Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded on Thursday after three sessions of losses, tracking gains in global markets after US President Donald Trump struck a conciliatory tone on Greenland. In a volatile session, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 397.74 points, or 0.49 per cent, to close at 82,307.37.
Budget 2026 sticks to fiscal discipline, shuns populist measures despite five key state elections coming up, but ends up rattling stock markets with a higher transaction tax on derivatives trading.
Real GDP growth surprised on the upside in 2025, but weaker nominal growth, trade uncertainty, and soft demand signal a bumpier road ahead.
In 2025-26, the government allocated Rs 6,81,210 crore for defence budget.
India's state-level fiscal rules have improved headline deficits, but the gains are fragile and uneven with major states still grappling with high debt levels, a World Bank report submitted to the 16th Finance Commission (FC) said. According to the report, despite nearly two decades of adoption of fiscal responsibility laws (FRLs), debt levels have not converged.
'Global uncertainty is something which definitely occupies the minds of officials when we are preparing for the Budget.'
Supported by strong buoyancy in public sector capital expenditure (capex), growth in infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate in 2025-26 (FY26) compared to 2024-25 (FY25), according to the First Advance Estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for FY26 released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on Wednesday.
The key question is how much of the latest growth record represents recovery from the 2020-2021 downturn, and what is the sustainable growth rate now, asks T N Ninan.
From the 30-Sensex firms, Bharat Electronics surged nearly 9 per cent post its December quarter earnings. Eternal, Bajaj Finance, Power Grid, Trent, Mahindra & Mahindra and UltraTech Cement were the other major gainers. Maruti, Sun Pharma, Infosys and Bharti Airtel were among the other laggards.
The fiscal tilt towards capex benefits companies in investment-related sectors like capital goods, defence equipment, engineering & construction and metal & mining. The planned cut in revenue expenditure will weigh on companies in consumption sectors like FMCG, consumer durables and retail.
The exchange rate of the rupee against the dollar may delay the economy's rise to become the fourth-largest.
Interestingly, with 83 per cent of entrepreneurs being first-generation founders, the list reflects India's growing spirit of entrepreneurship and leadership.
India is on track to exceed the $4 trillion milestone in 2025-26 (FY26), surpassing the $3.9 trillion gross domestic product (GDP) mark recorded at the end of March 2025, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said on Tuesday.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says India and the EU are close to a 'historic trade agreement' that could create a market of two billion people and account for almost a quarter of the global GDP.
India's real GDP grew 8.2 percent in the second quarter of 2025-26, up from 7.8 percent in the first quarter and 7.4 percent in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal.
Like the realisation on the failure of development, we have also internalised the failure on democracy, argues Aakar Patel.
India clarified its absence from a South Africa-initiated naval wargame, stating it was not an institutional BRICS activity. The exercise involved navies from China, Russia, Iran, and others, amid rising tensions in Iran.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday participated in a traditional 'halwa' ceremony, marking the final stage for the preparation of the Union Budget 2026-27, to be unveiled on February 1 in the Lok Sabha.
There are vexing questions around the disconnect between Nifty returns and portfolio returns, between economic growth and earnings growth, and finally, between earnings growth and market returns, points out Debashis Basu.
India is the second-most-preferred destination among chief executive officers planning international investments - up from the fifth spot last year, according to PwC's 29th Annual Global CEO Survey released on Tuesday. The United States is their first choice.
In the wake of the FTA between India and the European Union, the United States has described the Europeans as 'very disappointing', saying they were unwilling to join Washington, DC in putting tariffs on New Delhi for its purchases of Russian oil because of this trade deal.
'The trade deficit in some sectors is huge and that is an area of opportunity to localise.'
India, the world's fourth largest economy, is set to maintain the 'goldilocks' phase with tailwinds of good growth, low inflation and robust banking performance as well as reform initiatives poised to sustain the economic pace witnessed during 2025.
State debt is rising because revenues are disappointingly weak. Ten states have debt ratios exceeding 30 per cent. In 2023-2024, states were borrowing simply to meet day-to-day expenses, points out Debashis Basu.
There are some apparent paradoxes visible in the data from the first quarter of 2025-26 (Q1FY26). The gross domestic product (GDP) delivered a positive surprise with 7.8 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth.
Stock market is gearing up for an eventful week ahead where key triggers such as quarterly earnings from corporates, the US Fed interest rate decision and the upcoming Union Budget for 2026-27 would grab the limelight, analysts said.
The BSE Smallcap index hit an over eight-month low of 47,627.96, falling 3 per cent in Tuesday's intraday trade amid selling pressure due to ongoing tariff-related concerns and rising geopolitical tensions.
Deloitte India on Thursday projected India's economy to grow 6.7-6.9 per cent in the current fiscal amid buoyant demand and policy reforms. Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of current fiscal.
In a world fractured by uncertainty, India stands out for its policy consistency, paired with sustained ambition, points out Pritam Banerjee.
Sustaining 8 per cent-plus growth rates is necessary if we are to reach high-income status by 2047, points out Amitabh Kant.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday revised upward its growth estimates for the current fiscal year to 6.8 per cent and lowered its inflation projection to 2.6 per cent based on an above-normal monsoon and the rationalisation of GST rates.
'Trump says India will buy over $500 billion of US goods.' 'At present, India's annual imports of goods and energy from the US are under $50 billion.' 'Reaching $500 billion would likely require more than 20 years, suggesting the figure refers to a long-term aspiration rather than a near-term commitment.'
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday announced the signing of the India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA), saying it accounts for 25 per cent of global GDP and one-third of global trade.
India and the European Union are set to announce on January 27 the conclusion of negotiations and finalisation of a free trade agreement, which is aimed at boosting economic ties between the two regions amid disruptions in global trade due to US tariffs, an official said.
Trading pattern in the stock market this week will largely depend on the ongoing Q3 earnings announcement from corporates, global trends, and foreign fund movement, analysts said. Moreover, geopolitical developments and any update on trade negotiations would also be keenly tracked by investors, experts noted.
Wholesale price inflation extended upward momentum for the second straight month, recording at 0.83 per cent in December 2025, driven by an uptick in prices of food, non-food articles, and manufactured items on a month-on-month basis, government data showed on Wednesday. Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation returned to positive in December, after witnessing a deflationary trend in the previous two months.
Fund managers advise conservative investors to cap midcap exposure at 10 to 15 per cent of their equity portfolio.
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday raised India's GDP growth forecast to 6.9 per cent for current fiscal year, from 6.5 per cent earlier, citing strong June quarter growth and domestic consumption-led demand.
'Only four or five original companies remain; the rest have been replaced every decade as sectors evolve or leadership shifts.' 'Companies that fail to adapt -- like many textile mills from the 1970s and shipping firms from the 1980s -- disappear.' 'Benchmark indices reward those who reinvent themselves in line with economic demands.'
The core dilemma remains: Why provide further stimulus to an economy that is already booming at an 8 per cent growth rate? asks Rajeswari Sengupta.
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