'Inflation is not good for industry. Nor for the economy as a whole.'
Private consumption is back driven by festive spending, and the medium-term economic outlook remains bullish as the innate strength of the macro-fundamentals reasserts itself, the Reserve Bank Bulletin said on Wednesday. Global economic activity remained resilient during Q4:2024 amidst fragile confidence and rising protectionism, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in the November Bulletin.
In spite of a severe second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, and a widespread disruption in public life therefore, India's fast-moving consumer goods (FMGC) sector seems to have emerged as one of the most resilient segments of the economy. The early numbers and estimates for the April-June quarter indicate a steady recovery in FMCG players' business, which is now set to exceed the pre-pandemic level. Amid nationwide lockdowns because of the first Covid wave, FMCG revenues had been severely affected in mid-2020.
From the 30 Sensex pack, Hindustan Unilever fell by nearly 6 per cent after the FMCG major reported a 2.33 per cent decline in consolidated net profit at Rs 2,595 crore for the second quarter ended in September 2024 impacted by moderation in demand from the urban market.
After a robust 2023, foreign investors significantly scaled back their investments in Indian equities in 2024, with net inflows amounting to over Rs 5,000 crore, as elevated domestic valuations, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance. Looking ahead to 2025, FPI flows into Indian equities could see a recovery, supported by a cyclical upswing in corporate earnings, particularly in domestic-oriented sectors like capital goods, manufacturing, and infrastructure, Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research, Ventura Securities, said.
As the second wave of the pandemic ebbs and the daily caseload falls, the struggles of the urban poor have come into focus. Many have suffered income and job losses after two successive waves. The second wave, in particular, has seen the poor being hit hard on account of lack of medical and financial help. For the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies this has meant that an important segment is under severe distress.
The VBL board approved the purchase of SBC Tanzania for Rs 1,304 crore and SBC Beverages Ghana for Rs 127 crore. These own manufacturing/distribution rights for NARTD (PepsiCo branded) beverages in Tanzania and Ghana. The acquisitions will help VBL gain ground in East and West Africa.
The Indian FMCG industry has recorded a 9.4 per cent growth in the January-March quarter of 2021, helped by a consumption-led growth and value growth by increased prices of products, especially of staples, said data analytics firm Nielsen. The rural market continued to perform with strong growth of 14.6 per cent during the period and the metro markets have registered a positive growth after two quarters. Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) industry sales growth from the traditional trade channels jumped to double digits, while growth in e-commerce normalised down to single digits in the January-March quarter.
'Domestic investors are opening up to the idea of high-growth Internet companies as a pool of value creation.' 'They like the execution that they see with Zepto, and for us, that is the most important factor.'
Home-grown FMCG major Dabur India on Thursday said it will set up a Rs 400-crore manufacturing plant in Tamil Nadu's Villupuram district, marking the company's maiden foray into the South. State Industries Minister TRB Rajaa said, Dabur has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the state government to this effect on Thursday. The MoU outlines an approved Phase 1 investment of Rs 135 crore, scaling up to Rs 400 crore over five years, Dabur India said in a statement.
From the 30 Sensex firms, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Finance, Asian Paints, Nestle, Bharti Airtel, UltraTech Cement, Hindustan Unilever, ITC, and HDFC Bank were the major laggards. In contrast, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Tata Motors, Axis Bank, Tata Consultancy Services and State Bank of India were among the gainers.
Bengaluru dominated as the country's top city for job opportunities and salary growth as it has registered a 9.3 per cent year-on-year increase, closely followed by Chennai and Delhi, a report said on Thursday. This growth underlines Bengaluru's reputation as a technology and business hub as the average monthly unified salary in the city stood at Rs 29,500, making it the highest-paying city in the country, according to TeamLease Services Jobs and Salaries Primer report for FY24. The report is based on an analysis of unified salaries across temporary and permanent hiring markets.
However, rural demand continued to remain a concern for FMCG companies during the quarter.
ITC, Sun Pharma, Maruti, M&M, Tata Motors, HCL Tech, Wipro, Infosys, HUL, Bharti Airtel and Reliance were among the major losers. Kotak Bank rose the most by 1.59 per cent, followed by IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv. L&T, SBI, TCS and HDFC Bank also closed higher.
Mandates have been handed out to staffing solutions companies such as Randstad India and TeamLease, officials at these firms have said, as players increasingly push into rural areas to capitalise on the uptick in the hinterlands.
Days before Diwali, the monthly economic review by the finance ministry has highlighted moderation in urban demand, softening consumer sentiments and limited footfall as areas that need to be watched. In its review, released on Monday, the ministry also noted the early signs of artificial intelligence displacing workers, as described in anecdotal reports. The commentary from several large consumer goods companies, including Nestl India, Hindustan Unilever, and ITC, in their recent quarterly earnings, has been around a sluggish urban demand. Rural consumption, however, has mostly seen a revival, the companies pointed out.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew Rs 14,790 crore ($1.8 billion) from financial stocks in the first half of August, driven by global risk aversion sparked by US recession fears. Additional factors contributing to the decline in banking stocks included subdued earnings growth in the June quarter, concerns about slowing deposit growth, and stricter liquidity norms imposed by the Reserve Bank of India.
'Our target will come from rural areas as there are more outlets there.'
Some analysts see more upside in FMCG stocks given the performance gap between the sector and the market.
While there was a 6 to 7 per cent increase in volume compared to last year in the first few days of the month which coincided with festivals, a large part of the demand is yet to hit the market.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty pared early gains to settle lower on Wednesday due to late selling in index major Reliance Industries, ITC and HDFC Bank even as the RBI took the first step towards a rate cut in its monetary policy review. Erasing its early gains, the 30-share BSE Sensex fell 167.71 points or 0.21 per cent to close at 81,467.1. During the day, it surged 684.4 points or 0.83 per cent to hit an intra-day high of 82,319.21.
Leading FMCG companies in the country are expecting their sales growth numbers in high double digit in the April-June quarter, a period when the broader market was severely impacted by the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. FMCG companies such as Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL) and Marico, in their quarterly updates to bourses, informed about double-digit sales growth. While Tata Consumer Products Ltd (TCPL) MD and CEO Sunil D'Souza in an interview had told PTI, the Tata Group FMCG firm expects higher growth in the Q1/FY'22 over Q4/FY'21.
The prospective bidders of Haldiram Snacks Foods (HSFPL), a leading food firm, have sought clarity on the ownership of the brand as it is currently owned by different family factions. The Delhi and Nagpur families have decided to merge their operations and formed a joint venture to sell part of their stake. On the other hand, the Kolkata family runs its separate, independent operations. Bankers said prospective bidders of the company do not want any confusion over the brand in future. They have sought clarity over usage of the brand.
Equity benchmark indices continued to gain for the third day running on Monday, with the BSE Sensex climbing 781 points in early trade, amid firm global market trends. The 30-share BSE Sensex was trading with a jump of 781.52 points to 53,509.50. The NSE Nifty also gained 228.2 points to 15,927.45.
Overall market reaction to the Budget was neutral. Investors absorbed the changes to the tax rates (positive for salaried class) and capital gains taxes (CGTs, negative due to the removal of indexation and increases. Other proposals largely pertain to supporting rural development, buybacks taxed as dividends, Custom duty changes that impact multiple sectors, higher outlays for clean energy, etc. There's some moderation in the growth of capex outlay across defence, fer
These 10 stocks represent the best mix of value and growth, offering relatively low price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios, a high return on equity, and sufficiently high potential from current levels.
Clearly, the domestic market has taken sharp knocks in April, which is likely to be visible in May as well, said analysts tracking the market, as FMCG companies are grappling with improving capacity utilisation and dealing with labour shortage.
Most brokerages are betting that the new government will shift to a policy focussing on boosting rural incomes and consumption since that has clearly been a pain point.
'A long-term investor with a 4 to 5 year horizon could invest in this theme via SIPs.'
MNC funds invest in companies where foreign promoters have more than 50 per cent shareholding.
India Inc continued to grapple with muted revenue growth in the September 2024 quarter (Q2FY25) and witnessed a decline in margins and profits. The headwinds were especially severe for non-financial companies, while banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) firms significantly outpaced the rest of the corporate sector. The total profit of 1,353 listed companies that have released their Q2FY25 results thus far dropped by 0.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) - the first cumulative earnings decline in eight quarters.
The country's top FMCG stocks, such as Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Nestl, Britannia, Godrej Consumer Products, and Dabur, among others, are currently trading at around 41x their trailing 12-month earnings, down from their peak P/E multiple of around 48x at the end of December 2018.
HUL, ITC, Nestle, Colgate, Dabur, Britannia, Asian Paints, P&G are trading at nearly 48 times. The previous record high was 53 times at the end of March 1994.
Mahindra & Mahindra, Titan, Sun Pharma, ITC, Nestle and Tata Motors were the other big gainers. Reliance Industries, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bajaj Finance and JSW Steel were among the laggards.
Delay in demand recovery and higher stock valuations mean low safety margin, say analysts.
The combined wealth of India's dollar billionaires is now equivalent to 33.81 per cent of India's nominal GDP.
Amazon's pantry division across 29 cities in India helps sellers sell FMCG products on its platform.
Most of the changes have come about in the last four years and ITC is now reaping the dividends - standalone revenues from the non-cigarettes FMCG business have grown 40 per cent from FY17 to Rs 14,728.21 crore in FY21 and pre-tax profits 30 times to Rs 823.69 crore. The business accounted for 30.58 per cent of gross revenues and 4.85 per cent of pre-tax profits in FY21. "In the last four years, our margins in FMCG have gone up by 640 basis points (bps) and EBITDA margins have been moving up consistently. "We created levers that enabled a sustained growth trajectory," said ITC chairman and managing director Sanjiv Puri. Puri took charge as the chief executive officer in 2017; in 2018, he was redesignated managing director and effective May 2019, he became chairman.
The Budget proposals are expected to boost the fortunes of consumer goods and fast-moving consumer goods companies, which have been struggling with poor consumer demand for more than a year. The Budget announcements, such as the increase in standard deduction by Rs 25,000 for income-tax payers and slab revisions, will put more money in their hands, boosting consumer demand. Private consumption is also likely to benefit from a new scheme to offer internships to 10 million youths in the country's top 500 companies.
The 70 launches were made in the first half of the financial year alone and were mostly focused on hygiene, health & wellness, naturals and convenience, which were in high demand as Covid -19 raged across the world.
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