US, Iran explore 45-day ceasefire as mediators push for deal

Amid rising tensions, the US and Iran are reportedly in negotiations, mediated by regional powers, to establish a 45-day ceasefire and prevent a devastating escalation of conflict in the Middle East.

An emergency responder works at an impact site, following a barrage of missiles launched from Iran, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in central Israel

IMAGE: An emergency responder works at an impact site, following a barrage of missiles launched from Iran, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in central Israel. Photograph: Florion Goga/Reuters

Key Points

The US and Iran are engaged in talks, mediated by regional actors, for a potential 45-day ceasefire.
The proposed ceasefire aims to prevent a wider conflict involving strikes on Iranian infrastructure and retaliation against Gulf states.
Key issues in the negotiations include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's enriched uranium stockpile.
Mediators are seeking confidence-building measures from both sides to ensure the ceasefire's longevity and prevent a return to hostilities.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has warned that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will never return to pre-war conditions, especially for the US and Israel.

The United States, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war, according to sources cited by Axios.

Chances for reaching a partial deal in the next 48 hours are slim, according to US, Israeli, and regional sources with knowledge of the talks.

Mediators have warned Iranian officials that time is running out to reach a deal and prevent significant destruction in Iran.

These efforts are seen as a last chance to prevent a dramatic escalation of the war, which could include strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure and retaliation against energy and water facilities in the Gulf states.

The deadline for Iran, previously extended by 20 hours, was set by President Trump for Tuesday at 8pm ET.

An operational plan for a US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran's energy facilities is reportedly ready, but the deadline extension aims to allow for a final chance at a deal.

Negotiations are taking place through Pakistani, Egyptian, and Turkish mediators, as well as via text messages between Trump's special envoy and Iran's Foreign Minister.

The Trump administration has presented several proposals to Iran, but Iranian officials have not yet accepted them.

Ceasefire Terms and Conditions

Mediators are discussing a two-phased deal, beginning with a 45-day ceasefire during which a permanent end to the war would be negotiated. The ceasefire could be extended if more time is needed.

The second phase would involve an agreement on ending the war, potentially including fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz and addressing Iran's highly enriched uranium, either through removal or dilution.

Mediators are working on confidence-building measures regarding the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's uranium stockpile.

Iran is unlikely to fully concede on these issues for only a 45-day ceasefire.

Mediators are exploring partial steps Iran could take on these issues during the first phase of the deal.

They are also seeking guarantees from the Trump administration that the ceasefire will not be temporary and that the war will not resume.

Iranian officials have expressed concerns about a ceasefire that could be violated at any time by the US and Israel.

Mediators are working on other US confidence-building measures to address Iran's demands.

The White House has declined to comment.

Concerns About Regional Retaliation

Mediators are highly concerned that Iranian retaliation for a US-Israeli strike on Iran's energy infrastructure would be destructive for Gulf countries' oil and water facilities.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps navy has stated that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will "never return" to what it was before the war, especially for the U.S. and Israel.