Also, the monsoon this year may end up being the driest since 2015, which recorded a rainfall deficit of 13 per cent, they said.
The southwest monsoon season concluded on Saturday with India receiving 'below-average' cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in an El Nino year.
The Southwest Monsoon is set to arrive early with the Andaman and Nicobar Islands expected to receive first seasonal showers on May 15, the weather office said on Thursday.
Kerala has been receiving rainfall since Saturday and 10 out of the 14 weather monitoring stations in the state have received more than 2.5 mm rains.
The depression will intensify into a deep depression --- the third and fourth stage of any cyclone formation --- by this evening. It will intensify into a cyclonic storm by June 2, the Cyclone Warning Division of the IMD said.
The IMD had said the Southwest Monsoon would hit parts of north India including Delhi on July 10, but it had not occurred till Sunday evening.
"We are expecting that the temperature will be higher than normal in the entire northwest India and the adjoining central India, starting with Gujarat, Rajasthan and up to east Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh," he said at a virtual event on 'Building Climate Resilience for the Most Heat Vulnerable'.
The southwest monsoon might finally start withdrawing from parts of North-West India over the next three days, signaling the end of its four-month journey over the country that started in June, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. However, though the retreat might begin from next week, the rains might not descend quickly, as the met department predicted fresh spells of rains in Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and east MP on September 21-22 and over Odisha, Coastal areas north Andhra Pradesh and Gangetic West Bengal on September 19-21. "Due to anti-cyclonic flows over northwest India at lower tropospheric levels, dry weather is very likely over west Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi during the next five days. "Hence conditions are becoming favourable for the withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from parts of northwest India during next three days," the IMD said.
The rainfall in July was minus seven per cent which comes to around 93 per cent of the Long Period Average, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.
Skymet says the IMD ignored the required criterion of two days of necessary rainfall to declare a proper onset of monsoon, reports Sanjeeb Mukherjee.
Several global models are predicting El Nio to appear around the second half of the year, which are the crucial rain-bearing months.
Climate change has hampered the ability of the forecasting agencies to accurately predict severe events and weather bureaus across the world are focusing on augmenting the observational network density and the weather prediction modelling to improve predictability, India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra has said.
It rained in the periphery of Delhi -- Aligarh in Uttar Pradesh and Karnal in Haryana -- but clouds hovered over the national capital, without giving any relief from the heat.
Traffic was thrown out of gear; visibility dipped, leading to delays in flights.
Data from department of agriculture showed that kharif crops had been sown in around 31.56 million hectares till Friday, which was 104.25 per cent more than the same period last year. Acreage of almost all crops was higher than last year.
IMD said on Tuesday that the cyclone has a wind speed of 100-110 kmph and gusting to 120 kmph. The coastal areas of Tamil Nadu are expected to receive heavy rain between November 23-26.
IMD Director General Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that 'Yaas' is likely to intensify into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm by Tuesday evening and Chandbali is likely to witness the maximum damage caused by it.
Monsoon in August was almost 24 per cent below normal, which was the sixth driest August since 1901. It came on the back of a 7-per cent monsoon shortfall in July.
The Amarnath pilgrimage resumed on Monday after remaining suspended for three days following flash floods that claimed 15 lives, while the Jammu and Kashmir administration said it would get a clear picture by Tuesday about the damage.
'There's also a possibility of the cyclonic system changing its course, thus avoiding a landfall in Odisha'
Santosh Patkar of Devgadh Taluka Sindhudurg district of Maharashtra is a worried man these days. Devgadh, which is known as the home to world famous Alphonso variety of mangoes, has seen an unusual drop in yields which is affecting farmers' income. Being one of the primary agricultural produce from the area, Santosh is not untouched by this somewhat rare phenomenon. He said in his own mango garden, yields have come down by a third from most trees.
In Uttar Pradesh, the death toll due to lightning strikes rose to 42.
With rainfall and monsoons becoming highly unpredictable partly due to climate change and partly due to usual changes in weather patterns, it is such innovations by IMD which will help in planning better, reports Sanjeeb Mukherjee.
The news will augur well for the country as large parts have been witnessing agriculture distress and water levels in reservoirs in west and south India have dipped to low levels.
'It is the most prone month for the development of cyclones in the pre-monsoon period.'
IMD has decided to increasingly use cutting-edge technology such as artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in forecasting, both to avoid such glitches and to counter the disruption of normal seasonal patterns as a result of climate change. It has formed various internal sub-groups of senior officials and meteorologists to decide on how best to use AI and ML in predicting cyclone intensity, and in making short-range weather forecasts (those valid for up to three hours) as well as long-range forecasts.
West Bengal and Odisha have evacuated lakhs of people from vulnerable areas to safety as severe cyclonic storm 'Yaas' is nearing the coast and is expected to make landfall near Dhamra Port in Bhadrak district early on Wednesday morning.
The weatherman said when 'Amphan' makes the landfall between West Bengal's Digha, some 180 km from Kolkata, and Hatiya island in Bangladesh on Wednesday afternoon or evening, it will pack sustained wind speed of 155 to 165 kmph, gusting at 185 kmph. The gale-force wind, blowing at a speed of 240 to 250 kmph and gusting to 275 kmph at one point, had lost intensity and was moving at a speed of 200 to 210 kmph, gusting to 230 kmph on Tuesday evening.
The cyclone would bring light to moderate rains at most places and 'heavy to very heavy downpour' at some places on November 6.
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