Analysts remain selective on cement stocks amid the likely government's capex push ahead of the scheduled general elections in May 2024. While UBS has initiated coverage on the Indian cement sector with an anti-consensus negative view and suggests investors sell select cement stocks on a rally, those at Nomura remain selectively bullish on the sector and prefer companies with large brownfield optionality and multi-region presence. In the near-term, UBS expects strong earnings of cement companies in the next two quarters to be driven by robust demand and margin tailwinds, but suggests any sharp uptick in stock prices could offer a good opportunity for booking profits in the related counters.
People are availing far more of certain kinds of unsecured loans than was the case before the pandemic. Bank lending for buying consumer durables and funding of credit cards and other personal loans have risen by Rs 6.9 trillion between August 2019 and August 2023, shows a Business Standard analysis of data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). These loans are typically unsecured, which means they are provided without collateral.
The Reserve Bank is likely to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) after the Budget.
The government's austerity drive announced on Thursday , would lead to a saving of up to Rs 40,000 crore (Rs 400 billion) or 0.3 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) but poses risks to growth, Japanese brokerage Nomura has said.
The interim Budget proposals that will be presented on February 1 in the backdrop of the general elections scheduled in April/May 2024 are likely to have a hint of populism, believe analysts, but are unlikely to derail the government from its path of fiscal prudence.
Brokerage house Nomura today said the downward revision of FY'13 growth figure by the Central Statistics Office will have a positive base effect for GDP expansion in the current fiscal.
After a stellar run on the bourses that saw tractor stocks rise up to 52 per cent, analysts are turning cautious on the sector as muted demand trends may weigh in the near-term. Total volumes in the tractor segment for the last three quarters of the current financial year (9MFY24) have remained weak with VST Tillers, Escorts Kubota, and M&M seeing declines of 21 per cent, 5 per cent, and 3 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), respectively, during the period, amid patchy rainfall, delayed crop harvest, and lower reservoir level. Across industry, total domestic sales volume so far in the current financial year (April '23 to January '24) has declined 5 per cent Y-o-Y, as per Tractor Manufacturers Association (TMA).
Prices may go up because of higher energy costs, caused by the rise in shipping charges, with commercial vessels taking a longer route to avoid the troubled Red Sea region, the finance ministry said on Monday. Iran-backed Houthi rebels of Yemen are repeatedly attacking ships in the Red Sea. While the global economy is grappling with challenges such as sticky inflation, sluggish growth, and mounting fiscal pressure, India's external sector could face "potential risks" due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, according to the finance ministry's report on the review of the Indian economy.
The Softbank-backed company has set a price band of Rs 72 to Rs 76 per share for the maiden share sale and is expected to test the appetite for new-age loss-making companies.
Asia to stay flat in 2017. India is better-placed given its low export dependence and it should outperform Asian peers this year says Mixo Das, India strategist for financial major Nomura
The stock of Godrej Consumer Products Limited (GCPL) fell about 3.7 per cent in trade after its Q3FY24 earnings disappointed brokerages and led to downgrades. Further, the stock, after a 15 per cent run-up over the past month prior to Monday's correction, had already factored in the upside from the business front. Its peer in the consumer space, Marico, too, saw a 4 per cent drop in its stock price.
Government's food subsidy bill tends to rise in tandem with the MSP increase.
Factors that can push growth include softer interest rates, increased banking sector liquidity, higher rural consumption, salary hikes for state government employees and greater traction in public capex
The stock of Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) has been touching successive all-time highs on the bourses and, over the past year, gained 81 per cent. While the S&P BSE Auto Index has not performed poorly, registering gains of 73 per cent, it still trails the company by 800 basis points (bps) during this period. There are multiple reasons why investors are beating a path to M&M's counter.
The 55 basis point (bps) spike in the US 10-year bond yield, triggered by a combination of FOMC's hawkish commentary and BOJ's relaxation of the yield control curve (YCC) has made analysts cautious on Asian equities and expect them to trade sideways in the short-to-medium term.
Even as Srini Pallia, a Wipro veteran, is set to take charge as the chief executive officer (CEO) of the company, analysts expect the stock's underperformance to continue in the near-future. This, they believe, will be on the back of likely loss of market share, and difficult business environment. "We expect Wipro to underperform peers on growth once again in FY25 as channel checks and media reports suggest Wipro is losing share with select clients across multiple verticals.
Average policy rate over the next three years should be around 7.4%
Infosys was the only large-cap IT player to report sequential constant currency (cc) revenue growth for the June quarter (1 per cent ), which was ahead of analyst expectations, but the company's sharp downward revision in its growth guidance took most brokerages by surprise. In line with the cut in its FY24 revenue guidance (cc) to 1-3.5 per cent, brokerages have unanimously reduced FY24 EPS estimates for the company in the range of 2-4 per cent, though the Street is likely fearing even further downside, they say. Global brokerages Macquarie and Nomura downgraded Infosys to underperform and reduce ratings, respectively, with the latter cutting the target price to Rs 1210 from Rs 1260.
State Bank of India's earnings growth may turn lacklustre in the near-term, warn analysts. This, they said, could be due to margin compression and likely lower fee income over the next one year. "While the cost of deposits is repricing sharply across the system, there will be relatively lower yield expansion going ahead as most of the back-book has been repriced and there is a high competitive pressure on yields.
The gauge for the performance of informational technology (IT) stocks soared nearly 5 per cent-most in nearly three years-as growth worries eased following a robust order book posted by bellwether Tata Consultancy Services (TCS). The Nifty IT index rose 4.5 per cent to close at 30,945. This was the biggest single-day gain since September 14, 2020. Industry titan TCS' shares rose 5 per cent to Rs 3,509.
After the latest rout, the American depositary receipt (ADR) premium of HDFC Bank to its local shares has shrunk to nearly zero. Shares of HDFC Bank on Thursday fell 3.1 per cent to Rs 1,490, extending its two-day decline to 11 per cent. Meanwhile, the ADR has slumped over 15 per cent in the past two trading sessions.
India's prices are rising faster than many of its emerging market peers. The country's inflation print for May at 4.25 per cent is a marked reduction from the levels seen in May 2022 (7.04 per cent). However, even though the inflation rate remains within the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4 per cent, with a 2 per cent margin on either side, it continues to be higher than China, Russia, and Brazil.
For the company's latest energy initiative to expand its green energy and storage portfolio, some analysts are beginning to suggest a closer look at some of its segments. In his address to shareholders in the company's FY22 annual report, billionaire Mukesh Ambani, chairman and managing director of the company, said: "The green energy value holds great promise to outshine all our existing growth engines in just 5-7 years." The company has marked an investment of Rs 75,000 crore towards its new energy plans, which include solar energy value chain, green hydrogen, energy storage and other similar businesses.
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India's top technology companies will witness a tepid revenue expansion in the third quarter (October - December) of the current financial year (Q3FY24) - along expected lines - on the back of furloughs and no blockbuster deals, even as the momentum gained from Generative AI (GenAI) is likely to take centre stage. IT services and consulting firm Accenture's first quarter numbers in FY24 showed a significant pick up in GenAI spending. It signed new bookings to the tune of $450 million in this space, a surge from the $300 million signed in the whole of FY23.
The third quarter (Q3) of 2023-24 (FY24) has proven to be pivotal, witnessing some startups turning profitable and others enhancing their performance as their businesses finally begin to deliver. Startups like Delhivery, Zomato, PolicyBazaar, Mamaearth, and Nykaa have either become profitable or improved their profit margins in Q3FY24. A renewed focus on profitability, supported by operational efficiencies, expense rein-in, and robust demand during the festival season, has empowered companies to strengthen their performance.
Following are comments from economists at leading financial institutions, banks and rating agencies on the interim Budget:
Brokerages believe that the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP's) stronger-than-expected showing in state elections reduces political risks for the domestic markets going into 2024. However, after the short-term excitement, the focus will soon shift to earnings, global liquidity conditions, and the interest rate trajectory. "BJP's win in the three state elections is much better than what exit polls suggested and reinforces the consensus expectations of a Modi win in the 2024 national elections with a greater likelihood of 300+ seats for the BJP.
Over the past three trading sessions, the stock of Cummins India has gained about nine per cent on strong January-March quarter (Q4) results and good near-term prospects. Its Q4 performance was led by a healthy 29 per cent revenue growth over the year ago quarter. This was largely on the back of a 33 per cent jump in domestic revenues while exports witnessed a growth of 17 per cent.
Equity markets rallied after softer-than-expected inflation data in the US and UK rekindled hopes of the end of the rate-hiking cycle by major central banks. The soft inflation reading drove down bond yields and the US dollar, whetting the appetite for risky assets. The 10-year US bond yield fell below 4.5 per cent after topping 5 per cent less than a month ago.
There is no near-term respite for the country's largest fast-moving consumer goods maker, Hindustan Unilever (HUL), which is facing multiple challenges on the growth front. With demand showing no signs of improvement, especially in the rural segment, the October-December quarter (Q3) of 2023-24 (FY24) is likely to be similar to the previous quarter, with volume growth in the low single digits. The stock, which is down 7 per cent over the past year compared to the 11 per cent jump for the S&P BSE Sensex, could underperform the benchmark in the near term as well.
The stock of the country's largest passenger vehicle maker, Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) was down 1.06 per cent in trade on margin pressures in Q1FY24, mixed market share outlook, and earnings impact due to the buyout of Suzuki Motor Gujarat. While MSIL has decided to terminate the contract manufacturing agreement and acquire Suzuki Motor Gujarat, the quantum of payment and mode (cash/equity swap) has not been decided. If the cash option is opted for, there would be a 3.5-4 per cent hit to MSIL's FY25 earnings per share as the deal is expected to be completed by the end of the current financial year.
With sentiment for the automotive (auto) sector turning positive, stocks of two-wheeler auto majors have been hitting their 52-week highs. Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor Company, and Eicher Motors recently reached their yearly highs on strong sales in the festival season and the expectation of faster growth rates ahead. Since the start of this month, listed two-wheeler majors have delivered returns in the 12-17 per cent range, compared to the 7 per cent gains for the S&P BSE Auto Index and 3 per cent for the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex.
At a time when the market is betting on a 'higher for longer' global interest rate view, Accenture's (ACN) weak revenue forecast is a negative read-through for the Indian IT firms, according to analysts. The Dublin-based company sees its revenue growth at 2-5 per cent in constant currency (cc) for the financial year 2024 (FY24), below the pre-Covid levels of 5-8 per cent for FY17-20. The weak projection, thus, signals that slower demand is likely to persist this year, and any recovery is unlikely in the near-to-medium term, experts note.
Higher for longer' may be the narrative in the developed markets, but interest rates might not stay high for very long in India, with a section of the market expecting rate cuts to begin this year. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 6.5 per cent in the April review - after hiking the policy repo rate in six previous meetings. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das emphasised that the pause was only for the April policy and that the central bank was ready to act if the situation demanded.
With the Big Four information technology services players having disappointed the Street, the focus is on mid-cap IT players who seem to have met expectations, according to analyst reports and management commentary on the demand environment.
Mutual funds (MFs) are betting on a turnaround in the healthcare sector to boost returns but are divided on the prospects of the information technology (IT) sector amid uncertain growth outlook. At the end of June, all of the top 20 fund houses were overweight on the healthcare sector vis--vis the sector's presence in the BSE 200 index, shows a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFS). In the case of the IT sector, only six of the 20 fund houses had overweight positions.
In August, the Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das held a meeting with chief executive officers/ managing directors (CEOs/ MDs) of large non-banking financial corporations (NBFCs). The discussions included diversifying borrowing sources for NBFCs and housing finance companies (HFCs) to contain increasing reliance on bank borrowing, risks associated with high credit growth in retail segment in unsecured loans, prioritising IT upgrades and cyber-security, improving provisioning, monitoring of stressed exposures and slippages, ensuring robust liquidity and asset-liability management, ensuring transparency in pricing, creating robust grievance redress mechanisms.
The stock of LTIMindtree finished at Rs 5,001 a piece on Monday, which means it is down about 5 per cent from its all-time high as its June quarter results for the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24) missed estimates. A cautious note by the management, coupled with the fact that it will miss its double digit revenue growth target for FY24 weighed on the stock price. The company delivered revenues of just over a billion dollars in the quarter with constant currency growth of 0.1 per cent.
Irregular rainfall and a pick-up in commodity costs are expected to weigh on the demand and margins of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies. Most companies reported a sharp expansion in gross margins in the April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), given the lower prices of key raw materials and earlier price hikes. Furthermore, there were expectations that cost savings being passed on could reflect in volume growth going forward. However, these hopes could be dashed if demand recovery, especially in the rural segment, stalls, and gains on the raw material front start to recede.
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