'There Could Be More Violence In Pakistan'

'TTP has vowed to take revenge for the attacks that Pakistan is carrying out against Afghanistan.'
'To diminish this threat, Pakistan is hitting Afghanistan hard.'

A dangerous new phase is unfolding along the volatile border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, as fresh Pakistani airstrikes hit a drug rehabilitation facility hospital and causing heavy civilian casualties in Kabul killing 408 people.

At the heart of the crisis lie the unresolved question of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) sanctuaries in Afghanistan and the Taliban government's unwillingness to act against them.

With diplomacy stalled, mistrust deepening, and retaliation threats growing louder, this conflict is no longer a series of isolated incidents but a brewing strategic standoff with far-reaching consequences for regional security.

Syed Firdaus Ashraf/Rediff spoke to Avinash Mohananey, a retired Intelligence Bureau officer who spent a considerable time in Pakistan on security assignments, for his assessment of Pakistan's declared 'open war' against Afghanistan.

The last time we spoke, Pakistan had attacked Afghanistan on February 28 following a Shia Imambara attack in Islamabad and the TTP killing a serving Pakistan colonel in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Why did Pakistan bomb Afghanistan, and that too a drug rehabilitation hospital, in which 408 people were killed?

The underlying issues between the two countries remain unresolved. While Pakistan continues to blame the Afghan Taliban for providing safe sanctuaries to the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, the Afghan Taliban claims that it is an internal matter of Pakistan.

In its frustration for failing to stem the TTP's violence, the Pakistan establishment wants a convenient and militarily weak entity to pass on the blame.

The failure of the Pakistan army to force the Afghans into complete surrender so that it could dictate terms doesn’t seem to be happening, and hence the repeated and vicious attacks.

Pakistan feels that if it stopped the bombing campaign without a 'surrender' of the Afghan Taliban, there will be no let-up in the TTP violence.

Pakistan believes that if it can launch punitive strikes in Afghanistan, the Afghan Taliban will be forced to rein in the TTP.

Pakistan is also scared of the possibility of the Afghan Taliban using TTP sleeper cells across Pakistan to make the country pay a price for targeting Afghanistan.

Pakistan's Goals in Afghanistan

What then is Pakistan's goal for Afghanistan which it has not been able to achieve yet?

Firstly, Pakistan had claimed that decapitation of the Afghan Taliban leadership is on the table, but they have not been able to achieve the same.

The top Afghan leaders like supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada, Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani, Defence Minister Mullah Yaqoob, continue to be active. So, the attacks had to be continued.

Secondly, the Afghan Taliban have started using quad copters on the border in this asymmetric war, like the USA-Israel and Iran war.

Now, the Taliban would like to replicate the same thing in their war with Pakistan using reverse engineering of captured drones. They would like to use small payloads of drones to strike deep inside Pakistan, just like Iran is dong to attack US bases in the Middle East.

It is true that the Taliban can't fight a conventional war with Pakistan, and hence the use of drones.

Thirdly, Pakistan remains vulnerable to attacks by the TTP in Pakistan's hinterland. The TTP has vowed to take revenge for the attacks that Pakistan is carrying out against Afghanistan. To diminish this threat, Pakistan is hitting Afghanistan hard. This strategy doesn't seem to be working.

Fourthly, Pakistan has also refused to accept the Chinese suggestion for a ceasefire and dialogue to resolve all issues. Pakistan is insisting that first the Taliban should stop supporting the TTP leadership.

Attack on Drug Rehabilitation Centre

But why did they attack a hospital, that too a drug rehabilitation centre? Pakistan says it was a military base of Afghanistan. Can this be true?

I don't think Pakistan deliberately attacked the hospital in Kabul. The reality looks like Pakistan has no intelligence network in Afghanistan. I guess it is a piece of poor intelligence. So, it looks like a case of misjudgement.

But nevertheless, this act of Pakistan will anger the Taliban no bound and with the TTP already vowing revenge against Pakistan for this act, there could be more violence in Pakistan.

Since the world is more focussed on the US-Israel and Iran war, nobody is paying attention to this conflict. There is no international interest or some kind of international intervention to stop this skirmish.

The only interest was shown by China. Afghan Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi made the peace move by calling Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi seeking China's intervention.

Has Pakistan gained the upper hand in the war against Afghanistan?

They have not achieved anything yet.

Is it the game plan of the Pakistan establishment to create a 'common enemy' in the name of the Taliban to stay united as a nation in these difficult economic times due to the Iran war?

Partly one can agree to this point.

Pakistan is domestically in a bad shape. Its policy tilt towards America is not going down well among the Pakistani public. Pakistan has joined the Gaza peace board at the behest of the USA, which is not acceptable to the people of Pakistan, as they have strong anti-American sentiment cutting across the Shia-Sunni divide.

The killing of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei by US and Israel forces has also not gone down well among the people of Pakistan.

One more issue that affects Pakistan is that their foreign policy is made by military generals and not by Pakistani diplomats. The generals only know the military high-handed way to deal with things. They want to put another country into submission and that is the only way military generals understand to deal with Afghanistan.

This is not going to succeed. They have no understanding that once the Taliban develops drones, they can strike Pakistan across its length and breadth in this asymmetric war.

How is the public taking Pakistan's war on Afghanistan?

They are not happy with the way Pakistan's military is ruling the country. The media is censored in Pakistan and they are not allowed to write about public sentiment. They are just narrating what is told to them by the Pakistan army.

Nobody in the media speaks of public sentiment.

As such, people in Punjab, the largest province, are not much affected as to what is happening on the border.

'Taliban can pressurise TTP not to attack Pakistan'

Is the Taliban capable of controlling the Tehreek-e-Taliban to stop it from attacking Pakistan?

They have worked together in the past. Tehreek-e-Taliban has given crucial support to Taliban leaders during the US occupation of Afghanistan.

And to answer your question, yes, they can do that. They can pressurise the TTP to not attack Pakistan and tell them to get out of Afghanistan. Therefore, what Pakistan accuses the Taliban of supporting TTP is not a complete lie.

The trouble for Pakistan is that there is so much radicalisation in their own country that the TTP easily gets recruits. And that is why the Afghan Taliban says the TTP is an internal matter of Pakistan.

What role, if any, is the United States currently playing -- directly or indirectly -- in shaping this situation after its withdrawal from Afghanistan?

I don't think the US is paying any attention to the ongoing conflict. The only intervention that has come is from the Chinese who are suggesting peace talks between the two countries. The USA and other countries are silent on this issue.

How is the Taliban government responding to these attacks in the short, medium and long term against Pakistan?

In the short term, the Taliban has no military capability to confront Pakistan. This is absolutely clear by now. Conventional and military superiority is in Pakistan's favour.

In the medium term, the Taliban can activate their proxies and carry out attacks and create mayhem in Pakistan.

In the long term, Afghanistan will go the way that Iran has. They will develop capabilities in terms of drones by reverse engineering or some other method. They will soon develop the technology. It is just a matter of time. Once they do that, Pakistan will think 10 times before attacking Afghanistan.

What happened to the Doha Agreement? Why are Turkiye and Qatar not intervening now?

Right now, they are all focused on the Middle East war.

In the past, they somehow managed to work out a ceasefire agreement, but two incidents changed things.

The first one was the attack by Islamic State of Khorasan Province on a Shia mosque in Islamabad, which had no connection with the Afghan Taliban, and the second one was the killing of a Pakistani army colonel by the TTP which led to Pakistan's attack on Afghanistan the very next day.

Impact on Regional Stability

How might this conflict impact regional stability in South Asia over the coming months?

Right now, it looks like a localised affair which is a confrontation between the two countries. It can spill over as the Afghanistan-Pakistan border has been closed for the last five months, causing economic hardship to millions.

Overall, the economic development of all countries in the region is getting affected.

The other issue is militancy and terrorism. The more Pakistan becomes weak to deal with these elements, the more these groups will increase their number, which can destabilise Pakistan.

And a destabilised Pakistan through terror or violence is not good for India.