The finance ministry and Reserve Bank of India have reservations on the computation of inflation data on a monthly basis, a senior government official said on Thursday. Finance Minister P Chidambaram will have to meet the Reserve Bank to reach a consensus on the committee's suggestions to have a new series of WPI on a monthly basis, he said on the sidelines of a function to release the results of the Fifth Economic Census.
Inflation will stay in double digits till January, before cooling off, chief statistician Pronab Sen said on Thursday. He attributed his projections to base effect, which is the impact of inflation in a year-ago period and second round effect of commodity prices like those of oil and steel.
Since January 2021, the inflation rate in health has stood in the range of 6.08-8.44 per cent.
If the prime minister says clearly there is going to be no NRC and that the Census will drop the NPR questions, the Census will proceed. He will not, observes Aakar Patel.
Some research agencies such as Edelweiss Capital had earlier pointed out that inflation will be near zero in the second half of 2009 on account of economic slowdown and falling commodity prices.
Pronab Sen assumed charge as the Chief Statistician of India on February 21, at a time when the country's economy is booming.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) is in talks with the Department of Posts to take the help of its staff in collecting sample data for the proposed Consumer Price Index for Rural India (CPI-R). The data for the index would be collected from 1,000 villages, Chief Statistician of India Pronab Sen said on the sidelines of a national seminar on the results of the 61st round of the National Sample Survey.
The government on Friday said a new pharmaceutical policy would be announced shortly based on the recommendations of the Pronab Sen Task Force.
"The final estimates in agriculture are much higher. It could be 3.5 per cent in the revised estimates," statistics and programme implementation secretary Pronab Sen said on Thursday, a day ahead of release of GDP growth figures for FY'08.
Sticking to its recommendations of de-branding essential drugs and a single regulatory authority for drug pricing, the Pronab Sen Task Force on Tuesday submitted its final report to Chemical and Fertilisers Minister Ramvilas Paswan.
The big guys have access to funds overseas, and their cost of borrowing does not change at all. If anything, a tighter domestic monetary situation gives them a comparative advantage when it comes to the cost of borrowed funds.
Among possible new members, former chief economic advisor Arvind Virmani's name is doing the rounds.
It is time the government cast its net wide for seeking expert advice on managing the Indian economy and formed a group to help it navigate the difficult days ahead, advises A K Bhattacharya.
'The robust tax collections give the finance minister a fair amount of headroom for an expansionary fiscal policy.'
'I expect fourth quarter GDP growth to be sharply down.' 'I would imagine it would shave off at least one percentage point, if not more, as compared to the third quarter.'
Business activity contracted in Q2 FY20, the first contraction since 2013-14 and the second since the 2008 global financial crisis, report, Abhishek Waghmare and Anup Roy.
In fact, India's investment activity growth is also estimated to touch a 17-year low in FY20. With overall demand not showing signs of revival, investment activity may take longer to recover, economists said.
Measures that quickly boost demand and increase employment are needed to push up growth. Moreover, without announcing new planss, the government should strengthen schemes such as PM KISAN, MNREGA and programmes to build rural roads.
C P Chandrasekhar, who has served on key statistical panels in the past both as a chairman and member, said he was present in the campus when the ruckus broke out on Sunday and found the incident "disturbing" and "unprecedented", and that it further undermined the faith in the system. Somesh Jha reports.
They say that a stimulus package may not be necessary because, unlike last year's total lockdown, public transport, including the railways and airlines, is running and the restrictions on movement are localised and, in some cases, are partial rather than total.
'How low GDP would have been, we don't know.' 'It raises serious questions because so many indicators are pointing to such a sharp decline and GDP estimates are still showing 4 per cent growth.'
'The real lifting of the economy will happen only if this momentum sustains in the coming months.'
'If you see the composition of items which are causing this spike in prices, most of them have little to do with the kharif harvest, except for pulses and vegetables to some extent.' 'I don't know on what basis the government is claiming that food prices will moderate in the weeks to come.'
Country's economic growth at 9% requires exports to rise by around 20%, says NSC chairman Pronab Sen
The 14-member task-force will develop a working definition of poverty.
Since March 2020, WPI food inflation rate continued to fall but the CPI-food inflation rose, signaling a breakdown in supply chain from the mandis to the final household.
Dr Rakesh Mohan, former RBI deputy governor, and Dr Pronab Sen, former chairman of the Indian Statistical Commission discuss the issues facing the Indian rural and manufacturing sectors and what the government must possibly do to improve demand and perk up the Indian economy
Economists, however, caution against interpreting the data as a broad-based revival
Dissatisfaction with the state leadership, along with caste and sectarian factors and economic issues -- particularly those relating to jobs and rural distress cost the BJP.
The report stated the 2013 land Act was a step forward.
Experts say the party is undoing what it achieved through MNREGA by targeting beneficiaries
Data on the new series given by a panel on real sector statistics shows that GDP grew by 10.23 per cent in 2007-08 and 10.78 per cent in 2010-11. There are some years for which the new figures show a deceleration in growth as well. The new series has 2011-12 as the base year while the earlier series had 2004-05 and 1993-94.
Listening -- really listening -- to advisers in the government and outside would help. India has plenty of wise economists who have worked within the bureaucracy during previous crises, points out Rahul Jacob.
The government's decision to release the reports comes two days after over 200 scholars from across the globe issued a statement demanding release of all withheld reports produced by the NSO, including the household consumer expenditure survey that was junked.
The revision of the consumer price index and GDP base years from 2011-12 and 2012, respectively, were dependent on the outcomes of the consumer expenditure survey of 2017-18 that the government decided to junk recently.
The findings of the report showed consumer spending falling for the first time in over four decades in 2017-18. The government has, however, termed it a "draft" report, reports Somesh Jha.
Much of the rural recovery story is based on the premise of agriculture doing well. Even if it clocks a growth of 2.5-3 per cent this year, it is still just around 15 per cent of the overall GDP. The non-farm sector, which constitutes a bigger portion of the overall rural economy, is now hampered by disruptions and lockdowns.
There will be a dramatic alteration in the role the Centre and the states will play to shape India's fiscal and economic destiny, report Nitin Sethi and Ishan Bakshi.
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