Gold imports climbed 349.22 per cent to $12.07 billion in January, while silver imports rose 127 per cent to $2 billion.
India will now face a lower reciprocal tariff of 10 per cent, down from 25 per cent, after US President Donald Trump announced a new global levy on items imported into America in the wake of the Supreme Court verdict against his sweeping duties on several nations.
India has completely protected the interests of its agriculture and dairy sector in the India-US trade agreement.
A trade deal makes sense only if it is fair and reciprocal. If the cost is strategic dependence or loss of policy space, waiting is the wiser option, asserts Ajay Srivastava.
'There is a lot of euphoria in the country after a trade agreement is signed. But it is an illusion for us. What is more important is making it real.'
The European Union (EU) has suspended export benefits to sectors such as textiles and plastics under a preferential scheme for India and two other countries from January 1, a move that will impact the country's shipment to the 27-nation bloc. The development is important as the two sides are likely to announce the closure of negotiations for a free tarde agreement (FTA) on January 27.
'The immediate impact for India will be very minimal as the share of Venezuela in our total overseas production is very low.'
A 500 per cent tariff would effectively shut out India's goods and services exports to the US.
'Trump says India will buy over $500 billion of US goods.' 'At present, India's annual imports of goods and energy from the US are under $50 billion.' 'Reaching $500 billion would likely require more than 20 years, suggesting the figure refers to a long-term aspiration rather than a near-term commitment.'
India's trade deficit with China is expected to reach $106 billion in 2025 as imports are rising faster than the country's exports to the neighbouring country, think tank GTRI said on Friday.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to India this week aims to secure energy supplies, stabilise defence deliveries and ensure bilateral trade continues smoothly despite strong Western sanctions, GTRI said on Tuesday.
'A deal will only be possible if India stops buying Russian oil -- but even then, New Delhi must not compromise its core red lines.'
Under an Executive Order issued by the US administration on July 30, 2025, goods valued above USD 100 will be subject to customs duties in America with effect from August 29 onwards.
'What India has done will surely embolden more countries to stand up to Trump.'
The bilateral trade between India and China has been growing at a healthy rate, but the trade gap remains sharply tilted in Beijing's favour. India has time and again flagged its concern over the ballooning trade deficit and the non-trade barriers faced by Indian goods in the Chinese market.
'India did not surrender. That was why he wanted to pressurise India by this 25% tariffs.'
The USA's steep 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods entering America will severely impact exports and job creation in labour-intensive export sectors such as shrimp, apparel, leather and gems and jewellery. Exporters said that the imposition of a 25 per cent penalty on India over and above the 25 per cent tariffs move will disrupt the flow of Indian goods to its largest export market.
Communication channels between India and the US are open to resolve the ongoing tariff issues, and the glitch in trade ties is only temporary, given the long-term relationship between the two nations, government sources said on Wednesday. The US' 50 per cent tariffs on Indian exports to America came into effect from August 27, barring a few sectors.
China's export curbs on critical minerals crucial for India's electronics sectors are no longer mere warnings but a wake-up call for New Delhi, underscoring the need for urgent measures like reverse-engineering of low- to mid-tech imports to cut overreliance on Beijing, think tank GTRI said on Thursday.
Strategic affairs experts express concern over US President Donald Trump's tariffs on India, his 'bullying tactics,' and increasing attempts to hyphenate New Delhi with Islamabad, signaling a potential shift in the bilateral relationship.
From labelling India the 'Tariff King' to slapping sweeping import duties, US President Donald Trump has steadily hardened his trade stance on India. These announcements are being seen as a pressure tactic to get New Delhi to agree to demands made by the US in the proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA).
'Geopolitically and diplomatically it's a very difficult situation for India.'
The US is expected to push for sweeping changes in India's policies, ranging from tariff reductions to regulatory overhauls, that could benefit American firms and exporters, under the proposed bilateral trade agreement with India, think tank GTRI said on Sunday.
India's merchandise exports to the US rose by 16.93 per cent to $8.83 billion in May, while imports dipped by 5.76 per cent to $3.62 billion during the month, according to the commerce ministry data. During April-May, the country's exports to the US increased by 21.78 per cent to $17.25 billion, while imports rose by 25.8 per cent to $8.87 billion, the data showed.
US President Donald Trump's plan to sign an executive order to cut prescription drug prices by 30-80 per cent could lead to a global price adjustment with pharma firms pushing lower-cost countries like India to raise prices, according to the economic think tank GTRI. The US move could push prices in lower-cost countries like India as manufacturers would seek to recover losses and R&D costs from these nations.
India's proposal to impose retaliatory import duty on certain US products in response to American tariffs on steel and aluminium could cast a shadow over ongoing negotiations for a trade agreement between the two countries, think tank GTRI said on Tuesday. The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said that if the US engages in consultations with India on the matter or withdraws tariffs, a resolution may be reached.
Goods from sectors, including agriculture, precious stones, chemicals, pharma, medical devices, electricals, and machinery may get impacted if the US will go ahead with imposing reciprocal tariffs on Indian products, according to experts. They said that these sectors could face additional customs duties from the Trump administration because of the high tariff differential or gap, which is the difference between the import duties imposed by the US and India on a product.
India must be cautious while negotiating the proposed bilateral trade agreement with the US, as the absence of Fast Track Trade Authority in America makes any pact vulnerable to Congressional changes, economic think tank GTRI said on Tuesday. It also said that the certification process allows the US to effectively re-negotiate the trade agreement after it is signed, demanding domestic legal changes, regulatory reforms, and policy shifts that could undermine India's sovereignty.
India's trade deficit with China neared $100 billion in FY25, amid escalating concerns of dumping, data released by the commerce department on Wednesday showed. Chinese imports rose by 11.5 per cent to $113.45 billion, while outbound shipments to the neighbouring country saw 14.5 per cent contraction to $14.2 billion.
'No retaliatory tariffs now. You can retaliate after a few months.' 'Today, there is no need to retaliate because it is a question of long term benefits.'
'Many of these issues will be resolved within 6 months because the US economy has started unravelling.'
Imposition of high tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada by the US is expected to help Indian exporters in increasing their shipments to the American market, experts say.
Essential and strategic items such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper, and energy products like oil, gas, coal and LNG are exempted from the 27 per cent import duty announced by the US on Wednesday, according to think tank GTRI.
'April 9 announcement of slapping a 125% tariff on Chinese goods has brought the focus back to China, making this new phase feel like a repeat of the original conflict.'
The depreciation of Indian rupee against the US dollar is expected to push the country's import bill by about $15 billion, think tank GTRI said on Thursday. Compared to December last year, the Indian Rupee (INR) has depreciated 2.34 per cent against the US dollar, moving from Rs 83.25 to Rs 85.20, while the Chinese Yuan has weakened by 0.06 per cent, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said.
The Budget has given signals that India is sensitive to the US needs and willing to walk the extra mile, but if need be, we should respond in equal measure as a sovereign nation, notes Ajay Srivastava.
'If you compare the data from 2017 and 2023 of the US imports from the world and China, you will see that the US was a complete loser in the trade war, and China was a complete gainer.'
The commerce ministry is working on different scenarios to assess the possible fallout of reciprocal tariffs to be imposed by the US administration on April 2 on its key trading partners including India, sources said. US President Donald Trump has said that April 2 will be 'Liberation Day' as he plans to announce tariffs or import duties to bring down America's trade deficit, and promote the country's manufacturing.
The trade war between the US and China is expected to benefit Indian exporters in increasing their shipments to the American market, sources said. They said the country was the fourth-largest gainer when the US imposed higher duties on Chinese goods during US President Donald Trump's first tenure.
The weaker rupee will push the country's import bill due to higher payments for crude oil, coal, vegetable oil, gold, diamonds, electronics, machinery, plastics, and chemicals, economic think tank GTRI said on Friday. Citing an example, it said the depreciating domestic currency will increase India's gold import bill, especially as global gold prices have jumped 31.25 per cent, rising from $65,877 per kg in January 2024 to $86,464 per kg in January 2025.
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