Equity markets this week will take cues from global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and quarterly earnings, with TCS kick-starting the results calendar on Thursday, analysts said.
eclined for the third month in a row in January, falling by 2.38 per cent year-on-year to $36.43 billion, while the trade deficit widened to $22.99 billion in the month. Imports rose by 10.28 per cent year-on-year to $59.42 billion in January due to an increase gold shipments, according to the Commerce Ministry data. The trade deficit was $21.94 billion in December and $16.55 billion in January last year.
Two Elon Musk from November 2024 surfaced online over the weekend in which he can be seen criticising the US' F-35 fighter aircraft which President Donald J Trump offered to sell India during Prime Minister Narendra D Modi's visit to the White House on Thursday.
Two years after his dismissive stance on India's AI potential raised eyebrows here, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman on Wednesday gave a ringing endorsement to Artificial Intelligence momentum in the country -- and billed India as an important market not just for the new-age technology itself but for the ChatGPT creator as well. In New Delhi on Wednesday, Altman -- while sharing dais with Union IT minister Ashwini Vaishnaw -- said India is the second biggest market for the company and that Open AI had tripled its users here in the last year.
While liquidity in the banking system has turned surplus in the last few weeks, it could go back to deficit again, mainly due to corporate advance tax outflows. The net liquidity surplus of the banking system rose to touch Rs 1 trillion on Tuesday on the back of government spending, according to the data released by the Reserve Bank of India.
Wholesale price inflation moderated to 2.31 per cent in January due to the decline in prices of food items especially vegetables, government data released on Friday showed. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation was 2.37 per cent in December 2024. It was 0.33 per cent in January 2024.
'The bull market cycle ran for five years. It's the end of that cycle.' 'The next cycle is a down cycle, and in that down cycle, you will see the Sensex falling from their highs of around 68,000 to maybe 40,000-50,000 at the bottom of the cycle.'
During the talks, India and the US decided to take a big leap in broad-basing their strategic ties in several critical areas.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in nearly five years in Governor Sanjay Malhotra's first monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on Wednesday. The meeting of the six-member MPC, which will culminate on Friday, aims to boost sluggish economic growth, which is seen falling to a four-year low. Malhotra took charge as the 26th RBI governor in December last year.
The real intention of the 'Tariff Man' (as Trump calls himself) may not even be to put the 'Tariff King' (as he describes India) on the mat with a knockout punch but to arm-twist the Indian leadership to agree to some multi-billion dollar mega arms deal, argues Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'Growth, liquidity and deposit mobilisation are likely to be discussed during the interaction.'
Trading activity of foreign investors and global trends will be the major driving factors for the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. Leading stock exchanges BSE and NSE have declared a trading holiday on November 20 for assembly elections in Maharashtra. Elections to the 288-member state legislative assembly will be held on November 20, and votes will be counted on November 23.
The rupee has remained largely stable against the US greenback in the current calendar year (CY 2024), depreciating by just 0.59 per cent so far. However, it has considerably weakened against the euro and pound. The local currency has depreciated by 1.6 per cent against the euro and 5.6 per cent against the pound, as both currencies strengthened against the dollar during this period.
India's forex reserves dropped by $5.69 billion to $634.58 billion in the week ended January 3, the Reserve Bank of India said on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the overall kitty had declined by $4.11 billion to $640.28 billion.
LTIMindtree's (LTIM's) December quarter revenue, at $1.139 billion, was up 1.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) (5.6 per cent year-on-year or Y-o-Y) in constant currency (CC) terms, marginally ahead of expectations.
After United States President Donald Trump again raised the issue of alleged US funding of $21 million for voter turnout in India and 'kickbacks', the Bharatiya Janata Party has alleged that the money was used to sustain 'deep state assets' in India and demanded a probe into the matter.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi concluded his visit to the United States after holding high-level bilateral talks with President Donald Trump on a wide range of subjects, including trade and technology, defence and security, energy and people-to-people ties. The two leaders decided to take a significant step in deepening their strategic ties, particularly in the areas of defence, energy, and critical technology. Modi also met with key American officials, including National Security Advisor Michael Waltz and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and prominent business leaders like SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and Indian-American entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
Congress general secretary Randeep Surjewala has raised concerns about the Indian government's decision to potentially acquire F-35 fighter jets from the US, questioning whether the decision was made in the national interest and if security experts were consulted. He highlighted the high cost of the F-35, its operational flaws, and the potential impact on the Indian Air Force's existing fleet and maintenance infrastructure. Surjewala's comments come after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump unveiled plans for a 10-year defense partnership between India and the US, including potential F-35 sales.
'2025 is the year to build a portfolio for the future. Focus this year should be on valuations and visible growth.'
In November last year, an indictment was unsealed in the United States District Court for the Eastern District of New York, charging prominent Indian executives, including Chairman of the Adani Group, Gautam Adani, by linking them to an alleged bribery scheme.
Trump announced that India and the US agreed to work together to build the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and called it one of the greatest trade routes. He said that the route will operate from Israel to Italy and onward to the US.
Macroeconomic data announcements, trading activity of foreign investors and global trends will guide equity market movement this week, which would also mark the beginning of the new calendar year and month, analysts said.
He said that as compared to global models costing 2.5 to 3 US dollars per hour usage, India's AI model will cost less than less than Rs 100 per hour (1.16 US dollars per hour) after 40 percent government subsidy.
We the people are left in the wind, waiting on the whims of an unengaged president and an oligarch with a nearly bottomless wallet, observes Sree Sreenivasan.
India's forex reserves dropped by $4.11 billion to $640.28 billion during the week ended December 27, the Reserve Bank said on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the overall kitty had dropped by $8.48 billion to $644.39 billion.
'Suddenly we had a new comprehension of affairs, which reminded that the luxury of politics floated atop a foundation by economics.' 'Along with this, finance ministers became crucial in molding the perception and reputation of Union Cabinets.' 'Governments couldn't afford a wrong person in that portfolio,' asserts Shyam G Menon.
The RBI is likely to reduce the key interest rate by 25 basis points this week after keeping it on hold for two years, complementing the Union Budget initiatives to push consumption-led demand, though the sliding rupee continues to be a concern. As the retail inflation has remained within the Reserve Bank's comfort zone (less than 6 per cent) for most of the year, the central bank can take rate action to boost growth hit by sluggish consumption, opined experts.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Tata Motors, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, Asian Paints, Nestle India, UltraTech Cement, Larsen & Toubro and Adani Ports were among the biggest gainers. In contrast, Zomato, HCL Tech, Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Infosys were among the losers.
The RBI has changed the way it approached supervision in the past. Having seen a couple of collapses in the NBFC sector and the near-collapse of a few banks, it is focusing on regular drills to prevent a fire from breaking out, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The United States has temporarily suspended foreign assistance to Pakistan for re-evaluation following an executive order issued by President Donald Trump, according to a media report on Tuesday.
From the Sensex pack, Zomato, HDFC Bank, Tech Mahindra, Adani Ports, Tata Consultancy Services, ICICI Bank, Sun Pharma, Larsen & Toubro, HCL Tech and ITC were the major laggards. On the other hand, Tata Motors, Nestle, Titan, Hindustan Unilever and Reliance Industries were among the gainers.
The Indian Navy has received a replacement MQ-9B Sea Guardian drone from General Atomics after one of its leased drones crashed into the Bay of Bengal in September 2023. The new drone replaces the one lost in a "controlled ditching" due to a technical snag. The Indian Navy has also leased two MQ-9B drones from General Atomics in 2020, and India has signed a deal to procure 31 Predator drones from General Atomics for USD 4 billion. The supply of these drones will begin in January 2029. The Navy is also pushing for another indigenously-built aircraft carrier to replace INS Vikramaditya, which is expected to have a lifespan of another 10 years.
Ask rediffGURU and PF expert Milind Vadjikar your insurance, stocks, mutual fund and personal finance-related questions.
The rupee remains overvalued against the currencies of India's trading partners, even as it hit record lows against the dollar in August and September. According to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) real effective exchange rate (REER) index, the rupee stood at 5.5 per cent above its fair value in August, down from 7.7 per cent in July. This slight easing followed fears of a US recession and the unwinding of yen carry trades, which exerted pressure on the Indian currency.
Gold prices rallied Rs 910 to hit a fresh all-time high of Rs 83,750 per 10 grams in the national capital on Wednesday due to heavy buying from jewellers and retailers, according to the All India Sarafa Association. The precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity had settled at Rs 82,840 per 10 grams in the previous trading session.
The US move to align with Russia is prompted by fear of a Sino-Russian joint threat. Russia, fully aware of its military vulnerability vis a vis China may cautiously welcome the American move, assesses Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
Investors' sentiments will be guided by a host of domestic and global macroeconomic data announcements this week, along with the trading activity of foreign investors and trends in world stocks, analysts said. Besides, the rupee-dollar trend and movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be crucial in dictating terms in the market, experts added.
United States President Donald Trump on Thursday announced the extradition of the 26/11 Mumbai terror attack accused Tahawwur Rana to India and said he will face justice.
The country's forex reserves dropped by a further $8.48 billion to $644.39 billion for the week ended December 20, the RBI said on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the reserves had dropped by $1.988 billion to a six-month low of $652.87 billion.
Trump on February 1 had announced tariffs on major US trading partners Canada, Mexico and China. He imposed a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports and a 10 per cent on goods from China.
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