Gold prices are expected to remain volatile next week as investors track geopolitical developments in the Middle East and key macroeconomic data releases that could shape the sentiment in the domestic market, analysts said.
The clock on the ceasefire is running out. But everyone's already whispering about round two, possibly as soon as this weekend.
A combination of factors, including heavy investments in US Treasury bonds and dollar sales at a healthy profit, facilitated the Indian central bank in transferring a record surplus of Rs 2.11 trillion to the government for 2023-24 (FY24). The RBI's dollar purchases increased in FY24, supported by robust capital inflows endorsing the economy's health.
In the wake of the FTA between India and the European Union, the United States has described the Europeans as 'very disappointing', saying they were unwilling to join Washington, DC in putting tariffs on New Delhi for its purchases of Russian oil because of this trade deal.
Indian refiners are negotiating for additional crude cargoes from the US, Russia, and West Africa to ensure adequate supplies amid Middle East tensions. Refineries are maintaining normal processing rates and deferring maintenance to build reserves. The move comes as conflict impacts tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy transit route.
Gold has emerged as the most stable asset during episodes of geopolitical stress, and crude oil has been more sensitive than others when it comes to regional conflicts and sanctions, according to a report in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monthly bulletin. Silver and the United States Treasury have showed moderate reactions.
Alliances fight wars effectively only when they share an endgame. If Israel acted without US knowledge, then the military alliance is operating without real coordination at the level of strategic targeting. Neither picture is reassuring in a war that is no longer regional in its consequences. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott has directed state agencies and public universities to suspend new H-1B visa petitions through May 2027, a move likely to affect Indian professionals. The order comes amid ongoing debate over skilled immigration and potential impacts on academic research and innovation.
Gold and silver prices are poised to maintain their record-setting rally in the coming week as investors focus on global inflation data and key macroeconomic indicators that shape central bank policy paths, analysts said.
As in-person negotiations between India and the US kickstarted on Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expected India to strike the first bilateral trade deal to avert President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs.
Glimpses of US President Donald Trump's arrival in Tokyo, Japan, for the second stop on his Asia tour, October 27, 2025.
'We expect modest returns in 2026 versus the steep gains seen over the past few years.'
I am inclined to believe that the Venezuela adventure is not an indication of American strength, alas, but rather of American weakness, points out Rajeev Srinivasan.
China has made serious inroads into Latin America, which the US may now be hinting is simply not ok: Stay in your lane, Xi! In simple terms, China will no longer have access to Venezuelan oil, points out Rajeev Srinivasan.
Bajaj Finance, Bharat Electronics, Tata Steel, Tata Consultancy Services, NTPC, Trent, Asian Paints and Axis Bank were the major laggards among Sensex stocks. However, Tech Mahindra, ICICI Bank, Power Grid, Hindustan Unilever and Reliance Industries were among the gainers.
Describing the India-United States relationship as 'very complicated', US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday hoped that 'at the end of the day, we will come together.'
Trump's post on Truth Social comes a day after the US asked G7 countries to impose tariffs on countries purchasing oil from Russia.
The US Department of the Treasury on Wednesday imposed sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, in an effort to pressure the Kremlin to end its war in Ukraine.
Foreign investors have pulled out nearly Rs 18,000 crore from Indian equities so far this month, weighed down by escalating US-India trade tensions, disappointing first-quarter corporate earnings, and a weakening Indian rupee. With this, the total outflow by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) in equities has reached Rs 1.13 lakh crore so far in 2025, according to data from the depositories.
New investors should not allow themselves to fall prey to FOMO and rush headlong into gold.
China sits on a mountain of United States treasury debt, reinforcing its position as the world's number one holder of US treasury securities with a total of $895.2 billion. China's foreign exchange reserves too stood at a mammoth $2.45 trillion at the end of March 2010.
As the rally in precious metals takes centre stage in 2025, most analysts recommend a larger allocation to gold over silver despite the latter's outperformance this year. In the current calendar year (CY25), spot gold prices in dollar terms rallied
Sanctioning Russian oil would have led to a sharp surge in oil prices to above $80 per barrel levels, which would impact pump prices in the US ahead of midterm elections next year.
Whether Trump will actually press ahead with the oil sanctions remains unclear, since keeping Russian oil out of the world market risks high oil prices which could boomerang on the US economy and be damaging politically for Trump, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Gold prices on Tuesday surged Rs 723 to touch an all-time high of Rs 110,312 per 10 grams in the domestic futures market, tracking strong global cues amid growing expectations of a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week. Traders said weak US labour market data has strengthened the case for monetary policy easing, putting pressure on the dollar and boosting demand for the safe-haven asset.
Yes, the entry of private bankers, particularly with global experience will add value to PSBs, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Sullivan remarks come amid the rising friction between Washington and New Delhi due to the 50 percent tariffs imposed on Indian goods, which include a 25 percent penalty for buying Russian oil.
United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned that the secondary tariffs on India could go up if 'things don't go well' during talks between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Tuesday once again claimed that United States President Donald Trump has ended the military conflict between India and Pakistan.
There were apprehensions that additional secondary tariffs would have hit India in case the US decided to enforce them.
The Trump administration has launched a premium immigration programme targeting wealthy individuals worldwide, offering permanent residency in the United States through expensive 'Gold Cards' that could generate billions in revenue for the American Treasury.
Gold and silver prices are expected to maintain their upward trajectory this week, but may see late profit-booking amid the release of a series of crucial global economic indicators, analysts said. On the economic front, traders will closely monitor the manufacturing/ services PMI data from across regions and the US non-farm payrolls/ employment data along with consumer confidence for the month of September and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, they added.
The statement did not name any country. But the US has often blamed India and China for purchasing Russian oil even when there are no tariffs on Beijing for it.
The US House Foreign Affairs Committee Democrats stated that imposing tariffs on India will not deter Russian President Vladimir Putin or address Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar defends India's purchase of Russian oil, stating it is not the largest purchaser and that the US had previously supported such actions to stabilize energy markets. He also addresses concerns about tariffs and trade relations with the US.
Paulson has also taken a dig at China "for not being bold" despite the fact that Beijing is integrated into the global economy.
Russia has a "special mechanism" to confront any challenge arising out of the US slapping punitive measures against India for its procurement of Russian crude oil, Russian charge d'affaires Roman Babushkin said on Wednesday.
Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on Tuesday expressed hope that India will conclude the proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA) with the US by the fall or November this year. He said that "a little bit" of geopolitical issues overtook the trade matters in the negotiations for the pact between the two countries.
'Things may get much worse before they get better,' predicts Ajay Chhibber.
Geithner had told President Barack Obama that he would leave his cabinet by this summer as his family has moved to New York.
