Kotak Mahindra Bank was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, sliding 2.68 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Motors, Tata Consultancy Services, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Nestle and Titan. In contrast, NTPC, Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, HDFC, Reliance and HDFC Bank were the gainers.
'The actions of Indian monetary authorities will depend on how quickly they want the inflation to come down to 4 per cent.'
Sugar prices are hovering near six-year highs, leaving a bad taste in Indian consumers' palates but sweetening the portfolios of investors in related stocks at Dalal Street. Shares of sugar manufacturers such as Piccadily Agro, DCM Shriram, Magadh Sugar, and Bajaj Hindustan have rallied up to a whopping 200 per cent so far in the financial year 2024 (FY24) as deficient monsoon rains in major sugarcane producer states like Maharashtra and Karnataka are expected to lead to a shortfall in sugar output ahead. In comparison, the BSE Sensex has modestly gained 11 per cent during this period.
India will receive normal monsoon this season, country's meteorological department said on Wednesday in its forecast for the Southwest monsoon that covers 75 per cent of the country, and thereby may bring much-needed respite to the economy, which is reeling under the catastrophic effect of the Covid-19 pandemic.
With different agencies showing divergent predictions regarding the southwest monsoon, the central government and states are gearing up to face adversity with various line ministries reportedly being directed to undertake mock drills and hold preparatory meetings. Around 56 per cent of the net cultivable area of the country is rain-fed, accounting for 44 per cent of foodgrain production. The June-September rains contribute around 73 per cent of the annual precipitation.
With the monsoon set to start in the country this week, the Meteorological Department has placed the odds of El Nino -- which can affect wind patterns and trigger both floods and sharply reduced rains -- at 60 per cent.
India appears poised to sustain its growth in a more durable way than before with the economy carrying the momentum from FY23 into the current fiscal year, the Annual Economic Review for 2022-23 released by the finance ministry on Thursday said. However, the report cautioned that escalation of geopolitical stress, enhanced volatility in global financial systems, sharp price correction in global stock markets, a high magnitude of El-Nino impact, and modest trade activity and FDI inflows, are factors that could constrain the pace of growth. "Should these developments deepen and dampen growth in the subsequent quarters, the external sector may challenge India's growth outlook for FY24," the finance ministry said.
There is a substantial possibility of the emergence of La Nina, the opposite of El Nino, which invariably has a positive influence on the monsoon.
Non-basmati white rice accounts for nearly 25-30 per cent of total rice exported from the country.
Automobile retail sales in India witnessed a double-digit year-on-year growth in February driven by robust sales across segments including passenger vehicles and two-wheelers, automobile dealers' body FADA said on Monday. Total registrations across segments rose 16 per cent year-on-year to 17,75,424 units last month, as compared to 15,31,196 vehicles in February 2022. Passenger vehicle retail sales rose 11 per cent to 287,182 units last month, against 258,736 units in the year-ago period.
Globally averaged temperatures in 2017 were 0.90 degree Celsius warmer than the 1951 to 1980 mean, according to scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York. That is second only to global temperatures in 2016.
From the Sensex pack, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, Wipro, Tata Consultancy Services, UltraTech Cement, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv, HCL Technologies, Infosys and IndusInd Bank were the major laggards. NTPC, Power Grid, Reliance Industries, Tata Steel, HDFC and HDFC Bank were the major winners.
'Very few of small investors stay invested for those three or four or five years.' 'If there's like a six month, one-year period when market is not doing well, you exit.' 'After the market has run up, you get in again.' 'This way you will never make returns.'
The Indian economy will grow at around 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal, notwithstanding high crude oil prices and increased uncertainty due climate changes, NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani said on Thursday. Virmani also asserted that the gross household savings ratio in India has consistently gone up. In an interview with PTI, he said: "My growth projection (of India's GDP growth) is 6.5 per cent plus minus 0.5 per cent... because my experience is that the fluctuations in global GDP more or less has balanced out for us, assuming normal changes."
The Indian equity market is likely to remain under pressure and rangebound over the next few months. This comes as global central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve look at a possibility of hiking rates aggressively to tame inflation. Back home, the Reserve Bank of India, too, remains data dependent in its endeavour to keep inflation in check and pursue an aggressive monetary policy stance.
Deficient rains can shave 50-80 basis points off gross domestic product and hurt consumption.
"The season averaged maximum temperatures in Himachal Pradesh, West Rajasthan, Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Arunachal Pradesh are likely to be higher than normal by 0.5-1.0 degree Celsius," the Met department has said in its forecast.
The 55 basis point (bps) spike in the US 10-year bond yield, triggered by a combination of FOMC's hawkish commentary and BOJ's relaxation of the yield control curve (YCC) has made analysts cautious on Asian equities and expect them to trade sideways in the short-to-medium term.
The government on Thursday banned exports of non-basmati white rice to boost domestic supply and keep retail prices under check during the upcoming festive season. There would be no change in export policy of par-boiled non-basmati rice and basmati rice, which forms the bulk of exports, the food ministry said in a statement. Non-basmati white rice constitutes about 25 per cent of total rice exported from the country.
A depression over the southeast Arabian Sea, south of Porbandar in Gujarat, is likely to move northwestward and intensify into a cyclonic storm, the India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday.
According to the global financial services major, inflation may remain sticky, with a possible El Nino effect on the monsoon likely to push up food prices and geopolitical uncertainties seen pumping up global commodity rates.
A prolonged break in monsoon rains in most parts of the country is threatening to hit the yield of kharif crops. It could even delay the upcoming rabi sowing. Major agricultural states, such as Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, and Gujarat, have witnessed a deficit of 30-80 per cent in southwest monsoon rainfall in August compared to the long-period average for the month. Meteorologists see no big revival in monsoon rains from hereon, though they forecast "some activity" over the Bay of Bengal on September 5-6.
With temperatures remaining above normal since November, this winter could well be the warmest ever recorded not only in North India, but across the country.
The Indian markets have seen a good run in the last three months with the S&P BSE Sensex rising around 7 per cent and the Nifty50 moving up 7.5 per cent. The next leg of the market rally from here on, analysts suggest, will be driven by a growth in corporate earnings over the next few quarters. That said, they do not expect material / sharp downgrades to India Inc's earnings estimates despite headwinds for the economy.
The UK body's forecast comes after the UN agency World Meteorological Organisation warned that there is more than 50 per cent chance of El Nino happening this year. El Nino is caused by an abnormal warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean and its impact would cause droughts and floods.
While India won't be immune to global spillovers, we need to create the macro preconditions for sustained growth. Policy agility, prudence, and resilience will be key, suggests Sonal Varma.
'Earnings will be the catalyst for markets to march higher from here on out.'
After El Nino and droughts hit pepper in Vietnam, causing a production drop of around 20%, Indian market is hoping that the global supply position will remain tight this year.
'Markets are not expensive; they are fairly priced.'
'India is an equity market with a breadth and depth of companies to invest in.'
'The last time we had such a late withdrawal of monsoon was in 1960 or so.'
Among the Sensex firms, Bajaj Finance emerged as the biggest gainer by climbing 2.95 per cent. Tata Motors, Bajaj Finserv, IndusInd Bank, Sun Pharma, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Larsen & Toubro, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Maruti, Reliance Industries and Bharti Airtel were the other major winners. HCL Technologies, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, Tech Mahindra and Titan were among the laggards.
Inflation data, both at domestic and global level, interest rate scenario in the US, geopolitical situation and general elections in 2024 are some of the major factors that would influence trading in the equity market this financial year, analysts said. Besides, foreign fund trading activity and global trends will also dictate terms in the equity market going ahead. Equity markets across the globe faced major challenges in FY23 due to concerns over high inflation, which resulted in increase in interest rates around the world, lowering investor sentiment, experts added.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will maintain the policy repo rate at 6.5 per cent during its upcoming June 8 announcement, considering the easing of retail inflation in April and the potential for further decline, indicating the effectiveness of previous policy rate actions, anticipate experts. Headed by Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, a meeting of the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled for June 6-8. The decision of the 43rd meeting of the MPC would be announced on Thursday, June 8.
With the Nifty50 just about 3 per cent away from its all-time closing high of 18,812 points, analysts at BofA Securities suggest investors book profit. Their reasons for the advice include risks like the possibility of a cut in corporate earnings growth forecasts, high valuation (one-year forward P/E of 19.5x), interest rates staying elevated for longer-than-expected and credit tightening. Going ahead, they expect the Nifty50 index to drop to 16,000 levels - down nearly 12 per cent from the current level of 18,255 points, which they believe would be a good time to buy.
India's economy continues to be robust, but downside risks such as rising crude oil prices, adverse weather conditions, and the global banking crisis outweigh the upside potential in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the current financial year (FY24), the finance ministry said on Tuesday in its Monthly Economic Review for March. "We reiterate that downside risks to our official forecast of 6.5 per cent for real GDP growth in FY24 dominate upside risks," the review said. "Opec's surprise production cut has seen oil prices rise in April, off their lows of low-seventies per barrel in March.
Mohapatra said there is a 40 per cent chance of a normal rainfall, 22 per cent above normal, 12 per cent excess and 18 per cent below normal.
Retail inflation fell to a 15-month low of 5.66 per cent in March, mainly due to a decline in food prices, government data showed on Wednesday. The inflation figure in March is within the RBI's comfort zone as it is below 6 per cent. The retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 6.44 per cent in February 2023 and 6.95 per cent in the year-ago period.
"This warming trend is alarming," said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson.
Cyclone 'Biparjoy', the first storm brewing in the Arabian Sea this year, has rapidly intensified into a severe cyclonic storm, with meteorologists predicting a 'mild' monsoon onset over Kerala and 'weak' progress beyond southern peninsular under its influence.
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