphones. By comparison, the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex, and sectoral index BSE Telecom have dipped 1.8 per cent, and 12.6 per cent, respectively, ACE Equity data shows. However, analysts expect the trend to reverse soon as telecom services providers focus on the next leg of growth -- fixed broadband (FBB) segment.
'It is building the country's infrastructure, and delivering it very efficiently.'
The Centre and states are likely to budget for higher market borrowings to the tune of Rs 2.3 lakh crore next fiscal even though the Union budget may peg a lower-than-expected fiscal deficit for the Centre at 5.8 per cent of GDP, says a report. Icra Ratings anticipates higher redemptions will lead to gross market borrowings of the Centre to rise to Rs 14.8 lakh crore and of the states to jump by Rs 1.6 lakh crore to Rs 9.6 lakh crore, taking the combined borrowings (of the Centre and the states) to Rs 24.4 lakh crore in FY2024, up by 2.3 lakh crore from FY23 combined. In FY23, the Centre's gross borrowings are budgeted at Rs 14.1 lakh crore and of the states at Rs 8 lakh crore, or a combined borrowing of Rs 22.1 lakh crore, according to the agency.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday pitched for front loading of capital expenditure, saying it is critical for revitalisting the economy post the coronavirus pandemic. During a virtual meeting with senior government officials to discuss the infrastructure roadmap ahead, she also asked ministries to aim to achieve more than their capital expenditure (capex) targets. The Union Budget 2021-22 provided a capital outlay of Rs.5.54 lakh crore, a sharp increase of 34.5 per cent over the Budget Estimate of 2020-21.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will be presenting her fifth Budget that may do a tightrope walk between staying fiscally prudent and meeting general public expectations of lower taxes and a wider social security net, while at the same time firing the engines of the economy.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent and decided to continue with its accommodative stance despite rising inflation. This is the 11th time in a row that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has maintained the status quo. RBI had last revised its policy repo rate or the short-term lending rate on May 22, 2020 in an off-policy cycle to perk up demand by cutting the interest rate to a historic low.
Equity benchmark BSE Sensex closed at an all-time high of 62,272.68 on Thursday, tracking a firm trend in global markets after the US Fed minutes indicated a slower pace of rate increase that bolstered investors' sentiment. Extending its rally to the third straight day, the 30-share BSE benchmark rallied 762.10 points or 1.24 per cent to settle at 62,272.68, its record closing peak. During the day, it jumped 901.75 points or 1.46 per cent to its lifetime high of 62,412.33.he broader NSE Nifty gained 216.85 points or 1.19 per cent to end at 18,484.10.
The first spending item on the chopping block is capital expenditure, followed by operating costs and overheads, including sales and marketing expenses.
The central government is likely to further consolidate its fiscal deficit by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.9 per cent in FY24 from 6.4 per cent in FY23, according to a recent report released by Goldman Sachs on Tuesday. In the current fiscal year, there is going to be an upside of 0.5 per cent on the receipts side due to higher nominal GDP growth, and higher tax buoyancy because of the formalisation, the report said. The upside to expenditure is mainly going to come from incremental subsidies (0.8 per cent of GDP), in both food and fertilizer, it said. The upcoming pre-election Budget will carry forward the trend of the increased capital expenditure seen in recent years.
The cement sector may be looking at better realisations and higher volume offtake going by the trends of the October-December quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q3FY23), a recent price hike, and the promise of a continued infrastructure thrust in FY24. In Q3, revenues rose by an aggregate of 17 per cent year-on-year (YoY), but Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) per tonne, fell by 14 per cent YoY while profit after tax (PAT) rose by 23 per cent YoY. Expenses were up 30 per cent per tonne YoY - power and fuel costs in particular - and that's no surprise given the rise in fossil fuel prices.
The government will seek Parliament's approval for Rs 37,000-crore additional spending on infrastructure development in the second batch of supplementary demands for grant. Earlier this month, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had announced additional budget of Rs 25,000 crore as capital expenditure (capex) on roads, defence, water supply, urban development and domestically produced capital equipment. Besides, the central government approved issuance of a special interest-free 50-year loan to states of Rs 12,000 crore for infrastructure development.
Vedanta investors were jittery on Tuesday as its share price fell and bond yields of its parent firm rose following concerns raised by a rating agency on its capability to repay debt maturing later this year. Shares of the mining and metals major were down by 7 per cent on Tuesday to Rs 268 a piece on the BSE. The company has lost market valuation of 30 per cent in the last one year and 13 per cent since January 1 this year. Yields on the bonds of Vedanta Resources, the parent firm of the BSE-listed Vedanta, shot up to 39.8 per cent - showing investors' rising concern over the group's debt situation
The cement industry continues to present a puzzle to investors.
Bank credit is likely to grow at a four-year high of 11-12 per cent in fiscal 2023, on the back of better economic growth and budgetary support from the government, according to a report. In the fiscal ended March 2022, bank advances have likely grown at 9-10 per cent. "Healthy economic growth and budgetary support from the government should lift bank credit growth by 200-300 basis points to 11-12 per cent this fiscal," Crisil Ratings said in the report. The higher credit growth expectation is also supported by the improved resilience of the banking system, it added.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), the market regulator, has said, in a submission to the Supreme Court, that it is "enquiring" into the allegations made by American short-seller Hindenburg Research against the Adani Group of companies and its impact on the markets. In the same matter, the central government has agreed to form an expert committee to strengthen the regulatory regime in order to ensure that market investors are protected. The Supreme Court had last week suggested an expert committee to look into the allegations and had asked the Centre for its response.
It would be a difficult task for the Indian economy to reach the $5-trillion mark a year before the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projection of 2026-27. Pankaj Chaudhary, minister of state for finance, said in the Rajya Sabha on Tuesday that the government is taking steps to make the country a $5-trillion economy at a date earlier than the IMF's projection. In that context, it would not be difficult to meet the projection in the third quarter of FY27.
S&P Global Ratings on Thursday said about half of the Indian companies that it rates are getting a boost in their core profitability from rupee depreciation. "Much of our rated India corporate portfolio has sizable US-dollar linked revenue and, therefore, is not exposed to rupee depreciation. "This encompasses entities in the IT, metals, and chemicals sectors. About half of the firms we rate are getting an EBITDA boost from currency weakening," the US-based rating agency said in a report.
Finance Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday asked various ministries to try to spend more than their capital expenditure targets as well as explore public private partnerships for viable projects. During a meeting with senior government officials to discuss the infrastructure roadmap, she also urged the ministries and their CPSEs to ensure clearance of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) dues at the earliest. This was the fifth review meeting by the finance minister with ministries and departments on the infrastructure roadmap.
'After 2011-2012, both our investment rate and savings savings rate have declined. 'Correspondingly, the savings rate in the economy as percentage of GDP, also has come down.'
'Short term volatility is likely due to various factors, global and domestic; investors may use this as an opportunity to increase the allocation to equities.'
Foreign currency loans raised by Indian companies nosedived to $210 million in the September quarter (Q2), 93.3 per cent less than the year-ago period when five firms raised $3.1 billion. The Q2 amount is the lowest since December 2003 quarter when India Inc raised $191 million. Companies cited volatility in the currency markets, sharp rise in interest rates in the United States, and fund availability in India as the main reasons behind the sharp fall.
Following are the highlights of the RBI's first monetary policy statement of 2022-23 unveiled by Governor Shaktikanta Das: Policy repo rate unchanged at 4%; marginal standing facility rate & bank rate too remain unchanged at 4.25%. Monetary stance to be accommodative with focus on withdrawal of accommodation to keep inflation within target. GDP growth projection for FY'23 slashed to 7.2% from 7.8%; growth projections based on assumption of crude oil (Indian basket) price at $100 a barrel during FY'23. Inflation forecast hiked to 5.7% for FY'23 from 4.5%.
After a tumultuous past few days that almost halved value of the Adani group, embattled tycoon Gautam Adani-led conglomerate had some pressure eased on Friday as two global rating firms stuck with their calls on its credit profile and its French partner backed its investments in the group firms. Also for the first time since January 24, shares of the group's flagship firm Adani Enterprises ended in positive territory after erasing an intraday loss of 35 per cent. Adani Ports and SEZ also ended 8 per cent higher. This is after a over $100-billion rout in value of group stock since the US short seller Hindenburg Research accused Adani group of stock manipulation and accounting fraud.
Engineering giant Larsen & Toubro (L&T) is looking to divest its exposure to road and power concessions and incubate digital and e-commerce businesses as part of its new five-year plan ending 2025-26 (FY26). The base year for the plan is 2020-21 (FY21). The blueprint, called Lakshya 2026, is intended to help the company exit sub-scale businesses, concentrate on high-technology (tech) manufacturing, construction and green energy projects, and increase its share from information technology (IT) and digital services. The lending operations of the financial services business, meanwhile, will be reorganised, with focus on retail lending.
Bharti Airtel's fund raising is expected to strengthen its competitive positioning in the market and provide the telco with the necessary ammunition for aggressive 5G rollout, analysts said. The capital raising announcement, though unexpected and surprising, would enable Airtel to enhance its market share and provides it wherewithal to make faster investment in a scenario India moves to a two-player market earlier than expected, some analysts felt. Bharti Airtel's board on Sunday approved raising up to Rs 21,000 crore by way of rights issue at a price of Rs 535 per share.
Stock market investors are expecting a balanced Budget with a focus on job creation, increased spending on infrastructure, reigning in the deficit, and bringing the economy back on track, experts said on Wednesday. Stock markets have been subdued in the run-up to the Union Budget with BSE's benchmark Sensex is almost flat so far this month. Even the corporate earning season failed to excite the markets, while some indices like IT and bankex have seen some positive movements.
Instead of conceding the demand for a cut in personal income-tax rates, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman should phase out many exemptions in both personal and corporation taxes, suggests A K Bhattacharya.
PSU divestment, LIC IPO, fiscal deficit: Budget 2021 marks a clear change in the Modi government's stance from fiscal conservatism to growth orientation.
India's current account deficit is expected to deteriorate in the current fiscal on account of costlier imports and tepid merchandise exports, according to the Finance Ministry's monthly economic review. The review released on Thursday by the ministry also said that global headwinds would continue to pose a downside risk to growth as crude oil and edibles, which have driven inflation in India, remain major imported components in the consumption basket. For the present, it said, "their global prices have softened, as fears of recession have dampened prices somewhat. This would weaken inflationary pressures in India and rein in inflation."
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent and decided to continue with its accommodative stance against the backdrop of an elevated level of inflation.
Fitch Ratings on Monday cautioned that the Indian government has little fiscal headroom at its disposal to respond to possible shocks to growth given the country's lowest investment grade credit rating with a negative outlook. "India's public debt/GDP ratio, at about 87 per cent in FY21, is well above the median of around 60% for 'BBB' rated sovereigns. "We revised the Outlook on India's rating to Negative, from Stable, in June 2020, partly owing to our assumptions about the impact of the pandemic on public finance metrics. "The government has little fiscal headroom at its current rating level to respond to possible shocks to growth," it said in a report.
Distribution yields could rise, but risk of Covid, higher interest rates remain.
Let's wait for the monetary policy on February 8 -- to see how it complements the fiscal commitments, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
India will grow at around 7.4 per cent in 2022-23 and continue at the same pace in the next year as well, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Friday. Sitharaman said there are risks on the external front and this is not the right time to throw caution to the wind, and also assured exporters of all the necessary support from the government as they face the headwinds. Speaking at the FE Best Bank Awards event here, Sitharaman said global agencies like IMF and the World Bank have taken cognisance of the strengths of the Indian economy by saying that it will be among the fastest growing ones in the next two years.
The forthcoming budget needs to delay fiscal consolidation, instead should focus more on supporting the pandemic battered-economy and boost consumption demand by offering income tax soaps and cutting fuel taxes, says a report. In a pre-budget report, India Ratings said it expects the new budget to consolidate and strengthen the plan set out in the last budget, rather than trying out new things by continue with the revenue and capital expenditure pattern of FY'22 to provide stability and consolidation to the past/ongoing efforts, and to focus on boosting demand by generating employment opportunities in areas/sectors that have been impacted more by the pandemic. The report therefore expects the finance minister to delay fiscal consolidation and make it to be a gradual and calibrated process, thus ensuring the necessary fiscal support that the economy needs is available till the recovery acquires its own momentum.
The Tata group is planning to invest $90 billion in new industries such as mobile components plant, semiconductor, electric vehicles, batteries, renewables energy and e-commerce by 2027. The Tata group's investment in India is far higher than the $75-billion investments planned by Mukesh Ambani-owned Reliance Industries and $55-billion investment planned by the Adani group in the next five years in the country, the Economist reported recently. The investment by the Tata group is a shift in its strategy to focus more in the home markets instead of international markets where the group lost money.
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