'Geopolitical Realities Have Turned Afghanistan And Pakistan Into Enemies'

'Islamabad feels it has no alternative, but to address the challenges from the Afghan-Taliban through an open war.'

"The challenges faced by Pakistan are homemade and homegrown," says Amalendu Misra, professor of International Politics, Lancaster University, UK.

In an e-mail interview with Rediff's Archana Masih, Professor Misra discusses Pakistan's accusation that Afghanistan is 'a proxy of India', what caused the shift in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations from friends to enemies and the reasons behind Pakistan's military strikes in Afghanistan.

Pakistan Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif has said 'Our patience has run out. Now there is an open war.' What does this portend in the days ahead in the escalation between Pakistan and Afghanistan?

Islamabad is prepared to engage in conventional war with Kabul. It feels it has no alternative, but to address the challenges from the Afghan-Taliban through an open war.

This precedes months of tension between the countries, how is it going to impact the geo-politics of the region?

Given that the international community -- especially, the US and Russia -- are engaged in their own wars or preparations for war elsewhere, they are unlikely to make a lot of protest against Islamabad's war positioning.

This is definitely a challenging time for both Beijing and New Delhi as both share close relationship with the isolated Taliban regime.

What do you see as the main reasons for the repeated clashes? Why are the two neighbours who started out as friends at war with each other?

The clashes are as much political as they are ethnic in nature. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan have unresolved border issues.

The cross-border Pashtun ethnicity gives ammunition to Afghanistan to undermine Pakistan's power and position -- most notably its ability to govern the restive region bordering Afghanistan.

Pakistan had recognised the first Taliban government 1996-2001, supported the Taliban and welcomed their coming to power in 2021.
It was believed that the Taliban had better relations with Pakistan which was a concern for India because India did not recognise the Taliban. did the Pakistani establishment misread the Taliban?

As someone has said, a day is a long time in politics. We are talking about a generational shift. The geopolitics of this age is different from what it was in the 1990s.

Geopolitical realities, priorities, issues of national interest have all come to dominate the Afghanistan-Pakistan statecraft.

Little wonder both Afghanistan and Pakistan consider each other enemies.

Pakistan has blamed the Taliban's inability or refusal to control the banned Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan from conducting acts of terror on Pakistani soil.
Do you think the Taliban has the power to rein the TTP in view of their ideological kinship?

There is a deep internal dissent in Pakistan against the Punjabi-led dominance of the army, economy and the governing structure.

Tehrik-e-Taliban sought to break that mould in the past.

The challenges faced by Pakistan are homemade and homegrown.

Without Afghan support, the Tehrik-e-Taliban is still capable of fermenting terror within Pakistan as it plays on the dissent of a significant portion of Pakistanis.

Pakistan Defence Minister Khwaja Asif also called Afghanistan 'a colony and a proxy of India' and accused it of 'supporting anti-Pakistan terrorists'.
What is your assessment of that allegation?
Why is India's engagement with the Taliban government a cause of rancour and heartburn for Pakistan?

No surprise there. Islamabad feels isolated and rattled by New Delhi's recent overtures towards the regime in Kabul.

Accusing India is a favourite past time of the Pakistani military and political establishment for their internal woes.

What do you see as the reasons behind the turnaround in India-Taliban relations after having been at the receiving end of Taliban violence against its consulates and people in Afghanistan?

The current regime in Afghanistan appreciates the critical support of India when its back is against the wall. Isolated, it needs as much help as it can get.

India fits the bill.

How do you assess the evolution of India-Afghanistan relations? How does this impact Pakistan and China?

China is likely to maintain a neutral stance on the issue of Afghan-Pakistan armed engagement. Beijing seeks good relations with both. So it will continue to speak for a peaceful solution to the problem.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff