New Delhi has a chance to rid itself of its image as the bully in the subcontinent by helping a neighbour tackle problems that India, for once, has no role in creating. It should grab the opportunity with both hands, suggests Aditi Phadnis.
In the Ukraine-Russia conflict, reports from the war zone have suggested that the Ukrainians have extensively used anti-tank guided missiles to exploit the weakness of the Russian armoured vehicles and achieved significant success too.
Equity mutual funds attracted an all-time high net inflow of Rs 28,463 crore in March, on continued interest by retail and HNI investors, who used market correction as a good buying opportunity.
During an interactive session at the 'Ideas for India' conference in London on Friday, Gandhi not only mounted a scathing attack on the Bharatiya Janata Party government but also extended an olive branch to regional parties who he had angered with his comment that they were not capable of taking on the saffron party for want of ideology.
The government on Monday ruled out making public the RBI report detailing the reasons why the central bank could not keep inflation within the targeted 6 per cent upper limit for the three consecutive quarters. "Yes sir, RBI has furnished a report to the central government, as mandated under Section 45ZN of the RBI Act, 1934 and Regulation 7 of RBI Monetary Policy Committee and Monetary Policy process Regulations, 2016," minister of state for finance Pankaj Chaudhary said in a written reply. The said provisions of the RBI Act, 1934, and regulations therein does not provide for making the report public, he said.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty pared their early gains to close nearly 1 per cent lower on Monday as surging oil prices played spoilsport amid prolonged Russia-Ukraine war. The 30-share Sensex plunged by 571.44 points or 0.99 per cent to settle at 57,292.49. During the day, it tanked 634.85 points or 1.09 per cent to 57,229.08. The broader NSE Nifty declined by 169.45 points or 0.98 per cent to finish at 17,117.60. Among Sensex constituents, Power Grid, Asian Paints, UltraTech Cement, Nestle, Hindustan Unilever Limited and HCL Technologies were among the major laggards.
The Russia-Ukraine crisis, along with general bullishness in agricultural commodities, has ensured that after a fairly long time, most of the 24 commodities for which the Centre declares the minimum support price (MSP) are trading above it. The exceptions here are chana or gram and a few varieties of pulses. This might gladden the farmers, especially those who are still holding on to their stocks from the previous kharif harvest or are harvesting the latest rabi crop. But this could stoke retail and wholesale inflation.
Gold, the safest haven amid the ongoing uncertainty, also emerged as one of the most lucrative investment options in financial year 2022-23 with an impressive return of 16.1 per cent in rupee terms, and 2.3 per cent returns in dollars. And, had it not been for the very high inflow of smuggled gold and the huge discount prevailing in the market due to high prices, the returns in gold would have been much higher, analysts said. The precious metal has consistently been delivering positive returns in India since 2016.
India's manufacturing sector activities witnessed faster growth in April amid quicker increases in production as well as factory orders, and renewed expansion in international sales, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 54.0 in March to 54.7 in April, as a retreat of COVID-19 restrictions continued to support demand. The April PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the tenth straight month. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
'The actions of Indian monetary authorities will depend on how quickly they want the inflation to come down to 4 per cent.'
Automobile dispatches from factories to dealerships across the country declined 23 per cent in February, as various supply-side challenges, including semiconductor shortage, and rise in vehicle prices due to the implementation of new regulations continued to impact demand scenario, industry body SIAM said on Friday. Wholesales of domestic passenger vehicles, two-wheelers and three-wheelers declined 23 per cent to 13,28,027 units last month, compared with 17,35,909 units in February 2021. Overall, passenger vehicle dispatches in February 2022 declined six per cent to 262,984 units, compared with 281,380 units in the same month of last year.
'I'm pitching India for the strengths we offer, including the English language, engineers, doctors, nurses, professionals, innovative talent of startups.'
The Indian economy recovered from the Covid-induced downturn during 2022 and is poised for further improvement in the coming quarters though downside risks emanating from geopolitical tensions, strengthening dollar and elevated inflation will continue. The positive trajectory in the growth trend and improved fundamentals will help the nation in neutralising the impact of global headwinds which are expected to have a bearing on the country's exports in the months to come. The challenges before the government and the Reserve Bank in the new year would be to arrest inflation, check declining value of rupee against US dollar and promote private investment and growth, with a view to ensure that the country remains one the fastest growing major economies of the world.
About 56 million Indians may have plunged into extreme poverty in 2020 as a result of the pandemic, increasing the global tally by 71 million and making it the worst year for poverty reduction since World War II, according to fresh estimates by the World Bank. "The global goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030 is likely to be missed: By then, about 600 million people will remain in abject poverty. A major course correction is needed," Indermit Gill, chief economist at the World Bank, tweeted. The World Bank in its latest "Poverty and Shared Prosperity" made fresh estimates of poverty using a new extreme poverty line based on the purchasing power parity (PPP) of $2.15, the earlier one being at $1.9.
Given the prevailing uncertainties, investors must maintain a 10-15 per cent allocation to gold in 2023.
'Earning expectations remain strong.'
From the 30-share pack, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, TCS, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Wipro and HCL Technologies were among the major laggards in early trade. Nifty tumbled 314.95 points to 17,160.70.
Singh also said that Indian troops are standing firm braving extreme weather and hostile forces to defend the country's territorial integrity.
Days after Moody's cut its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for financial year 2022-23 (FY23) after the official GDP print for the June quarter came in lower than expectations, the global ratings agency said it would maintain its long-term sovereign debt credit rating and outlook on Asia's third-largest economy. "The credit profile of India reflects key strengths, including its large and diversified economy with high growth potential, a relatively strong external position, and a stable domestic financing base for government debt," Moody's said on Tuesday. "We do not expect rising challenges to the global economy, including the impact of the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, higher inflation, and the tightening financial conditions on the back of policy tightening, to derail India's ongoing recovery from the pandemic in 2022 and 2023," it said.
Investor wealth worth over Rs 13.44 lakh crore was wiped off on Thursday as the domestic equity markets tumbled along with global risk assets, after Russia launched military operations against Ukraine. Amid intensifying rout in the global financial markets, the 30-share BSE Sensex plummeted 2,702.15 points or 4.72 per cent to end at 54,529.91. The carnage on Dalal Street eroded investor wealth worth Rs 13,44,488.54 crore, taking the total market capitalisation (m-cap) to Rs 2,42,24,179.79 crore on the BSE.
India's economy is projected to slow to 6.5 per cent in the fiscal year starting April but will remain the fastest growing major economy in the world as it fared better in dealing with the extraordinary set of challenges the globe has faced, the Economic Survey 2022-23 said on Tuesday. India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.5 per cent in 2023-24 compares with an estimated 7 per cent expansion in current fiscal year (April 2022 to March 2023) and 8.7 per cent in the previous year. Like the rest of the world, India too faced an extraordinary set of challenges in tightening financial conditions and supply chain disruptions from a prolonged war in Europe but "withstood them better than most economies", the annual document detailing the state of the economy said.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said that the UK government remains committed to working "as quickly as possible" towards a successful conclusion to the ongoing free trade agreement (FTA) talks with India, as the majority of the substantive negotiation conversations were completed at the end of last month. At a House of Commons session on the G20 Summit in Indonesia on Thursday, the British Indian leader updated Parliament that he reviewed progress on the FTA during his first meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi since taking charge at 10 Downing Street. He was questioned by Opposition Labour Party Leader Keir Starmer and his own Conservative Party MPs on the timeline for the completion of the agreement with India.
India is deeply concerned over the spike in the price of oil due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and it is "breaking our back," External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has said. Addressing a joint press conference with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken after holding bilateral talks, Jaishankar on Tuesday said there is a very deep concern among developing countries about how their energy needs are addressed. Speaking about the Ukraine war, he said: "We have taken the position privately, publicly, confidentially and consistently that this conflict is not in anybody's interest."
The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel on Wednesday started discussions to firm up the next bi-monthly monetary policy amid expectations that it might retain status quo on interest rate but change its monetary policy stance amid rising inflation on account of geopolitical developments.
An escalation in the already simmering tensions between North and South Korea, China and Taiwan, and Russia and Ukraine could prove to be a bigger worry for the markets over the next few months rather than central bank policy action, said analysts. The markets, they said, are still not fully factoring in this possibility. "The conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia is another geopolitical worry.
Ahead of the Union Budget for 2023-24, Budget makers have welcomed the global consensus view that India will remain one of the bright spots in calendar year 2023. But there is some alarm over the grim global situation and how that might impact the Centre's projections and assessments for next financial year. The big global headwinds include a deep and sustained recession in the West, including India's biggest trading partners in North America and Europe, continuing volatility in commodity markets, and renewed Covid-19 fears, as lifting of strict curbs by China could potentially lead to a massive spread again.
'We should look at is full year's growth rather than quarter numbers.'
Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is expected to travel to India on September 5 on a three-day official visit during which defence cooperation and regional stability are likely to be the focus of her talks with Indian counterpart Narendra Modi, an official said on Monday.
'Continue with your SIPs to get the benefit of lower average prices in this challenging market environment.'
Queen Elizabeth II, who died aged 96 at her Balmoral Castle summer residence in Scotland on September 8, will be laid to rest at a state funeral at Westminster Abbey on September 19.
Besides high portfolio yield, investors may enjoy capital gains in debt funds in 2023 as bonds rally in anticipation of rate cuts.
Its association with India is over 70 years old and spans both civil and military aviation. The Douglas DC-3 transport aircraft used by the air force beginning the 1940s and the iconic Boeing 747 aircraft flown by Air India, both had Pratt & Whitney (P&W) engines. The Indian Air Force's present-day, heavy-lift C-17 Globemaster III and the yet-to-be-inducted C-295 planes, too, have P&W power plants.
As the kharif season is setting in, India is scrambling to source fertilisers from the international market. It is set to sign long-term contracts - especially with Morocco and Latin American countries - to ensure steady flow of supplies. "We have to source fertilisers wherever it is available because crops have to be secured.
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee brainstormed the impact of any future shocks on the inflation trajectory and stressed monitoring the cumulative effect of monetary policy actions over the past one year, which is still unfolding, revealed minutes of the rate-setting panel released on Thursday. The minutes of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, also indicated it would be premature to declare an end to the monetary tightening cycle, which started in May 2022 to check high inflation following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. The central bank, which effected six back-to-back hikes in the key short-term lending rate (repo) since May 2022 to check high inflation, decided to take a pause early this month.
The RBI's rate-setting panel MPC on Monday began its three-day deliberation amid expectations of another round of hike in benchmark interest rates to contain inflation that continues to remain above the central bank's upper tolerance level. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will announce the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee after deliberations on Wednesday. Das has already indicated that there may another hike in the repo rate, though he refrained from quantifying it.
United States National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met with his Chinese counterpart in Rome and held discussions on a range of issues, including bilateral relation and Russia's war against Ukraine, the White House said.
Subdued demand from developed countries and blocs like the US and EU is impacting exports of key sectors including engineering, gems and jewellery and may have implications on India's exports in case the global situation does not improve in coming months. Global inflation, Russia-Ukraine war, simmering China-Taiwan crisis and supply disruptions are hurting economic growth worldwide, leading to poor demand, experts say. The world merchandise trade volume is expected to grow 3 per cent in 2022 against the earlier forecast of 4.7 per cent, mainly due to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, according to the World Trade Organization forecast, released in April.
Reconstruction efforts after the Russia-Ukraine war will be dominated by the heft of the membership of major nations across international organisations. India is hamstrung because it does not play host to any major global institution nor does it hold positions of significant influence in the ones in which it has membership. As a result, the world's sixth largest economy is obliged to follow the rules set by most of them.
Ahead of the talks, the United Kingdom said it will offer India the best of British know-how on building battle-winning aircraft.
Global investors have cited the ongoing war and high valuations of Indian equity markets as a reason to skip the IPO.
