'Should you give a man fish, or teach him how to fish?' 'Lurking hidden in the new bout of welfarism seems to be an admission that the State can't deliver for the poor anything other than cash,' notes T N Ninan.
'A sustainable growth rate of 8 per cent is evidently some distance away,' says T N Ninan.
'If he were to ask me, I would tell Mr Modi that the real Congress legacy he has to undo is not Nehru's social and political philosophy -- which fits India perfectly -- but his daughter's economic philosophy,' says T C A Srinivasa Raghavan.
How much are others responsible for the Trump presidency moving in the directions it has, asks T N Ninan.
'The failures of private businessmen have set back the process of market-oriented reform, though that is the only way forward,' argues T N Ninan.
New body to replace Plan panel might retain 40% of existing staff
'Even if the Congress bags two of the three heartland states in the assembly round, the BJP may still get the majority of Lok Sabha seats in these states,' predicts T N Ninan.
'We are moving away from the Modi promise of less government,' says T N Ninan.
'If the RBI board forces the management's hand on all the key issues, it should be prepared for resignations by the governor and the key deputy governor, Viral Acharya,' warns T N Ninan.
'Nationalism built on divisiveness cannot strengthen the country, or help the economy improve its performance,' points out T N Ninan.
'The rupee has lost value against all other major Asian currencies, including that of Bangladesh and, of course, China.' 'Why should this be the case when the Indian economy has been growing faster than these economies, other than China?'
'All but one of the previous oil shocks brought either a change of government or a political crisis.' 'Is the government braced for stormy weather?' asks T N Ninan.
Experts will give their inputs for Budget.
'As he goes down, he will almost certainly drag a few others down with him.' 'Once the mutual mudslinging has died down, collateral damage will probably include more bankers than politicians, given the nature of how things work in India,' says T N Ninan.
'Else they will form a growing 'hospital sector' -- and the taxpayer will be asked to pick up a mounting bill,' warns T N Ninan.
'India has jackboot laws legislated by all parties, a State prepared to stomp all over you, and citizens who don't often realise how easily they can be crushed under both,' says T N Ninan.
'The government must find worthwhile private owners for some of the banks, increase the share of private sector banking in the system, and then ask the remaining government banks to face the discipline of the market and compete, or shrink into irrelevance,' says T N Ninan.
'Milking poorly performing or easily marketable assets is the way to deliver more money for key programmes,' says T N Ninan.
'Banks, fund managers, NBFCs, rating agencies, those buying into debt funds -- all of them will have to watch their step as India's financial system enters a new phase,' warns T N Ninan.
'The air force continues to be short of planes.' 'So, more than a decade after the last selection round got under way, the same process is about to start again for the same kind of aircraft, naturally with the same likely bidders,' points out T N Ninan.
'No other language can now take its place. English is the language of professional education, which gives you a passport to a bright future,' says T N Ninan.
'We are not talking pennies. The milk business is as large as the automobile industry (about Rs 4 trillion in sales),' points out T N Ninan.
'You look with hope at a politician who comes along and promises to change all that: 10 million new jobs every year, no need to touch someone's feet to get an introduction to an employer. And fix the corrupt guys who have made the system what it is.' 'But five years later, the reality has changed little or not at all,' says T N Ninan.
That is the number for job creation that India needs to achieve, argues T N Ninan.
'2019 now looks like a real contest.' 'It will not be a repeat of 2014 if the BJP has to deal with erosion of its already low vote share of 31 per cent, and also faces a united Opposition,' says T N Ninan.
The boom in organised retail will set the tone for major economic overhaul. The ripple effect will be improved supply chains, volume output, integration into global commerce, and higher tax collection, notes T N Ninan.
While the BJP has taken a beating, its leader still stands tall, points out T N Ninan.
A modern economy with strong global linkages must switch to million, billion and so on, says T N Ninan.
Maruti, which is majority owned by Suzuki Motors of Japan, pays massive tax, generates huge employment (its staff are almost entirely Indians) and also makes its investors extremely rich. JLR, on the other hand, though owned by Tata has its factories in England and China and in every way (sales, employment, technology) has nothing Indian about it.
The problem is not GST itself, but the nature of an economy dominated by small businesses unable to cope with the complexities of the tax, points out T N Ninan.
'The history of Moody's India ratings tells its own story,' points out T N Ninan.
In a sharp attack on the Narendra Modi government, BJP leader Arun Shourie on Monday contended that it believes that managing economy means "managing the headlines" and that people had started recalling the days of former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
'While we may aspire to be a democratic if smaller version of China, we may only manage to become a larger, more accomplished Indonesia,' says T N Ninan.
'The only way to minimise logical inconsistencies and confusion is to develop the two rates of 12% and 18% as the ones that apply to almost all items.' 'At a later stage, these two rates could be merged into a single rate,' advises T N Ninan.
'Economically, if there are too many losers, macro-demand will suffer and undercut growth.' 'In more developed societies, the issue is resolved through the provision of safety nets, which don't exist in India.' points out T N Ninan.
'In macroeconomic policy, timing is all, and by leaving things too late, Mr Modi may have made around 50 seats in the Lok Sabha highly vulnerable,' says T C A Srinivasa Raghavan.
'The Make in India target of getting manufacturing to account for 25% of GDP by 2022 is quite impossible to achieve.' 'As for the role of technology in the average Indian's life, it is still quite basic -- mobile phones and Mars successes notwithstanding,' says T N Ninan.
'An upswing in corporate performance should last at least three years.' 'Today there is some concern globally about excessive debt, which could cause unpredictable shocks down the road.' 'Domestically, if the minders of the economy are watchful about over-heating, we could avoid a repetition of the boom-bust cycle of the past,' says T N Ninan.
'Clearly, the financial system is a drag on the economy and underlines the need for improving banking practice, regulation and oversight.' 'Without that, and an end to the cronyism that caused part of the problem, one can kiss goodbye to 8% growth,' warns T N Ninan.
'China has reclaimed, after two years, its mantle as the world's fastest-growing large economy.' 'This, when its working age population is shrinking, while ours is growing.' 'And talking of jobs, China expects to create 11 million urban jobs this year; for India, don't ask,' says T N Ninan.
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